It’s the final NBA Cup group games on Saturday with some huge matchups, and plenty of scenarios still to play out, with only the Raptors and Lakers locked into the Quarter Finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
The Cavaliers head to Atlanta for their final group game of the NBA Cup and will need a strong performance to secure a wildcard spot in the Quarter Finals.
The Hawks are eliminated after their horrific performance against the Wizards a few days ago, and it will take a huge effort for them to bounce back against the quality of Cleveland.
Point difference is vital for the Cavs here — expect big minutes from their stars as they try to extend the final margin and boost their chances of advancing.
LEG 1 - Cavaliers -5.5
The Hawks were woeful in their last NBA Cup game against the Wizards, gifting Washington just their second win of the season.
As a result, Atlanta cannot qualify for the next phase of the NBA Cup, but the Cavaliers can. Although Cleveland cannot finish top of East Group A due to Toronto’s perfect record, they’ll be relying on the wildcard spot. The Cavs currently hold a +33 point difference and will look to build on that to maximise their chances of advancing.
LEG 2 - Jalen Johnson 8+ Rebounds
Johnson has been key to the Hawks’ start to the season in Trae Young’s absence.
He is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, and his rebound numbers have jumped 8% without Trae, up to 10.2 boards per game.
Last time Johnson faced the Cavs, he grabbed 13 rebounds, and he has hit 8+ rebounds in eight of his last nine games.
LEG 3 - Jalen Johnson 6+ Assists
Even if the Hawks don’t win, Johnson should have a major all-round impact.
He is averaging 7.8 assists per game without Young this season and has recorded 6+ assists in his last nine games.
Atlanta is effectively running Johnson at point guard, so another big assist game looks likely.
SAME GAME MULTI
Cavaliers -5.5 / Johnson 8+ Rebounds / Johnson 6+ Assists = $3.75
VALUE BET
Donovan Mitchell 35+ Points @ $3.30
I’m expecting more minutes for Donovan Mitchell here, as the Cavs will need to win by as much as possible if Detroit beats Orlando, given the Magic’s huge point differential.
Mitchell doesn’t usually play massive minutes, but in the seven games where he has played 35+, he’s averaged 34.1 points, hitting 35+ in three of them.
You’d assume Garland’s return reduces Mitchell’s output, but in Garland’s five games this season, Mitchell has still averaged 33.4 points.
He dropped 37 on the Hawks last time — more than capable of doing it again.
