It’s shaping up to be a fascinating NBA season, with so much movement in the off-season that several win total lines already look ripe for the taking.
Several contenders have retooled with major off-season moves, while others are starting with long injury lists or the reality of a stacked Western Conference.
Our 2025/26 NBA win total tips and predictions break down five of the best over/under plays on the board — from breakout candidates ready to surge past expectations, to fading teams that could slide down the standings.
Memphis Grizzlies
The West is absolutely stacked, so there have to be a few teams that fall away — and Memphis looks like one that could really struggle.
The Grizzlies replaced Desmond Bane with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which is a clear downgrade, and they’ve already been hit with injuries before the season has even started.
Jaren Jackson Jr has only just returned, Zach Edey is out indefinitely and Brandon Clarke isn’t expected back until December, leaving them light on for bigs.
Then there’s Ja Morant. He’s missing the start of the season with another ankle injury, and his ongoing lower-leg issues suggest another interrupted year ahead. If Morant can’t stay on the floor, the Grizzlies could completely bottom out.
LA Clippers
This might be the deepest roster in the league, and it has to be, given how many injury-prone vets they’ve assembled. But with this group, they can cover absences and still pile up wins.
The Clippers won 50 games last season with Kawhi playing only 37. Despite losing Norman Powell to Miami, they’ve reloaded by adding Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Brook Lopez and John Collins. Their depth is absurd.
With Bogdan Bogdanovic and Derrick Jones Jr off the bench, Kris Dunn and Nicolas Batum still in the mix, plus a breakout season from Ivica Zubac last year, it’s hard to see how Ty Lue’s side doesn’t match last season’s 50-win tally, and that’s before even mentioning James Harden.
Indiana Pacers
It’s hard to doubt a Rick Carlisle team, but too much change in Indiana makes it unlikely they’ll replicate last year’s success.
Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season after rupturing his Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals, while Myles Turner is now in Milwaukee. That’s two of their three best players gone.
The Pacers now lack a true centre, and although Andrew Nembhard will take over at point guard, he won’t come close to Haliburton’s output. Bennedict Mathurin steps into the starting five and could be a Most Improved candidate, but his decision-making and shot selection remain question marks.
This season feels like a reset year until Haliburton returns in 2026–27.
New York Knicks
New York had a strong off-season and I’ve marked them as the top seed in the East.
Depth was a real issue last year. Beyond their starting group, the bench was thin, and injuries to Mitchell Robinson exposed that even further. His return, after a strong postseason showing, will make a big difference under new coach Mike Brown.
The Knicks have also added Jordan Clarkson to provide scoring punch off the bench, and Guerschon Yabusele from Philadelphia, who should comfortably play 20 minutes a night.
In a weak Eastern Conference, this team could easily push 60 wins.
Orlando Magic
Ignore last season’s 41–41 record. Their three best players shared the court only six times across 82 games.
Jalen Suggs still has a few question marks, but adding Desmond Bane completely changes their offensive outlook by giving them a consistent perimeter threat.
If Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero can stay healthy, this team should fly past 50 wins. Two years ago they won 47, with Banchero averaging 22 and Wagner just under 20. Both have improved since then, and that duo could become one of the best scoring combinations in the league.
Wendell Carter has looked sharp in the preseason, and the addition of Tyus Jones is a major upgrade at point guard.
