The 2025/26 NBA MVP race is wide open, with Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic leading a stacked field of contenders. Recent history shows the award favours stars in their mid-to-late twenties on winning teams, making this one of the toughest MVP markets to call.
Our NBA MVP preview and betting tips break down the leading chances, highlight key stats behind past winners, and uncover the best value plays in this year’s market.
Best Bet
Everything points to this being the year Luka Doncic claims his first MVP.
He appears to have come into the season in great shape, and with LeBron ruled out to start the year, it feels like a genuine changing of the guard in Los Angeles.
Luka fits the typical MVP profile: 13 of the last 14 winners have been aged between 25 and 28, and 13 of the last 14 have averaged 26+ points per game — numbers Doncic should reach with ease.
The key factor will be wins. The teams of 12 of the last 14 MVPs have finished with a win percentage of 65% or better, meaning Doncic will likely need to lead the Lakers to at least 54 victories. If he does that, he’ll be a deserving winner.
Next Best
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander @ $3.50
Narrative plays a huge role in MVP voting — just ask Joel Embiid in 2023. For SGA to go back-to-back, he’ll need to improve on what was already an incredible season, averaging 32.7 points per game last year.
He still ticks every box for MVP criteria: age, production and team success. If OKC finish near the top of the West again, he’ll be right in the mix.
There was some criticism late last season about his foul-drawing tactics, and while minor, things like that can influence voters. Even so, expect SGA to be among the frontrunners again.
Value Bet
Banchero looked set for a breakout season last year, averaging 29 points per game through Orlando’s first five contests before injury sidelined him for ten weeks.
The Magic have upgraded their roster during the off-season and look every chance to finish top four in the East. If their core stays healthy, they could even push for a 60-win season in what shapes as a weak conference.
If that happens with Banchero leading the charge and putting up similar numbers, the fourth-year star could easily find himself in the MVP conversation.
