2025 NRL Grand Final Betting Predictions
For the first time since 2019, the Penrith Panthers are sitting at home on Grand Final day. So it will be the Melbourne Storm (2nd) taking on the Brisbane Broncos (4th) in a rematch of the 2006 decider. That was the last time the Broncos won a GF (Brisbane won 15-8). For the Storm, they're going for the first title since 2020. Here's a look at the Grand Final best bets.
Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (4th)
The Storm head into the 2025 NRL decider as the favourites after back-to-back finals wins over the Sharks and Bulldogs at AAMI Park. The 22-14 win over the Sharks last week showed some positive signs for the Storm. Jahrome Hughes made a successful return from a wrist injury and scored one of the great solo tries in the 15th minute. Ryan Papenhuyzen was also back in the lineup after concussion issues and calf injuries this season. He also found the line, thanks to a beautiful kick by Cam Munster. With the spine of Grant, Munster and Hughes back on the park, the Storm looked dangerous against the Sharks.
Coming into the 2025 Grand Final, the hurt of the 2024 loss against the mighty Panthers should be a good motivator and starting well should be the key. They have won the first half in 6 of their last 8 games. The lineup is also looking settled with no changes from the team that beat the Sharks. Wishart off the bench will be a key matchup against Mam, especially in the late stages with tired forwards.
In the try scoring markets, Will Warbrick has been a try-scoring machine since returning to the side, scoring in 3 straight. That also includes a 60th min try against Brisbane in the last round of the season. Ryan Papenhuyzen comes off another try in the finals, making it 8 times in 10 attempts that he has scored a finals try when the Storm are betting favourites. Eli Katoa didn't find the line last week but still has 3 tries in 4 games, should be hard to stop if he gets inside the 10 or in the air.
The Broncos ended the Panthers Grand Final streak with a electric comeback at Suncorp last week. Down 14-0 at the half, things weren't looking good and the Broncos were sloppy in attack. But a Staggs try in the 47th min sparked them and 2 late tries were the key. Along with Adam Reynolds nailing a conversion in the last 4 mins. They come into the Grand Final as outsiders but I don't think they'll mind it. Michael "Madge" Maguire will have them ready for everything the Storm will throw at them.
They also get the services of Patty Carrigan back into the lock position after he missed last week with suspension. Ben Talty is the unlucky one to make way. Otherwise, the Broncos will go with a similar lineup as last week. They'll have Hunt at five-eighth to start with then Mam will come off the bench, moving Hunt to hooker. That covers the injury to Billy Walters nicely.
Looking at the try scoring markets for the Broncos, there are some trends to note. On the wing, Josiah Karapani didn't score last week but the Storm haven't been great at defending wingers and he's got 5 tries in his last 6 games. Staggs did score last week and is always tough to tackle. He's scored in 5 of his last 6.
Craig Bellamy will have a plan to shut down the influence of Reece Walsh, but he has scored in 5 of his last 6 games, including a double against the Storm in Round 27. Shibasaki scored in the 1st final against the Raiders and has 4 tries in his last 5 games.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at Stadium Australia, the Melbourne Storm hold a 7-3 record. Brisbane hold a 2-3 record over its last 5 games at Stadium Australia.
Head to Head Record
The Storm have a 8-2 record in the last 10 games against the Brisbane Broncos.
Best Bet
While Melbourne has dominated the Broncos over the last decade, I can see this being a close Grand Final. The Broncos would have gained a lot more confidence after beating Penrith and will be desperate to end a 19 year premiership drought. So I think there's merit in taking the Broncos at the underdog line as they have covered in both finals thus far. But I think going for a high scoring affair should be a good bet. Both sides have plenty of attacking weapons and the trends say this will be a high scoring affair. Over the last 9 finals at Stadium Australia, the Over is 7-2. In the clash between these two sides a month ago, the result was 44 pts (30-14) and Hughes was injured mid-way through that game. Plus Harry Grant didn't play. Hopefully, no rain in Sydney should see a dry game as well.
NRL Grand Final Same Game Multi - Storm v Broncos
Leg #1 - Broncos +6.5
In the first leg, I'm going with a safe bet - the Broncos to cover. In both finals, the margin has been 1 pt (Raiders) and 2 pts (Panthers), so they love a close final. Melbourne doesn't have a great record of covering the line at Accor, going 0-4 ATS. So take the Broncos to keep the margin under a converted try.
Leg #2 - Will Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer
Warbrick is a matchup nightmare on the wing as one of the strongest wingers in the NRL. He's coming off scoring a try in both finals wins for the Storm and Melbourne have gone away from the Coates kick in the air. So Warwick is getting more ball inside the 20 metres. His record against Brisbane is excellent too. He's scored a total of 7 tries in his last 4 games.
Leg #3 - Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer
Karapani comes off a try-less game against the Panthers but should have a better shot against Melbourne. He has scored 1+ tries in 4 of his last 5 games and found the line in the Broncos 30-14 win over Melbourne in Round 27. The Storm also gave up 2 tries to a winger against the Sharks last week.
Same Game Multi
Broncos +6.5 / Will Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer / Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer = $7.00
Value Leg - Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer
Staggs offers some nice value to score. He's got 5 tries in 6 of his last 6 games and scored a massive try when the Broncos needed it last week. Melbourne have also conceded a try to a centre in both finals, so that's a good trend for Sunday's Grand Final.
Clive Churchill Medalist
Who will take out the Clive Churchill medal? Here's a look at some of the contenders for man of the match
Harry Grant: He missed the 2020 Grand Final win so he'll be desperate for his first ever NRL Grand Final win. If he can grab a try out of dummy half, he should be a good bet to win it but I do prefer Munster.
Cameron Munster: A Clive Churchill medal would cap a great year from Munster after captaining the Maroons to an Origin series victory. He looked fresh last week and is a big game player. The loss of his father earlier this season should be a motivation factor for Cam too. Definitely in the running if the Storm win.
Reece Walsh: If the Broncos win this Grand Final, Walsh will be the key. He dominated the Storm back in Round 27 with 2 tries. But I have a feeling that Bellamy will shut him down this time.
Payne Haas: A massive game from Haas last week as he put the Broncos on his back in an 80-minute prop masterclass. That included 20 runs for 182 run metres and 82 post contact metres. Not to mention, he made 46 tackles as well. The Storm will try to tire him out as well and after such a big effort, it will be interesting to see how he backups on a shorter week compared to Melbourne. Forwards don't usually win this medal so there are probably better options.
Jahrome Hughes: Back from injury last week and scored one of the great finals tries. His kicking game will be important and he's one of the best running halfbacks in the game. If he scores a try, he should be in the running.
Adam Reynolds: Also returned from a hamstring injury and nailed a late game conversion to get the Broncos into the decider. If the Broncos win, he'll be in the conversation but he'll likely need to find a try.
Ryan Papenhuyzen: Back in 2020, a younger Papenhuyzen took home this medal and if he continues his try-scoring record in big finals, he offers massive value.
