2025 NRL Preliminary Finals Betting Predictions
A spot in the 2025 NRL Grand Final is on the line this weekend for the 4 teams remaining. The action kicks off in Melbourne on Friday night as the Storm look to make back to back Grand Finals. The Sharks will be looking to make the GF for the first time since their 2016 victory. Then on Sunday afternoon, it's a rematch of the Broncos and Panthers 2023 GF.
Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th)
The Storm earned a home final and week off with a gritty win over the Dogs in the 1st week of the finals. Without halfback Jahrome Hughes, big Nelson and Papi at fullback, Melbourne got the job done 26-18.
The good news for the Storm coming into this matchup against Cronulla - Hughes and Papenhuyzen are back in the lineup along with Shawn Blore. So that will see Wishart on the bench and the unlucky Jonah Pezet into the reserves. Grant Anderson can also count himself as unlucky, dropping to the reserves with Warwick back in the side. But we know that Bellamy likes to make late changes, so look out.
Looking at some trends, the Storm are almost unstoppable in finals at home after a break. They've won their last 11 in a row. Starting well will be a big key as they've won the 1st half in 7 straight games when they come off a 10+ day break. In the try scorer markets, Eliesa Katoa is massive value. He scored the 1st try last week and has scored in 3 straight games.
Papenhuyzen is a big performer in the finals, he's scored 1 or more tries in his last 3 Preliminary Finals. Hughes also offers nice value to find the line, he's scored in 3 of his last 4 home games. Warbrick is back on the wing for the Storm and got an intercept try last week. He has scored in 2 of 3 games since returning from a concussion.
The Sharks head to Melbourne with a lot of confidence after 2 big wins. They smashed the 1st placed Raiders last week in Canberra 32-12 and beat the Roosters 20-10 in the 1st week of the finals. Cronulla's defence has been impressive in the finals, allowing 12 or fewer pts in both wins. That will be a key factor when they head to AAMI Park, since they lost 30-6 in Round 17.
Ronaldo Mulitalo continued his hot form with another try last week, he's now scored 8 tries in his last 5 games. He also scored in the Sharks win over Melbourne in Round 11. Sione Katoa has scored in 2 of his last 5 games against the Storm. KL Iro comes off a try against the Raiders and also found the line in his last matchup against Melbourne back in Round 11.
In team news, the Sharks have lost Thomas Hazelton to a concussion but Oregon Kaufusi is a good replacement. Otherwise, the Sharks are looking settled and raring to go for this matchup.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at AAMI Park, the Melbourne Storm hold a 8-2 record. Cronulla has lost 4 of their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Melbourne Storm have a 7-3 record in the last 10 games against the Cronulla Sharks.
Best Bet
I think the Sharks are in a good position to give the Storm a scare. Their defence has been impressive thus far in the finals as they've kept the Roosters and Raiders to low totals. The Storm are a similar attacking side. Melbourne also has had a few injury concerns with no Hughes and Papen, so they might be a bit underdone. Take the Sharks to cover in a close one.
NRL Same Game Multi - Storm v Sharks
Leg #1 - Sharks +8.5
As mentioned, I think the Sharks have the side to rattle the Storm and keep this matchup under an 8.5 margin.
Leg #2 - Over 40.5 pts
I like the Over trend between these two sides in Melbourne. It has saluted in 6 of the last 7 meetings at this venue. The Sharks come off scoring 32 pts and the Storm's first final went over this mark.
Leg #3 - Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer
Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored in four of Cronulla's last 5 and looks the best bet to find the tryline.
Same Game Multi
Sharks +8.5 / Over 40.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer = $5.90
Value Leg - Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer
There isn't a better backrower to pick up a try than Eli Katoa. He can score them on the ground or in the air. With 3 straight games of scoring a try, let's hope he makes it 4.
Brisbane Broncos (4th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)
After a wild 29-28 victory in Canberra, the Broncos got the week off to prepare for redemption of the 2023 Grand Final defeat against this Panthers side. In his first season as head coach, Michael Maguire has done a great job getting this talented Broncos side up and about every week. So he would love to deliver the Broncos first premiership win since 2006.
The team lineup is a bit of a mixed bag. They get the experience of Adam Reynolds back in the side at halfback and Ezra Mam is back in the lineup, coming off the bench. So Ben Hunt will start at five-eighth (at this stage). However, QLD enforcer Patrick Carrigan is out with suspension and that's a big blow for their forward pack as they're going with Smoothy at lock. Billy Walters has also done his ACL and he's been massive for Brisbane this year.
But it really comes down to one man - Reece Walsh. If he plays well, the Broncos will likely win this clash. He was electric against the Raiders after his sin-bin. He's also scored 1 or more tries in 5 straight games, making him a good play in the anytime tryscorer markets. Karapani has also scored in 5 straight games. Kotonit Staggs has 5 tries in his last 5 games.
Here we go again. The Panthers are heading towards a 6th straight Grand Final appearance with just the Broncos in their way at Suncorp. Credit has to go to Penrith as they've done it the hard way this year. In the 1st week of the finals, they travelled to NZ and took down the Warriors 24-8. Then in the semis, they crushed the Doggies hopes with a massive first-half, winning 46-26 in the end.
Paul Alamoti scored a hat-trick in the win over the Dogs and now has a 6-1 record of scoring a try in his last 7 games. Brian To'o started things off last week with a try and finished with a double. He's now scored in 9 of his last 10 finals games and I can see him finding the line against Brisbane. Isaiah Papali'i has been a beast in the finals, scoring in both games and offers massive value to make it 3 straight. Cleary also has a good record of scoring a try at Suncorp.
In team news, the Panthers are very settled. They just have an issue with Liam Martin's ribs. But he's not missing a final over that. In the reserves, Tommy Jenkins and Eisenhuth could be late ins. But otherwise, the Panthers will likely go with the same 17.
Stadium Record
Brisbane hold a 4-1 record over its last 5 games. In their last 10 games at Suncorp, the Penrith hold a 8-2 record.
Head to Head Record
The Panthers have a 9-1 record in the last 10 games.
Best Bet
It is hard to back against a Panthers victory. They are now 14-0 in finals games and I think the Broncos are a bit unsettled. There's no Carrigan or Walters and Reynolds will be underdone. However, I think the Sunday afternoon slot will provide an entertaining and high scoring final. The Panthers were up 36-8 at half-time last week and scored 32 pts against Brisbane in the last meeting at Suncorp. Brisbane scored 29 pts against the Raiders in Canberra and will score pts if Walsh plays well.
NRL Same Game Multi - Broncos v Panthers
Leg #1 - Panthers +3.5
This is a safe bet if the Broncos come to play and give the Panthers a scare. Penrith have covered in 14 straight finals and I think they make it 15.
Leg #2 - Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer
In 9 of his last 10 finals, Brian To'o has scored a try. He comes off a double last week and should be hard to stop.
Leg #3 - Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer
Walsh is looking to make it 6 straight games with a try and I think he can get the job done.
Same Game Multi
Panthers +3.5 / Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer / Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer = $6.00
Value Leg - Nathan Cleary Anytime Tryscorer
Cleary has an excellent record at Suncorp against Brisbane, scoring in 4 of his last 5. The Panthers halfback offers some nice value for this SGM.
