Has Nick Daicos done enough to win his first Brownlow Medal after coming so close in 2023 and 2024?
|
Pos |
Player |
Club |
Votes |
Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
N.Daicos |
Coll |
29.75 |
$2.75 |
|
=2 |
M.Rowell |
GC |
28.00 |
$8.00 |
|
=2 |
B.Smith |
Geel |
28.00 |
$5.00 |
|
4 |
N.Anderson |
GC |
27.00 |
$7.00 |
|
5 |
T.Green |
GWS |
24.50 |
$51 |
|
6 |
C.Serong |
Fre |
24.00 |
$41 |
|
7 |
M.Bontempelli |
WB |
23.75 |
$101 |
|
=8 |
H.McCluggage |
BL |
23.00 |
$51 |
|
=8 |
Z.Butters |
PA |
23.00 |
$101 |
Best Bet
The Port Adelaide loss could prove costly for Suns duo Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, and it looks like Nick Daicos may have done enough in Collingwood’s win over Melbourne to secure the 2025 Brownlow Medal.
It wasn’t Daicos’ best performance in Round 24, but there’s always the chance of him polling given Collingwood don’t have too many big vote-getters around him. He’s probably done enough to hold on.
Lay
I don’t think the Crows skipper has done enough to poll in Adelaide’s win over North Melbourne, finishing with just 23 disposals and no goals.
As a result, we have Dawson finishing outside the top 10 on 22 votes, despite still being listed as second-equal favourite at the short quote of $5.
I’d be very surprised if Dawson takes home the 2025 Brownlow Medal.
Value
Green was best on ground in the Giants’ win over St Kilda and has drifted from $41 out to $51.
Contested possessions are a key driver of Brownlow success, and Green leads the competition in that category with 15.4 per game.
We’ve got Green polling 7.75 votes in GWS’ last three games of the season. If he’s within striking distance after Round 21, watch out for the Giant at odds.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
