AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 23 2025

Nick Daicos firmed in the market off the back of a strong showing in Collingwood’s loss to the Crows, has he locked away the 2025 Brownlow Medal?

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $10

Based on our numbers, it is now a three-horse race between Nick Daicos and the two Gold Coast Suns, and the $10 for Rowell looks very appealing in that context.

We have him just a three-vote game off Daicos, but with two matches left against Port Adelaide and Essendon, both limping to the line, Rowell is in a terrific position.

Melbourne have also done well against Daicos recently. We do not have him polling in this year’s game with Ed Langdon tagging him closely, while in last year’s Queen’s Birthday clash he managed only 15 disposals in three quarters before being subbed, though he still polled a vote.

Expect Rowell’s price to shorten in the weeks ahead. At $10, he is the bet.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.50

When was the last time a player won the Brownlow while ranking outside the top 40 for contested possessions per game? You have to go back 22 years to Adam Goodes in 2003, in a three-way tie.

Dawson sits 43rd in the AFL in this stat (minimum 10 games). Goodes was the lowest ranked player ever to win the medal in this category, also 43rd, and no one else outside the top 40 has done it since contested possessions were first recorded in 1999.

Nick Daicos is not elite in this category either, which makes for a fascinating count, but knowing this history I could not back Dawson at $4.50.

Value

Tom Green @ $41

When Tom Green has had 25 or more disposals and a goal in a win, he has almost always polled three votes. That trend was clear in 2024 when he polled 27 votes.

This year he has produced that stat line in seven matches. If he polls maximum votes in all of them, plus picks up the odd one or two-vote game elsewhere, he will be right in the mix.

We have Green at 21.75 votes in this count, just entering the top eight after a big weekend. For context, last year we projected him at 21.23 and he finished with 27. If he outperforms his projection again, he is firmly in top-three calculations.

The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.