2025 AFL Round 23 Betting Predictions
Just 2 more weeks until the finals and the top 8 is still yet to be confirmed so it's a big weekend for some teams. Thursday night footy kicks off with the Bombers and Saints at Marvel. Let's see if Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera can keep his 30+ disposal streak going.
Essendon (15th) vs St Kilda (11th)
The Bombers have had a tough season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 6-14 record and coming into this clash on a 10-game losing streak. They’ve struggled both home (4-5) and away (2-9), and their recent form hasn’t been much better with five straight losses, including a 109-65 defeat to the Cats at Kardinia Park last week. While they’ve shown they can rack up possessions – ranking 3rd in the AFL for disposals – the Bombers have had major issues converting that into scoreboard pressure, ranking 16th for goals kicked and clearances, and 15th for inside 50 entries. Last week, Archie Roberts was a standout with 33 disposals, while Liam McMahon chipped in four goals, but they’ll need much more across the board to trouble the Saints.
The Saints come into this one in decent form, sitting 11th on the ladder with an 8-13 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’ve been a bit hit-and-miss at home (5-7) and away (3-6) this season, but recent results have been promising, winning three of their last five. Last week, they edged out Richmond by four points at the MCG, slotting eight goals in a gritty contest. Ball-winners Jack Sinclair (30 disposals), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (33), and Marcus Windhager (32) led the charge, although the Saints still struggle getting the ball inside 50, ranking 14th in the AFL for that stat. If they can tidy up their forward entries, they’ll fancy their chances against the Bombers.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. St Kilda are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Both sides are out of the finals race so hopefully they play attractive footy. The Over is 5-1 in the Saints last 6 at Marvel so let's hope they go all out attack.
Same Game Multi
The Saints are looking for a 4th straight win and I think they get the job done against the injury riddled Bombers who have lost 10 straight. Wanganeen-Milera has collected 30+ touches in 4 straight games and I don't see him slowing down against the young Bombers.
Over 168.5 pts / Saints Win / Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 30+ Disposals = $3.10
Fremantle (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)
The Dockers are flying at the moment, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 15-6 record and riding a five-game winning streak. They’ve been tough to beat both at home (8-2) and on the road (7-4), and last week they got the job done against Port Adelaide, winning by six points at Adelaide Oval after booting 13 goals. Patrick Voss was lively up forward with three majors, and while the Dockers don’t rack up huge disposal numbers – ranking 16th in the AFL in that stat – they’re making the most of their opportunities and finding ways to win. With their current form, they’ll be full of confidence heading into this clash with the Lions.
The Lions sit 5th on the ladder with a strong 14-6 record and have been a real force on the road this season, going 8-1-2 away from home. They’re one of the AFL’s best when it comes to winning the ball, ranking 1st for clearances, 2nd for disposals, and 2nd for inside 50 entries, which makes them dangerous against any side. That said, tackling pressure has been a weakness, with the Lions sitting 14th in that area. They’re coming off a narrow two-point loss to the Swans at the Gabba, with Josh Dunkley (31 disposals), Hugh McCluggage (30), and Will Ashcroft (31) all finding plenty of the footy, while Logan Morris chipped in three goals. Despite dropping that last game, their recent 3-2 run and overall form suggests they’ll be right in the mix against the Dockers.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions are 7-3 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
The Lions are a good bounce back team and love an underdog tag, having covered in their last 14 as underdogs. They also step up against top 4 teams and I think Freo were below their best last week against the Power.
Gold Coast Suns (6th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Suns are enjoying a strong season, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 14-6 record and coming into this clash on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been dominant at home (8-1) and solid on the road (6-5), and last week they knocked over Carlton by 19 points at Docklands, slotting 13 goals. Ben King was on fire with six majors, Ben Long added three, and Matthew Rowell racked up 30 disposals in a standout performance. Statistically, the Suns are one of the league’s most dangerous outfits – ranked 1st for inside 50 entries, 3rd for clearances, 4th for goals kicked, and 5th for tackles – making them a tough proposition for the Giants this week.
The Giants are sitting 8th on the ladder with a 14-7 record and head into this clash having won four of their last five. They’re coming off a big 54-point win over North Melbourne at Manuka Oval, where they piled on 20 goals. Callum M. Brown was the standout up forward with five majors, while Aaron Cadman (4), Toby Greene (3), and Jake Stringer (3) all hit the scoreboard, and Finn Callaghan led the disposals with 31. The Giants are one of the AFL’s best ball-using sides, ranking 4th for disposals and 5th for goals kicked, but clearances remain an issue with the side sitting 14th in that category. With solid records both at home (7-3) and away (7-4), they’ll back themselves to challenge the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Giants have won 9 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
Day conditions should be great for attacking footy and the Over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 day games.
Carlton (14th) vs Port Adelaide (12th)
The Blues have had a rough run this season, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 7-14 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. They’ve struggled to find consistency both at home (4-7) and on the road (3-7), and last week they went down to the Suns by 19 points at Docklands. While their tackling pressure is a clear strength – ranked 2nd in the AFL – they’ve had trouble converting opportunities, sitting 14th for goals kicked. Harry McKay and Francis Evans were among the few bright spots last round, booting three and four goals respectively, but they’ll need a more complete performance to challenge the Power.
The Power sit 12th on the ladder with an 8-13 record but come into this one on a four-game losing streak. They’ve been much better at home (6-5) than on the road (2-8) and are coming off a narrow six-point defeat to the Dockers at Adelaide Oval. Scoring and ball use have been problem areas, with the Power ranking 15th in the AFL for both disposals and goals kicked. With just one win from their last five, they’ll be desperate to turn things around against the Blues and keep their season from slipping further away.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Power are 7-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
Port have been decent recently without winning and Carlton have pretty much checked out. The Underdog is 4-0 in the Blues last 4 and they're 0-6 at Marvel.
Hawthorn (7th) vs Melbourne (13th)
The Hawks are sitting 7th on the ladder with a 14-7 record and have been rock solid at home this season, winning nine of ten games. They’re coming off a massive 64-point demolition of Collingwood at the MCG, where they booted 17 goals. Jack Gunston led the way with four majors, while Mabior Chol and Lloyd Meek chipped in three each. Ranked 5th in the AFL for disposals, the Hawks know how to find the footy, and with three wins from their last five, they’ll head into this clash with the Demons full of confidence.
The Demons have had a tough year, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 7-14 record and just two wins from their last five games. They’ve struggled away from home (2-7) and aren’t much better at the MCG (5-7), and tackling pressure has been a clear weakness, ranking 15th in the AFL. Last week, they went down to the Bulldogs by six points at the ‘G in a tight contest. With 14 losses for the season and coming off another narrow defeat, they’ll need to lift if they’re going to trouble the in-form Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 4-1 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under has a solid 8-0 record when the Hawks are at the MCG and I think their defence will test the Dees.
Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Collingwood (3rd)
The Crows are flying at the moment, sitting on top of the ladder with a 16-5 record and riding a seven-game winning streak. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home (10-1) and strong on the road (6-4), and last week they edged out West Coast by nine points at Perth Stadium, kicking 13 goals. Riley Thilthorpe and Luke Pedlar both slotted three majors in the win. Statistically, the Crows are a powerhouse – ranked 5th for clearances, 3rd for goals kicked, 4th for inside 50s, and 3rd for tackles – and with five straight wins to close out their last five, they’ll be full of confidence heading into the clash with the Magpies.
The Magpies are still sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 15-6 record, but their form has dipped with just one win from their last five games and back-to-back losses. They were well beaten by the Hawks last week at the MCG, going down 110-46, and will be looking for a big response. They’ve been strong both at home (8-3) and away (7-3) this season, and their tackling pressure is elite, ranked 1st in the AFL. However, clearances and disposals have been problem areas, with the Pies sitting 14th in both categories. They’ll need to tidy those up if they’re going to match it with the ladder-leading Crows.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Collingwood are 9-4 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Magpies are 9-0 (1 draw) against the Crows.
Best Bet
If the Pies can sort out their backline issues, I think they can give the Crows a scare. They love playing in Adelaide at night with an 6-0 ATS record and have won 9 straight over the Crows.
North Melbourne (17th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Kangaroos have had a rough season, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 4-16 record and on a seven-game losing streak. They’ve only managed two wins at home and two on the road, and last week they went down to the Giants by 54 points at Manuka Oval, conceding 20 goals. Jack Darling and Cooper Trembath each kicked three majors, while Harry Sheezel was busy with 31 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to turn things around. The Roos are strong at clearances, ranked 4th in the AFL, but they’ve really struggled getting the ball inside 50, sitting 17th in that stat. They’ll need a lift in attack if they’re going to trouble the Tigers.
The Tigers are sitting 16th on the ladder with a 5-16 record and head into this clash on a three-game losing streak. They’ve struggled badly on the road (1-9) and haven’t been much better at home (4-7). Last week, they went down to the Saints by just four points at the MCG in a tight one. Statistically, it’s been a tough year, with the Tigers ranking near the bottom of the AFL in almost every key area – 17th for clearances and disposals, and dead last for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. With only two wins from their last five games, they’ll need a huge lift to get past the Roos.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-8 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Bellerive Oval. Richmond are 0-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
This should be a low scoring clash and the Under is 8-1 in the last 9.
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)
The Swans are sitting 10th on the ladder with an 11-10 record and have hit some good form, winning four of their last five and their past two on the trot. They’ve been pretty balanced this year with a 5-5 home record and 6-5 on the road, and last week they pulled off a thrilling two-point win over the Lions at the Gabba, slotting 13 goals. Isaac Heeney was the star of the show with five majors, and with their confidence building, the Swans will be looking to keep the momentum going against the Cats.
The Cats are in hot form, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 15-6 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They’ve been strong both at home (9-2) and away (6-4), and last week they made light work of Essendon at Kardinia Park, winning by 44 points after kicking 15 goals. Jeremy Cameron led the way with four majors, while Shannon Neale and Shaun Mannagh added three each, and Bailey Smith racked up 31 disposals. Statistically, the Cats are one of the league’s most dangerous sides – ranked 2nd for goals kicked, 3rd for inside 50s, and 4th for tackles – making them a tough opponent for the Swans this week.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-5 in their last 10 games at SCG. Geelong are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
Sydney have found form with Gulden back and Heeney kicking bags for fun. Geelong are also kicking plenty of points behind Cameron so I like the Over at the SCG.
Western Bulldogs (9th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Bulldogs are sitting 9th on the ladder with a 13-8 record and come into this clash on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been solid both home (6-4) and away (7-4), and last week they edged out Melbourne by six points at the MCG, booting 15 goals. Aaron Naughton was the main target up forward with five majors, while Marcus Bontempelli (33 disposals), Ed Richards (31), and Bailey Dale (30) were prolific with the footy. Statistically, the Dogs are a powerhouse – ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals and goals kicked, 2nd for clearances, and 5th for inside 50s – though tackling pressure remains a weakness, sitting 15th in that area. With their current form, they’ll back themselves to handle the Eagles.
It’s been a nightmare season for the Eagles, who sit last on the ladder with a 1-20 record and are stuck in an 11-game losing streak. They haven’t managed a win on the road (0-11) and have only one victory at home (1-9), with last week bringing a narrow nine-point loss to the Crows at Perth Stadium. Liam Ryan and Jobe Shanahan each kicked three goals, but the side continues to struggle across the board – ranked last in the AFL for clearances and disposals, and near the bottom for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. With numbers like that, they face a huge challenge trying to match it with the in-form Bulldogs.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Doggies love a fast paced and high scoring game and the Eagles were decent against the Crows last week. So take the Over, which is 5-1 when the Dogs are at Marvel.
