2025 NRL Round 22 Betting Predictions
The NRL top 9 is far from set and Round 22 will be another important one for teams looking at a shot of Grand Final glory. The action starts on Thursday night footy with the Eels looking for another upset as they host the Storm at CommBank.
Parramatta Eels (14th) vs Melbourne Storm (3rd)
The Eels edged the Broncos 22‑20 in Round 21, but that thriller masked a season‑long habit of shooting themselves in the foot: only three sides make more errors, and their attack ranks a lowly 15th for points and 14th for tries. Home turf hasn’t been a fortress (3‑5) and travelling’s even tougher (3‑7), so they’ll need a near‑perfect 80 minutes to keep pace with Melbourne’s clinical Storm outfit.
The Storm are coming into this clash against the Eels with a slick 13‑5 record and momentum to burn—four wins from their last five and a tidy 6‑3 mark on the road. They’re the NRL’s points‑scoring and try‑scoring kings, so you can bet they’ll be hunting the scoreboard early even without Hughes (gone for the regular season). Luckily, Papenhuyzen’s back patrolling the backfield and the rest of the spine still hums. Sitting third on the ladder and boasting a 7‑2 home slate, Melbourne just dropped 34 on the Roosters in Round 21; if they find that same rhythm, the under‑fire Eels might be chasing shadows all night.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 5-5 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Storm have won 5 games against the Eels.
Best Bet
The Storm are going to miss Hughes in attack and Parra come off a nice win over the Broncos on the road. So I like the chances of the Under, which is 8-0 when the Eels host the Storm.
Same Game Multi
I think the Eels can keep this close and +20.5 is a safe bet. Moses is back at halfback and they just beat the Broncos in Brisbane. Harry Grant loves playing Parra, scoring a try in his last 6 against them. He also crossed last week and took over the attack when Hughes went off with injury.
Under 47.5 pts / Eels +20.5 / Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer = $12.00
New Zealand Warriors (4th) vs Dolphins (8th)
The Warriors roll into their showdown with the Dolphins still smarting from an eight‑point slip‑up against the Titans at Mount Smart, but overall they’re travelling nicely at 12‑6 and sitting fourth on the ladder. They’re rock‑solid both home and away (6‑3 on each front) and, crucially for punters, they keep their mistakes to a minimum—ranked 17th for errors in the comp. Form over the last month has been patchy 2‑3, yet when this side clicks, it turns field position into points in a hurry. Expect them to tighten the screws early and test the Dolphins’ discipline all night.
Fresh off a 43‑24 thumping of the Cowboys at Lang Park, the Dolphins will face off against the Warriors riding a 3‑2 patch and clinging to eighth on the ladder at 9‑9. They’re 5‑4 at home and 4‑5 on the road, but what really jumps off the page is their firepower—second‑best in the comp for both points and tries while keeping errors down (14th overall). If the attack hums like it did last week, and they keep the handling tidy, the Phins have every chance to turn this into a shoot‑out the Warriors mightn’t fancy.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Dolphins are 0-2 at this venue since 2023.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Warriors hold a 3-2 record against the Dolphins.
Best Bet
Interesting to see the Dolphins as favs in NZ. But I like the Over, which is 5-1 in the Dolphins last 6 night games and the Warriors defence struggled with the lowly Titans last week.
Brisbane Broncos (6th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (17th)
The Broncos hit this Rabbitohs clash sitting sixth on the ladder at 10‑8 and sporting a hot 4‑1 run across their last five, but that narrow two‑point slip‑up to the Eels at Lang Park shows they’re still prone to brain fades—no surprise for a side that ranks fifth‑worst for errors. When they keep the pill, though, they’re deadly: fourth in the comp for both points and tries, thanks to a slick spine and plenty of punch out wide. They’re a tidy 6‑3 at home but more vulnerable on the road (4‑5), so getting their attack to click early and minimising dropped ball will be key if they want to put the Bunnies on the back foot.
The Rabbitohs are buried in 17th spot (last) and riding an ugly eight‑game skid. They’ve dropped their last five, most recently falling 24‑22 to the Sharks at Polytec Stadium, and their season ledger sits at 6‑13. There is one silver lining: they don’t beat themselves too often, ranking a respectable 14th for errors. Trouble is, tidy hands haven’t translated into points—the Bunnies are second‑worst in the comp for both tries and total points. They’re only 4‑6 at home and an even shakier 2‑7 on the road, so unless the attack suddenly sparks, the red‑and‑green faithful could be in for another tough watch against a confident Broncos outfit.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. South Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Rabbitohs are 6-4 against the Broncos.
Best Bet
The Rabbitohs were awesome defensively last week and hopefully that continues against the Broncos as I like the Under. It's 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 too.
Gold Coast Titans (16th) vs Penrith Panthers (5th)
The Titans snagged a morale‑boosting 24‑16 win over the Warriors in Round 21, but it barely dents a rough season: they’re 5‑13 overall, stuck down in 16th, and just 1‑4 across the last month. Home form’s shaky at 2‑6 and travelling hasn’t been much prettier (3‑7), so rolling into a showdown with the Panthers feels like climbing Everest in thongs. If they’re going to spring an upset, they’ll need the same spark they showed last week—plus a lot more polish—because Penrith won’t hand out freebies.
Riding a seven‑game heater, the Panthers are looking like serious finals movers once again. They just flogged the Tigers 36‑2 at Western Sydney Stadium and have now rattled off five straight wins to climb to fifth at 10‑7 overall. Home turf has been serviceable (6‑4), but it’s their form everywhere that counts—think a tidy 4‑3 record on the road and a defence that’s tightened the screws week after week. If they unleash that same ruthless edge on the 16th‑placed Titans, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Penrith are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 9-1 against the Titans.
Best Bet
I think the Panthers do it easily as they look for a top 4 spot, they've covered the line in 5 straight games.
Penrith Panthers -12.5 = $1.85
St. George Illawarra Dragons (12th) vs Canberra Raiders (1st)
The Dragons limp into this clash with the Raiders on a four‑game slide, fresh off a 38‑32 shoot‑out loss to the Cowboys up in Townsville. Their season ledger sits at 6‑12, and the recent form is ugly—just one win from the last five. They’re break‑even at home (4‑4) but road trips have been brutal (2‑8), so Canberra will fancy their chances. If the Red V can tighten a defence that’s been leaking tries and rediscover some spark with the ball, they might hang around, but right now momentum’s all pointing green.
The Raiders swagger into this one atop the ladder at 16‑3, riding a nine‑game heater and fresh off a 44‑18 demolition of the Knights in Canberra. They’re lethal pretty much everywhere—7‑2 on the road, 9‑1 at home—and the numbers back it up: third for points, second for tries, and way down the pecking order for errors, which means they hardly hand the ball over. With five straight wins in their back pocket and an attack humming, the Green Machine looks set to roll on unless the Dragons can spring a major ambush.
Stadium Record
St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at WIN Stadium. Canberra are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Raiders are 8-2 against the Dragons.
Best Bet
The Over is 7-1 in the Dragons last 8 and the Raiders are scoring points like no tomorrow.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (9th) vs Sydney Roosters (10th)
The Sea Eagles are coming into this clash sitting 9‑9 and clinging to ninth spot, but they’ve got plenty to prove after copping a 42‑4 hiding from the Bulldogs at the SFS. Home’s been a decent fortress at 6‑3, yet their 3‑6 road record shows the wheels can wobble away from Brookie. Form’s patchy at 3‑2 over the last five, so consistency is the big question—if they shake off last week’s shocker and bring their usual home‑ground grunt, they can push the Roosters, but another slow start could see them chasing feathers all night.
The Roosters are riding a two‑game skid after falling four points short of the Storm at the SFS. They’re dead‑even on the road (4‑4) but shaky at home (4‑6), and handling’s been a killer — they cough it up more than all but two sides. Still, when they hang onto the pill they can light it up, sitting fifth for points and fourth for tries, so the attack’s never the worry. If they can tighten up the errors and channel that scoring punch, they’ve got every chance to ruffle the Sea Eagles’ feathers.
Stadium Record
Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at 4 Pines Park. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have won 6 games against the Sea Eagles.
Best Bet
The Under is 5-0 when the Sea Eagles are at home and I think this will be like a tough finals clash as both sides look to make the top 8.
Wests Tigers (13th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (2nd)
The Tigers are sitting 13th at 7‑12, and the attack is still MIA — they’re 14th for both points and tries, which showed in last week’s 36‑2 thumping from the Panthers at Western Sydney. They’ve split their last five 2‑3, but home turf hasn’t been kind (3‑6) and they’re only a touch better on the road (4‑6). If they can’t find some spark with the ball, they’ll be leaning hard on hustle and hope to keep this one within striking distance.
The Bulldogs come into this one sitting second on the ladder at 14‑4, firing on a three‑game heater after hammering Manly 42‑4 at the SFS. They’re rock‑solid wherever they play—7‑2 both home and away—and while the last five have been a mixed 3‑2, the overall form screams contender. If they bring the same ruthless edge they showed against the Sea Eagles, the Tigers could be chasing their tails all night.
Stadium Record
Wests are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Canterbury are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Doggies elite defence should continue what Penrith did last week and that should see the Under salute. It's also 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 at this stadium.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (7th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (11th)
The Sharks come into this clash on a handy three‑game roll, fresh from edging the Rabbitohs 14‑12 in Round 21. They’re 11‑8 overall and perched seventh, with a real Jekyll‑and‑Hyde split: deadly at Shark Park (7‑2) but shakier on the highway (4‑6). Still, three wins from their past five suggests they’re finding rhythm, and if they channel that home‑ground sting, the Cowboys could be in for a choppy night.
The Cowboys head into Shark Park sitting 11th at 7‑11, still blowing a bit hot‑and‑cold despite last week’s 38‑32 shoot‑out win over the Dragons up in Townsville. They’re a scratchy 2‑3 across their past five and road trips have been a headache all year (3‑6), while even at home they’ve split results 4‑5. Ball control’s the killer—only one team coughs it up more—so if they can’t tidy those errors, the Sharks’ home‑ground bite could make life ugly in a hurry.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 5-7 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Sharks hold a 8-2 record against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
The Cowboys give up plenty of points each week and the Over is 4-1 when the Sharks face North QLD on their home turf.
