We have another new leader for the third consecutive week on the Brownlow Leaderboard after Round 16, while a new entrant features in our top-eight who is currently listed at $151.
|
Pos |
Player |
Club |
Votes |
Odds |
|
1 |
Nick Daicos |
Collingwood |
18.50 |
$3.25 |
|
2 |
Caleb Serong |
Fremantle |
17.25 |
$12 |
|
3 |
Zak Butters |
Port Adelaide |
17.00 |
$51 |
|
4 |
Bailey Smith |
Geelong |
16.75 |
$4.00 |
|
5 |
Noah Anderson |
Gold Coast |
15.75 |
$13 |
|
6 |
Jordan Dawson |
Adelaide |
14.75 |
$4.00 |
|
7 |
Hugh McCluggage |
Brisbane Lions |
14.25 |
$26 |
|
8 |
Isaac Heeney |
Sydney |
13.75 |
$151 |
Best Bet
Nick Daicos now takes the lead on our Brownlow Leaderboard after Round 16, and being 1.75 votes ahead of Bailey Smith and still paying above $3, he remains our best bet.
Daicos faces Carlton next - a team in decline, and one he has teed off on last season polling five votes from their two games in 2024.
Expect more votes to come his way, while Bailey Smith will likely close with Richmond his Round 17 opponent.
Lay
Polled well below expectation in 2024, and although he’s taken his game to another level I just can’t have him as sixth favourite.
We’ve got Richards in equal-tenth place on our leaderboard, but the Bulldogs have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to players capable of polling on Brownlow night, in particular Marcus Bontempelli.
With the number of goals coming from their midfield, think we’ll be seeing an even spread across the board for the Bulldogs.
Value
Zak Butters was our value last week and he still is exactly that at $51 - into third on our leaderboard, but right behind him is Isaac Heeney.
Could the Swans make a late finals run led by this man? They should bank five of their last eight, they’re capable of beating the Giants as they did earlier in the season, plus the Cats at the SCG - so a chance to go 7 wins from their last 8 games.
So if they do manage to storm home, does Isaac Heeney storm home into Brownlow calculations?
Heeney is in peak Brownlow polling areas off the back of a breakout last year where he polled 28 votes. Very possible Heeney polls nine votes in Sydney’s last three games, and with the Swan moving into our top-eight on the leaderboard he’s within striking distance.
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
