Outside the top-8 after Round 13 - into outright 2nd after Round 14. It’s an incredibly tight Brownlow Medal Leaderboard and a $23 shot is well and truly in contention.
| Pos | Player | Club | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Smith | Geelong | 16.75 | $3.00 |
| 2 | Caleb Serong | Fremantle | 14.50 | $23 |
| 3 | Hugh McCluggage | Brisbane | 14 | $34 |
| 4 | Noah Anderson | Gold Coast | 14 | $17 |
| 5 | Zak Butters | Port Adelaide | 13.75 | $67 |
| =6 | Nick Daicos | Collingwood | 13.50 | $5.00 |
| =6 | Max Holmes | Geelong | 13.50 | $81 |
| 8 | Jordan Dawson | Adelaide | 13.25 | $3.75 |
Best Bet
Bailey Smith was my best last week at $3.75, and although I’ve got him leading quite comfortably after Round 14, I have to take Caleb Serong as my best at this price.
Serong is a proven poller - he finished equal 7th in a breakout season in 2023 with 24 votes, and then backed it up last year with 28 votes finishing equal 4th.
He’s a contested ball beast currently ranked equal third in the AFL, and the Dockers have an extremely friendly run over the next three weeks. If Fremantle can win all three, Serong is every chance of producing big enough numbers for two best-on-ground performances.
Lay
Just way too short for mine. Was good in a loss for the Crows, and could poll up to 2 votes - but it wouldn’t surprise me if Dawson also didn’t poll at all in Round 14.
Plenty of hype around the Adelaide Skipper, and he’s had a great year but it’s potentially overstated. In his fourth year at the Crows, this is Dawson’s lowest return for disposals per game with just 23.7.
As we know, contested possessions is the best indicator of Brownlow success over the last 15 years, and Dawson is ranked 48th in the competition in this category of players that have played 10 or more games.
With the Crows having the bye this round, there’s a strong chance Dawson will be outside the top-eight of our leaderboard after Round 15 - this price is a huge lay.
Value
Last month of football has been nothing short of incredible by Holmes, who has gone under the radar slightly in the shadow of Bailey Smith.
We’ve got Holmes recording 9.25 votes in the last four weeks for the Cats, where his contested possession numbers have exploded while playing full-time mid.
Understand he’ll fight it out with Bailey Smith, but Geelong has the easiest run home in the AFL - they only play two teams from their last nine inside the top-nine, while they play at GMHBA in five of their next seven games. If it’s not Bailey, could it be Max?
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.
