2024/25 NBA Playoffs May 15 Betting Predictions
NBA Thursday features two Game 5 matchups in the East and West. With the Knicks leading the series 3-1, this is a potential closeout game for New York against the defending NBA champions in Boston. The Timberwolves are leading the series 3-1, making this a must-win game for the Curry-less Warriors to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Knicks at Celtics (Game 5, NY leads series 3-1)
The Knicks are rolling right now, thanks to tough defence and some clutch offence when it counts. They’ve done a great job locking down Boston’s three-point game—holding them to just 15-of-60 from deep in Game 1 — and creating key turnovers like Bridges’ steal that helped swing momentum.
With Jayson Tatum out, New York’s depth really stands out. Jalen Brunson continues to lead the way, dropping 39 points and dishing 12 assists last game, while guys like OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns are stepping up big. Anunoby dropped 29 in Game 1 and has been a real problem on both ends, especially guarding Jaylen Brown. Towns has been a bit up and down, but his floor spacing could be a real headache for Boston’s shorthanded frontcourt.
The Knicks are 5-0 against the spread on the road, so even in Boston, there’s good reason to believe they’ll keep it close—or maybe even steal another win. Keep an eye on Brunson’s three-point prop (2.5 made threes); he’s hit that in three of the four games so far and is shooting over 41% from beyond the arc.
With Jayson Tatum sidelined due to an ankle/Achilles issue, the Celtics are facing a major uphill battle. That’s a huge hit to their offence and their shot at going all the way. Now it’s up to Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday to carry the load, while guys like Derrick White and Al Horford will need to knock down open threes to keep Boston’s offence afloat.
The good news? The Celtics are 21-6 without Tatum over the past three seasons. The bad news? They’ve been rough against the spread in May (1-5 ATS) and their shot selection late in Game 1—37 threes in the second half and OT — was questionable at best. Brown becomes the go-to guy, but he hasn’t fared well against the Knicks recently, going under his PRA prop of 37.5 in six of the last eight matchups.
Derrick White remains a bright spot, especially with his timely shooting, while Holiday’s defence and playmaking are going to be even more important with Tatum out. Pritchard can also hit the 3-ball if he gets hot, and he'll get more chances without Tatum on the court. Boston still has the talent, but without their star, they’ll need a near-perfect performance to even the series.
Stadium Record
Boston are 7-2 in its last 9 games at home. New York are 2-0 in this series at the TD Garden.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Celtics lead 6-4.
Best Bet
It's hard to see the Knicks losing by over 5 pts with no Tatum out there. Of course, the Celtics will be desperate but I think the Knicks have built the right team to beat them. They're 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Boston and 6-0 ATS on the road.
Same Game Multi
The series has trended toward the Under, with three of four games staying below 208 points due to strong defence and Boston’s shooting struggles. Game 2’s 91-90 scoreline highlights the defensive intensity and it should be tough for the Celts to score without Tatum. Pritchard has shown he can score off the bench and I think 12 or more pts should be a safe bet.
Knicks +4.5 / Under 207.5 pts / Pritchard 12+ pts = $6.25
Warriors at Timberwolves (Game 5, MIN leads series 3-1)
With Steph Curry sidelined by a hamstring strain and set to be re-evaluated in a week, the Warriors are in a tough spot. They’ll need a near-flawless game plan to hang with Minnesota—think tight defence, smart offence, and big contributions from guys like Jimmy Butler, Donte DiVincenzo, and Buddy Hield.
They showed in Game 1 that they can compete by slowing things down and locking in on defence, holding Anthony Edwards under 20 points. Butler has taken over as Golden State’s main scoring threat, while DiVincenzo’s shooting and perimeter defence are key. Draymond Green has to play smart—his ability to anchor the defence and run the offence is crucial, but foul trouble (like we saw in Game 3) could throw everything off.
The Warriors have lost ground against the spread lately (just 3-6 ATS), and without Curry, pulling off another win won’t be easy. Still, if they can control the tempo and get solid performances from their supporting cast, they’ve got a fighting chance.
The Timberwolves have been owning this series with their size and defence, especially with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels making life miserable for Golden State — who are clearly feeling the absence of Steph Curry. Anthony Edwards has been on fire, averaging 30+ a game and hitting big shots like that 30-foot buzzer-beater in Game 2. Julius Randle’s been just as tough to handle, stuffing the stat sheet and exposing the Warriors’ thin frontcourt.
Minnesota’s won five of their last six and with home-court advantage, they’re in a great spot to finish things off. Their third-quarter bursts — like in Game 2 — have been game-changers, and if they can keep dominating the paint and shutting down Golden State’s transition offence, this one could get away from the Warriors quickly.
Naz Reid’s Game 1 performance off the bench (19 points) also showed just how deep and dangerous this Wolves squad is.
Stadium Record
Minnesota are 8-1 in its last 9 games at home. Golden State have a 3-1 record in their last 4.
Head to Head Record
The Timberwolves lead the head to head 6-4 in the last 10.
Best Bet
3 of 4 games have stayed under 206 pts and I think it will be another low scoring battle. There's no Curry for the Warriors and Butler has struggled to score without him. Under is also 10-5 in the Timberwolves last 15 and 7-1 when they play on the road.
Same Game Multi
Buddy Hield is getting good looks without Curry, scoring 13 or more pts in 5 straight games. 12 or more pts looks like an easy line to cover. Conley has dished out 5 assists in 3 of his last 4 games so I think he can get 4+ assists.
Under 204.5 pts / Buddy Hield 12+ pts / Conley 4+ assists = $6.00
