UFC 301 Betting Preview
Get ready to place your bets because UFC 301 is about to rock the Octagon this Sunday! BlueBet is here to break down the odds and analyze the key matchups.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg
Pantoja's a total all-rounder in the Octagon. He's scored eight KOs, wrapped up 10 subs and clinched nine decisions. They call him "The Cannibal" and he's no joke with his 4.32 significant strikes per minute and a solid 49% accuracy. Plus, he's no slouch on the ground either, averaging 2.20 takedowns every 15 minutes. In his last four fights alone, he's nailed 18 takedowns. Pretty impressive and he'll go into this fight as the warm favourite.
Erceg is all about landing those significant strikes, clocking in at 4.57 per minute with a sweet 48% accuracy rate. He really turned heads with that knockout win against Matt Schnell in his last bout. But let's keep it real, Erceg hasn't been through the grinder like Pantoja has. He hasn't faced the same level of competition or gone the distance in championship rounds. Sure, he's got some ground game, but he hasn't tangled with a grappler as slick as Pantoja, one who can really wear him down in those later rounds.
Pantoja is 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights and I think he's hard to go past in this matchup.
UFC Record
Pantoja is 27-5 in his UFC career. Erceg has been dominant so far with a 12-1 record.
Best Bet
Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo
Martinez is on fire with six straight wins under his belt, two of them by knocking dudes out with leg kicks. At 30, he's got some youth on his side compared to Aldo, even though they're neck and neck in reach. Aldo's gonna have that home-crowd energy pumping, but can he still bring the heat after being away for so long? Bagging a win would be sweet for him, but it looks like Martinez is ready to steal the spotlight. If Martinez keeps his cool, doesn't go charging in like a bull, he's got a good shot at taking down the UFC legend.
Guess who's back in the Octagon after a stint in boxing? Yep, it's Aldo. He's been away since 2022, but now he's stepping back into the UFC arena. This Brazilian fighter packs a punch, landing 3.57 significant strikes per minute with a solid 46% accuracy rate. Before his last tango with Merab Dvalishvili, Aldo was on a roll, scoring three wins in a row. He even outstruck Pedro Munhoz and took down Rob Font, who threw a whopping 149 significant strikes his way.
This should be a long fight considering Martinez has won 4 of his last 6 by decision and Aldo's last 5 have gone the distance. So I like the Over and Martinez to get the win.
UFC Record
Aldo is a vet of the UFC with a 31-8 record. Martinez has a strong 19-4 record.
Best Bet
Jonathan Martinez Over 1.5 Rounds = $1.99
Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino
Alright, let's talk Smith. He's been in the mix for that light heavyweight title before. Dude's landing 3.21 significant strikes per minute, but here's the kicker: he's taking in 4.47 hits himself. Not the best trade-off, right? Lately, he's been struggling, with just one win out of his last four bouts against top competition. Smith's a tough nut though, a real veteran of the game and he's got some serious skills on his feet. But hey, his defense? Not exactly rock-solid, especially up against the cage.
Let's break down Petrino's game. So, he's clocking in at 2.74 significant strikes per minute, not too shabby. But check this out, in his decision wins against Tyson Pedro and Anton Turalj, he only managed to land 27 and 39 significant strikes respectively. Ouch, not exactly knocking it out of the park there. But hey, here's where he's got the upper hand: on the ground. Petrino's averaging 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is pretty darn impressive. And in his four fights in the Octagon, he's nailed 15 takedowns. Looks like he's gonna be working that ground game to his advantage.
Petrino hasn't lost in his 11 pro MMA fights, winning both of his UFC Main Card bouts by decision. Meanwhile, Anthony Smith's last three UFC fights have all gone past Round 2. It's set to be an intense showdown so I like Petrino to continue his winning form along with the Over 1.5 rounds.
UFC Record
Petrino is undefeated at 11-0. Smith has been around the UFC/MMA for a while with a 37-19 record.
Best Bet
