Round 16 Preview
After all teams were given a bye to accommodate the standalone Origin game, we are back to fully scheduled programming, albeit one that looks set to be heavily influenced by COVID-19 restrictions. In saying that, we had a very successful round 15 so let’s hope we can continue the hot streak this week.
Sydney Roosters ($3.30) v Melbourne Storm ($1.33)
Thursday 1 July 7:50PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle will get an opportunity to see what will be a terrific game to kick off round 16 with the Roosters taking on the Storm. Melbourne extended its winning streak to 12 with a 66-16 mauling over the Tigers a fortnight ago, and after recording a comfortable 16-point win over the Roosters earlier in April, it’s safe to say the Storm won’t be short on confidence, hence the -10 line in favour of Craig Bellamy’s side. Both teams have been outstanding defensively in 2021, ranking bottom five in tries conceded this year suggests this could be a low-scoring game and there previous two meetings between the Storm and Roosters have both been relatively low scoring, which looks to be a good to kick of the round, especially with the wet weather that has been plaguing the New South Wales Coast.
Recommended Bet: Under 48.5 $1.90
New Zealand Warriors ($1.65) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($2.25)
Friday 2 July 6:00PM, Central Coast Stadium
This looks set to be one of the most important match-ups of the round, in what will no doubt have an impact on who, and who doesn’t make the top 8. The Warriors have lost three straight coming in, but such is the nature of the 2021 season that they still find themselves only two points adrift from a spot back inside the eight, with a multitude of teams fighting for 7th and 8th spot. The Dragons, meanwhile, have been clinging to the eighth spot on the ladder for quite some time, but they did move a step closer to playing finals with a gutsy two-point win over the Raiders a fortnight ago.
Warriors mid season signings Chad Townsend and Dallin Watene-Zellezniak have been named and on paper, this looks like the best side the Warriors have produced all year. As such, I’m going with the Warriors on top in what should be a close game in the first of the Friday night fixtures.
Recommended Bet: Warriors 1-12 $3.00
Penrith Panthers ($1.42) v Parramatta Eels ($2.85)
Friday 2 July 7:55PM, Bluebet Stadium
There is no shortage of excitement heading towards Friday’s blockbuster battle of the West showdown at Bluebet stadium in front of what would have been a raucous. After suffering a pair of losses to the Tigers and Sharks with a handful of their stars missing, the Panthers rebounded nicely before the bye with a full-strength win over the Roosters that has left them tied on points with the top of the table Storm, however will be without Dally M favourite Nathan Cleary who looks set to miss 6 weeks of action with a shoulder injury. Winners of three straight, the Eels have been on a tear of late with three blowout victories over the Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs, but obviously, this is a step up in class against the premiership favourites and one Brad Arthur will be hungry to win. Penrith is undefeated at home this year, however I think they lose a lot with the aforementioned Cleary out, with his control seemingly being the key to sparking the side’s attack having lost when he is not in the side. Nevertheless, the Panthers will likely win this game on defence as they continue to lead the league in fewest points conceded and I’m tipping this to be a close win to the mountain men.
Recommended Bet: Panthers 1-12 $3.00
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs ($6.50) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.10)
Saturday 3 July 3:00PM, Bankwest Stadium
The Sea Eagles continue their march towards the top four this week with a very favourable game against the struggling Bulldogs on Saturday. Currently sitting sixth, Manly has an enormous opportunity to bridge the gap between themselves and the Roosters, while this also shapes as an important game for the Bulldogs as far as the wooden spoon is concerned. Manly has won four straight over Canterbury dating back to 2018, and put on one of the greatest 40 minutes of football in NRL history in their demolition of Titans in round 15. As we have very successfully seen, heavy favourites at the line have proven very profitable so far this year and it would be very surprising if Manly didn’t win this game comfortably. While it does seem difficult to cover more than 4 converted tries, I’m confident in the strength of both their attack defence, especially with Nick Cotric, Brendan Wakeham and Adam Elliot all unavailable for the Bulldogs, who have typically provided their attacking spark.
Recommended Bet: Sea Eagles -24.5 $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.40) v Gold Coast Titans ($2.95)
Saturday 3 July 5:30PM, GIO Stadium
This looks to be arguably one of the toughest betting propositions of the weekend, on account of the inconsistencies of both the Raiders and Titans in 2021. Perhaps the week off came at an opportune time for the Canberra Raiders, whose finals hopes remain on life support after some disappointing defeats mixed in with some impressive victories. Ricky Stuart’s side missed their chance to move further up the ladder, after throwing away a 20-6 lead in the second half to lose to the St George Illawarra Dragons 22-20 in Wollongong in their last match before the Origin weekend. The Raiders will get their chance for redemption when they host the Gold Coast Titans in the nation’s capital, with the men from the holiday strip coming off a 56-24 loss to the Sea Eagles at home after a horror second-half capitulation after looking like a premiership contender in the first 40. Jack Wighton was last year’s Dally M medallist, however has looked a shadow of the player this year, but I’m backing him to attack the right edge of the Titans defense which has been brittle all year and lead his Raiders side to a victory at home
Recommended Bet: Raiders 1-12 $2.65
Newcastle Knights ($1.62) v North Queensland Cowboys ($2.30)
Saturday 3 July 7:35PM, Mcdonald Jones Stadium
The Knights will take to the field with only one thing in mind on Saturday night: revenge.
Newcastle lost 36-20 to the Cowboys when they met in Townsville earlier in May, a game Adam O’Brien’s men will be hungry to atone for with the finals still very much up for grabs.
As for North Queensland, they’ll head to Newcastle knowing a second straight win over the Knights could be enough to vault them back inside the eight, however the home side will be bolstered by the return of Kalyn Ponga, who along with Mitchell Pearce, are able to produce a 10 point swing in favour of their side, such is the potency of play and effect on the wider team. Ponga will be looking for a strong game after a frustrating year marred by injury, so look for him to score a try this weekend against a Cowboys defence which can leak points. While the bye couldn’t have come at a better time last week for the Cowboys after losing back-to-back games to Manly and Cronulla, and with their 1-5 record on the road leaving a lot to be desired, I’m going with the Knights to prevail in a close Saturday night game.
Recommended Bet: Knights 1-12 $2.70
Brisbane Broncos ($2.95) v Cronulla Sharks ($1.40)
Sunday 4 July 2:00PM, Suncorp Stadium
The Sharks have a prime opportunity to extend their winning streak to five against the an injury riddled Broncos on Sunday in Brisbane. Wins over the Dragons, Titans, Panthers, and Cowboys were enough to push Cronulla back inside the eight before the bye, and with Brisbane coming off another forgettable 46-0 drubbing at the hands of South Sydney a fortnight ago, this looks to be the Sharks for the taking and keep themselves in the top 8. Just when the Broncos thought things couldn’t get any worse, they were also dealt a serious injury blow against the Rabbitohs with Jesse Arthars and John Asiata both suffering head knocks, Karmichael Hunt injured and the much maligned Tevita Pangai Junior suspended. From a betting standpoint, Brisbane has lost each of its last four games by 13+ points, and while Cronulla do not typically blow teams off the park they should be able to cover the line here against a Brisbane side who’s season is getting worse week by week.
Recommended Bet: Sharks -8.5 $1.90
Wests Tigers ($7.00) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.10)
Sunday 4 July 4:05PM, Leichhardt Oval
The Rabbitohs are one of the most in-form sides in the competition right now and it is no surprise to find them as heavy favourites on Sunday against the Tigers at Leichhardt. Wayne Bennett’s men rattled off three impressive victories over the Eels, Knights and Broncos before the bye, although it’s fair to say they’ll be eager to prove a point against the Tigers after prevailing in overtime when the two sides met back in Round 6. Wests come into this game on the back of two straight losses, and while they have proven to be a frisky opponent at times, it’s hard to ignore the Tigers’ embarrassing defensive effort two weeks ago in their 66-16 loss to the Storm. Michael Maguire has no doubt spent the extra week searching for answers, but this is another defensive nightmare for the coach with the likes of Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston lining up opposite. Latrell in particular poses a problem when his confidence is up like it will be off his impressive performances for NSW during the Origin period, whilst Cody Walker will be looking to impress and potentially force his way into the squad for game 3. Against a frail Tigers outfit, I can see South Sydney racking up a cricket score.
Recommended Bet: Rabbitohs -19.5 $1.90
