Round 11 Preview
Magic Round certainly provided headlines for a lot of the wrong reasons but was still an enjoyable weekend of Rugby League, especially if you were in the ground in Brisbane, but the show rolls on for another round, with the two fixtures on Sunday looking very enticing.
North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights
Thursday 20th May, 7:50PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Thursday night footy returns this week with an intriguing albeit underwhelming clash between 11th and 12th on the ladder. Despite a spirited first half, the Cowboys fell 14-point victims to the Roosters last week, courtesy of a clinic from James Tedesco, while the Knights were blown off the park in the first half by the Tigers, and after having top 8 expectations placed upon them during the pre-season, have once again under performed with Adam O’Brien at the helm. Betting-wise, the Cowboys do look a good bet here with the always advantageous Townsville crowd behind him, particularly when you consider the Knights have played to a 2-3 record away from home this year. Newcastle hasn’t won in Townsville since 2015, so if Todd Payten’s crew can start fast like they did last week, they may be able to get the win and draw within 2 points of the top 8, however not with a lot of confidence.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys 1-12 $3.00
New Zealand Warriors ($1.51) v Wests Tigers ($2.55)
Friday 21st May, 6:00PM, Central Coast Stadium
Many pundits, including this writer, had well and truly written off the Tigers heading into their fixture last week against the Knights, however, as they so often do when priced as the underdogs, the Tiger proceeded to come and play the more fancied Novacastrians off the park, with 2 two tries in the first 10 minutes and a 24-4 lead at halftime - effectively winning the game. The Warriors on the other hand, while not disappointing, were simply no match for the Eels, but will be encouraged by the continued improved performances of boom rookie Reece Walsh, with a starting spot imminent for the former Bronco. The game is vital for the Kiwi side, with a win and other results potentially going their way would see them sitting in eighth position come the end of the round and ideally placed heading toward the middle of the season, where they are extremely unlikely to lose players to representative duties. With the Tigers not having won back-to-back games since round 6 and 7 last year and the Warriors performing admirably last round I anticipate they’ll prevail in a close game Friday evening.
Recommended Bet: Warriors 1-12 $2.95
Cronulla Sharks v St George Illawarra Dragons
Friday 21st May, 7:55PM, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The battle of the Shire resumes as the main event on Friday evening, with both sides in desperate need of a win. The Sharks have struggled since the departure of John Morrison with only two wins to their name this year, while the Dragons will be desperate to remain in the top 8 after being comprehensively beaten by a weakened Melbourne Storm during the Magic Round weekend. Suspensions and injuries are causing plenty of headaches for Anthony Griffin’s side with Josh McGuire, Mikaele Ravalawa, Tyrell Fuimaono and Tariq Sims suspended, while the impressive Matt Dufty is set to miss game time with a shoulder injury. Cody Ramsey shifts to fullback for the first time in the NRL and can expect plenty of pressure from Matt Moylan and Shaun Johnson, who has been named as a reserve, but is expected to play. Cronulla have won the previous two games between the sides and with the plethora of team changes for the Red V, I’m comfortable backing the Sharks at the line in what should be a close game.
Recommended Bet: Sharks +6.5 $1.90
Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Saturday 22nd May, 3:00PM, Cbus Super Stadium
The Titans have fallen well short of expectations so far this season, failing to capitalise on their promising attacking patterns with some at times, abysmal defence, but they do have a perfect opportunity to steer the ship back in the right direction on Saturday against the Bulldogs, who must already be pining for the end of the season. Last week’s hiding at the hands of the Panthers proved to everyone that the Titans are still a big step away from hanging with the top four sides, and with Herman Ese’ese and Tyron Peachey suspended, they have been forced to bring the inexperienced Sam Stone and Sam McIntyre into the side. The Bulldogs are still a few weeks away from seeing some of their troops return, but Dylan Napa could be the big inclusion this week after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. An upset isn’t off the cards given the Titans lost to the Broncos three weeks ago, but the rest of the forward pack will need to step up in the continued absence of David Fifita, but I can’t see Canterbury getting close here on Saturday.
Recommended Bet: Titans -12.5 $1.90
Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos
Saturday 22nd May, 5:30PM, Sydney Cricket Ground
These two sides used to play regularly on Good Friday, and while that tradition has gone by the wayside, both sides tend to bring their A game when matching up. James Tedesco must have heard the pub talk of Tom Trbojevic being the best fullback in the game because he single handedly dragged the Roosters to a convincing victory. For the first time this season, the Roosters have earned a reprieve from the injury Gods, by being able to name the same 17 once again. Coach Kevin Walter was once again ropable with the performance of Broncos against the Sea Eagles, leaking 50 points in what is turning out to be an all too common occurrence in 2021. The Roosters are undefeated at home this season and I don’t expect that too change in round 11. Include Victor Radley as an anytime tryscorer.
Recommended Bet: Roosters 13+ $1.52
Canberra Raiders ($6.00) v Melbourne Storm ($1.12)
Saturday 22nd May, 7:35PM, GIO Stadium
The Raiders snapped their five-game losing streak last week with a win over the Dogs, but Ricky Stuart’s men still left a lot to be desired heading into a clash with the runaway Storm on Saturday.
Canberra staved off a gutsy fightback from Canterbury to walk away two-point victors, but they’ll need to improve drastically on that effort if they wish to knock off the top-scoring side in the comp.
Melbourne, meanwhile, cruised to its seventh straight win last week a dominant victory over the Dragons, and even with Ryan Papenhuyzen injured, Nicho Hynes was impressive in his temporary role at fullback. While this time last year, backing the Storm at this line would seem outrageous, but such is the gulf between the two sides that I think it looks a good bet.
Recommended Bet: Storm -17.5 $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($3.50) v Penrith Panthers ($1.30)
Sunday 23rd May, 2:00PM, Apex Oval
The Rugby League faithful in Dubbo will be treated to a potential Grand Final preview when the unbeaten Panthers take on the fourth placed Rabbitohs. Both teams are at relatively full strength with Latrell Mitchell returning from suspension and Josh Mansour from injury while Kurt Capewell has recovered from concussion symptoms. The Panthers continue to impress, scoring 48 points in back-to-back games, with halfback Nathan Cleary elevating his game to another level in recent weeks to lead the Dally M race in 2021. The return of Latrell for South Sydney is a welcome boost, having scored 5 tries, 6 try assists and 36 tackle breaks in just 6 rounds of play this year and will reunite with Cody Walker, Dane Gagai and Alex Johnston on their lethal left edge and will need every ounce of chemistry to break through a Panthers defence that has only allowed 72 points through 10 games to give themselves a points differential of 236. I’m anticipating this too be the game of the round on what should be a fast Dubbo deck and while I’ confident in a Panthers win, a full strength Rabbitohs side will prove one of their greatest tests this year.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.90
Parramatta Eels v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Sunday 23rd May, 4:05PM, Bankwest Stadium
Round 11 ends in another blockbuster clash with the Eels hosting the red hot Sea Eagles at Bankwest in front of what should be a capacity crowd at Bankwest Stadium. Parramatta made it five on the trot last week with a dominant victory over the Warriors, while the Sea Eagles made it back-to-back wins in a memorable 50-6 drubbing over the Broncos at Suncorp. A win here for Manly would to entrench themselves in the top 8 would be remarkable given their early season, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Eels have managed to score 30 points or more in each of their last five games, led by Mitch Moses who has recorded 4 try assists in the previous 2 games and is relishing leading this Eels side. Manly, however, holds bragging rights over Parramatta after winning by four points when they met last July, but the Eels appear to have shed the inconsistency that plagued them last season and with Kieran Foran out with a hand injury it makes a Sea Eagles victory less likely. Offensively, Parramatta rank third in points and tries this year and against a high flying Manly side I expect they record the win.
Recommended Bet: Eels 1-12 $2.95
