Round 10 Preview
Round 10 doubles as Magic Round, with all fixtures being played out of Suncorp Stadium in what will be a festivus of Rugby League in Brisbane. It will be interesting to see how the turf handles 8 games after the Super Rugby final last weekend, but there is still a winner to be found in every game.
Wests Tigers ($2.55) v Newcastle Knights ($1.55)
Friday 14th May, 6:00PM
Wests prevailed over the Knights by 4 points in Round 3 earlier this year and another close encounter can be expected between the two sides. Four of the last five matches the Tigers have taken part in have been decided by 8 points or less while the Knights recorded a stirring come from behind win over the Raiders last week to break a 2 game losing streak. The Knights are finally able to name the same 17 that was victorious last week after a terrible fortune with injuries while Tigers coach Michael Maguire has made the curious decision to move Adam Douehi from five eighth back to centre. Douehi has been one of the merger clubs most impressive players this season and has been growing into his playmaking role, having assisted in several tries last week and scoring one of his own. One promising aspect of the Tigers play is their ability to offload, registering a competition leading 119 this year, with it being easy to assume this would lead to more wins considering the increased speed of the game in 2021. If they are able to harness this broken field play then the Tigers may be able to improve their position on the ladder, however the Knights will have taken a lot of confidence from last week’s win and I’m keen on them to cover the line Friday evening and get our round started well.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -5.5 $1.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.36) v Brisbane Broncos ($3.10)
Friday 14th May, 8:05PM
In what seems strange to this writer, the Sea Eagles are classified as the home team despite 40,000 expected at Suncorp on Friday night, with the majority of them no doubt Broncos supporters. A win would likely be enough to propel Manly back inside the eight this week as they set their sights on a feisty Broncos outfit looking to bounce-back from a one-point loss to the Cowboys. The Sea Eagles recorded a gutsy win against the Warriors thanks to an outstanding performance from Tom Trbjoevic in his 100th NRL game and a hat trick to Jason Saab. Trbjoveic has been the catalyst for Manly’s resurgence, and he will no doubt be hungry to add to his five-try total since returning from injury, however his biggest impact has been evident on Foran and Cherry-Evans in the halves, who have grown in confidence on the back of their fullback’s stellar plat. The Broncos can definitely hold their heads high after missing out on a sweep over their Queensland rivals by a single point last week, but this is still a much tougher test against a team that now appears to have serious top eight credentials. Tevita Pangai-Junior will be the key for Brisbane, and if he can dominate the middle third of the field, the Broncos will be in with a good shot of winning. However, I’m sticking with Manly in what will be a close game.
Recommended Bet: Sea Eagles 1-12 $3.00
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($5.50) v Canberra Raiders ($1.14)
Saturday 15th May, 3:00PM
A game against the likely wooden spooners couldn’t have come at a better time for the Green Machine. The Raiders have been subject to intense media scrutiny after their second half collapse against Newcastle last week – a worrying trend that now cost the Green Machine five consecutive losses, not taking into account Josh Hodgson stepping down as captain and rumours of discontent with coach Ricky Stuart. Scoring points in the final 40 minutes has proven a massive challenge for Canberra all season, however the Bulldogs troubles scoring throughout the entire game .
Injuries have also played a large part for both clubs this year, but there is some reprieve on the Raiders’ front with Jarrod Croker and Josh Hodgson both a chance to play. While the Raiders have won four straight over the Dogs dating back to 2018, however, the margin have all been less than what the line is set at this week - and that was against considerable stronger Raiders sides. While it is hard to get enthused about this game, the neutral turf should play into the hands of the Bulldogs.
Recommended Bet: Bulldogs +15.5 $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($2.95) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.40)
Saturday 15th May, 5:30PM
Both sides are coming off considerable defeats, going down by a combined 98 points in their Round 9 contests, and will be looking to put those performances behind them and back into the winners circle at Suncorp on Saturday evening. The Sharks have been a tough side to feel good about all year, with their play worsening in recent weeks, particularly once John Marris was given his marching orders. Shaun Johnson has been ruled out with a lower leg injury in a big blow to the Sharks, while the Rabbitohs will improve with Adam Reynolds back in the lineup, with his experience and leadership invaluable to the side. After missing 45 tackles last week and struggling massively for possession, Wayne Bennett will have addressed these issues through the week and have his players ready to go from kick off and as such, the Rabbitohs look a good bet to cover the line.
Recommended Bet: Rabbitohs -7.5 $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.28) v North Queensland Cowboys ($3.60)
Saturday 15th May, 7:45PM
It’s fair to say a win could work wonders for both the Roosters and the Cowboys on Saturday night with the tri-colours eager to keep in touch with the Rabbitohs and the top four, while the Cowboys could also find themselves in the top 8 with a win and results going their way. These two clubs have been dealt their fair share of injuries throughout the year and things have only gotten worse as far as the Roosters are concerned. Sydney will now be without Drew Hutchison for the foreseeable future, leaving Trent Robinson well short on playmakers this week with Victor Radley also uncertain to play through concussion. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are starting to return to full health including Jason Taumalolo who has been showing promising signs in recent weeks that he will be able to return to the form that saw him given a 10 year deal and Dally M medal. The Cowboys and Roosters have split the last two meetings between the sides but I’m going to side with Sydney on the short margin.
Recommended Bets: Sydney Rooster 1-12 $2.95
New Zealand Warriors ($3.00) v Parramatta Eels ($1.38)
Sunday 16th May, 1:30PM
Second plays eighth in the first of the Sunday fixtures in what could turn out to be one of the best matches across the weekend. The Eels made it four straight last week with a statement victory over the Roosters at Bankwest, while the Warriors fell just short against Manly, continuing to be unable to put back-to-back wins on the board. No more than a converted try has separated these two clubs in their last two meetings, and it would not be surprising if we get another tight, high-scoring thriller this time around. The Warriors have done well to keep their heads above water during their recent injury crisis, but there looks to be hope on the horizon with Euan Aitken and Ben Murdoch-Masila both expected back this week. The Eels, meanwhile, will be without Dylan Brown, although Nathan Brown and Waqa Blake return from respective injuries. We just missed on the Eels margin last week at good value so I’m going for the same bet again as I feel the Warriors will provide enough of a test for Brad Arthur’s men, with the game to be a lot closer than many think.
Recommended Bet: Eels 1-12 $2.80
Melbourne Storm ($1.14) v St George-Illawarra Dragons ($5.75)
Sunday 16th May, 4:05PM
Brandon Smith suspended, Harry Grant injured, Cameron Munster injured, Ryan Papenhuyzen injured, Kenny Bromwich at hooker. The Storm side named for Magic Round looks very different to the one that has been steamrolling opposition in recent weeks, including recording a half century against the Rabbitohs last week. Even more impressive, was their defensive capabilities, holding the usually potent Souths attack to zero. However despite leading the league in points, with the majority of their spine removed, I’m keen on backing the Dragons on the line this week. St George were able to snap their 3 game losing streak last round, albeit against the cellar dweller Bulldogs. Apart from their 24 point defeat at the hands of the Roosters on ANZAC Day, the majority of the Dragons winning and losing margins have been in single digits and with all the aforementioned Storm players unavailable, the Dragons line looks one of the best bets of the weekend.
Recommended Bet: Dragons +16.5 $1.90
Gold Coast Titans ($7.00) v Penrith Panthers ($1.10)
Sunday 16th May, 6:30PM
Magic Round closes out with the undefeated Panthers taking on the inconsistent Titans, with Penrith looking to continue their unbeaten start to 2020. Last year’s beaten finalists lead the league in almost every major attacking and defence category, whilst Brian To’o and Jerom Luai lead the league in run metres and line break assists respectively. Rarely this year have they been tested and even though they take on a fellow top 8 side, the fact the Titans have recorded more losses than wins is why the line has been set so wide. Justin Holbrook’s side picked up a crucial win last week against the Tigers to snap a three-game skid, while the Panthers remain undefeated in their last nine games. The Panthers have emerged victorious in four of their last five match ups agains the Titans and with the Gold Coast based side continuing to produce inconsistent performances behind some sloppy turnovers and major defensive errors, I’m of the opinion the Panthers will be able to put on a big score.
Recommended Bet: Panthers -19.5 $1.90
