Round 9 Preview
After a good week of betting last week, with 6 wins has filled me with confidence heading into Round 9, and while some of the competition’s more inconsistent sides are going up against another, I’ve found some bets at good odds this round.
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($3.30) v Melbourne Storm ($1.33)
Thursday 6th March, 7:50PM, Stadium Australia
What had previously shaped up as the game of the round has now had some gloss taken off it due to the number of injuries and suspensions facing the Rabbitohs. Since the Round 1 blockbuster between the two sides, the Rabbitohs are undefeated while the Storm are also on their own 5 game winning streak after early back-to-back losses to Parramatta and Penrith. While fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen is still on the sidelines, the spine of Cameron Munster, Jahrom Hughes and Harry Grant continue to develop, and heavily contribute to the side leading the competition in points, time in possession and linebreaks - a testament to the clinical style of play the Storm have been known for under Bellamy. Despite the contrast in availability of key players for the sides, Wayne Bennett thrives in these situations when his side gets written off and will no doubt have his younger players ready to play. The Storm however have won the last 5 contests between the two sides and I’m confident they’ll be able to put South Sydney to the sword in the opening match of the round.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 13+ $2.30
Penrith Panthers ($1.10) v Cronulla Sharks ($7.00)
Friday 7th Match, 6:00PM, Bluebet Stadium
Another tough assignment awaits the struggling Sharks as they travel across Sydney the undefeated Penrith Panthers at BlueBet Stadium in the early Friday game. Dramas both on and off the field have conspired against the men from the Shire, who have only won two matches this season and currently sit in 13th place on the ladder, and as one of the most consistent sides of the last decade, leaves them at risk of missing finals for just the second time since 2011. Last week, they took the fight up to the Storm in Melbourne in the first half, but capitulated after halftime to lose 40-14 and effectively leave their season on life support. There will be no respite when they face the Panthers, who have only lost two matches since the start of last season and last week made it eight wins from as many starts when they held off a red hot Sea Eagles side to win 28-16 in Bathurst. Halfback, co-captain and incumbent Blues number seven Nathan Cleary continues to look a class above those around him, playing the game with the type of vision reserved for the all time greats of the game. Cleary’s strengths are emphasised in a relatively overlooked statistic, with the Panthers having made 192 kicks this year, often resulting in repeat sets and territorial dominance over their rivals. Back on their home deck after a successful road trip to Bathurst and having one three straight against Cronulla, the mountain men should make it nine straight wins in front of a packed out Bluebet Stadium on Friday evening.
Recommended Bet: Panthers 13+ $1.52
Parramatta Eels ($1.57) v Sydney Roosters ($2.40)
Friday 7th March, 7:55PM, Bankwest Stadium
The second match on Friday night sees a blockbuster between two teams sitting in second and fourth place on the ladder – the Parramatta Eels up against the Sydney Roosters at Bankwest Stadium.Last Saturday night, the Eels made light work of the Bulldogs, winning 32-10, making it seven wins from eight matches so far with their only loss being against the Dragons in Round 5, and despite this continue to fly under everyone’s radar. The evergreen Brett Morriss unfortunately tore his ACL which has seemingly ended his illustrious NRL career while teammate Lindsay Collins also suffered the same injury ruling him out till 2022 also, already adding to a horror injury toll at Bondi Junction. Despite Trent Robinson apparently walking under every ladder and cracked ladder he sees, the Rooster side continue to find win, and win impressively, with rookie Sam Walker again impressing at number seven, while Victor Radley has returned to the form of 2020 after a relatively slow start to the year by his standard. In better news for the Chooks, James Tedesco will return after being knocked out against the Dragons on Anzac Day, and his individual battle with Eels counterpart Clint Gutherson - who is currently leading the competition in kick return metres - will go a long way towards deciding this heavyweight showdown. While I am loath to go against the uber consistent Roosters, injuries will eventually catch up with them and with the Eels always being a tough proposition at home they should prevail in a close one.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta 1-12 $2.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.46) v Newcastle Knights ($2.70)
Saturday 8th March, 3:00PM, McDonalds Park
The Raiders and the Knights are equally desperate for a win ahead of Saturday’s game in Wagga Wagga. Canberra’s woes only got worse last week with a blowout 14-point loss to the Rabbitohs at home, while the Knights also disappointed their home fans with a 34-point defeat to the Roosters. Injuries have played a large part in the demise of both teams recently, but there is some hope on the horizon with Newcastle potentially welcoming back Edrick Lee and Hymel Hunt into the lineup this weekend, while the Raiders have George Williams and Josh Papali’i returning following a ‘mental refreshment’. Having been so consistent under Ricky Stuart in the back end of the last decade, the Raiders seem to have regressed heavily this year, but were only a disallowed try away from a grandstand finish against the Rabbitohs last week.
While the Knights have won two of their last three over the Raiders – which includes last year’s 34-18 win in Canberra – they have been very disappointing on face value in recent weeks and as such I’m going with a close win to the Green machine in Wagga.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $2.95
Wests Tigers ($2.50) v Gold Coast Titans ($1.53)
Saturday 8th March, 5:30PM, Campbelltown Sports Stadium
Despite the fact they blew a 22-point lead against the Broncos last week, and the Tigers are coming off a win over the Dragons, the Titans still find themselves as the favourites on Saturday afternoon against the Tigers. Now sitting eighth on the ladder, this shapes as a must-win game for Justin Holbrook’s side, who are failing to live up to the expectations set on them during pre season. Winning back-to-back games has proven a problem for the Tigers over the last few years, and interestingly enough only seem to find success when they are completely counted out by the odds makers and the media but they do have to feel good about the fact they have home-field advantage in Campbelltown. Last week the Tigers dominated possession against the Saints in a bruising affair, and if Michael Maguire’s men can replicate that performance, there’s no question they are a chance at causing an upset. Both sides' inconsistency means I could not get too enthused about a bet either way, but feel the Titans have a better up side, and if they bring the right attitude, particularly on the defensive side then they will be able to cover the line. Include David Fifita to score in your exotics.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans -4.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.57) v Brisbane Broncos ($2.40)
Saturday 8th March, 7:35PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Another Queensland Derby is in-store, and if it turns out anything like last week’s thriller at Suncorp, we are in for a real treat. The Broncos picked up their second win of the season with a memorable come-from-behind win over the Titans, while the Cowboys staged their own second-half comeback to fall just four points short to the Warriors. Recent history between these two clubs suggests this game should be close, but this does look a very winnable game for the Cowboys in their return to Townsville, especially given the Broncos tendency to follow up a promising performance with a disappointing effort the week after. Despite losing last week, North Queensland controlled the entire second half to keep the Warriors off the scoreboard, while there were also some promising signs on the Cowboys attack with former Dally M medalist Jason Taumalolo back in the fold. Interestingly, the last time the Broncos won a game on the road was against the Cowboys in Round 1 last year, but obviously, a lot has changed since then. North Queensland has played to a steady 2-2 record at home this year, and if they can pick up where they left off in the final 40 minutes last week, the Cowboys should be adding to that record.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland 1-12 $2.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.47) v New Zealand Warriors ($2.65)
Sunday 9th March, 2:00PM, Lottoland
The first match on Sunday afternoon sees the Warriors make the short trip south from their Central Coast hub to Brookvale Oval to face the Sea Eagles in a match that will mark a decade since the Silvertails’ most recent premiership win. For both sides the clash at Brookvale Oval on Sunday looms as an important match in the context of the season, with the Sea Eagles sitting in tenth place on the ladder with three wins and the Warriors in seventh with four wins.Des Hasler’s side put up a good fight against the Panthers in Bathurst last weekend, but still went down 28-16 but was a significant improvement from the Round 4 clash, which saw the Sea Eagles go down by 46-6. They had won their previous three matches to breathe some life back into their campaign, and to make it four from their last five they will need to bring their A-game against the Warriors, for whom a return home isn’t too far off. Nathan Brown’s side bounced back from their Anzac night loss to the Storm with a strong first half against the Cowboys, with rookie Reece Walsh the star of the show as they scooted to a 24-4 halftime lead, and potentially leaving the Broncos ruing the loss of another young star. The Kiwi club failed to score in the second half but the first-half damage they inflicted on the northerners proved to be enough as they held on for a 24-20 win, their fourth of the season. This will be the second meeting of the two clubs within five rounds, after the Sea Eagles registered a 13-12 win back in Round 5 and back at home, on back to Brookvale Day, I think the Silvertails can join the Warriors with four wins this year and within striking distance of the top 8.
Recommended Bet: Sea Eagles 1-12 $3.00
St George Illawarra Dragons (1.27) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs ($3.75)
Sunday 9th March, 4:05PM, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
A game against the Bulldogs couldn’t have come at a better time for a Dragons outfit on a three game losing streak to the Warriors, Roosters and Tigers after having previously won four in a row and potentially setting themselves as top 4 contenders. Nonetheless, Anthony Griffin’s side could venture back into the top five with a win on Sunday afternoon, although victory is far from a guarantee with Zac Lomax set to join the suspended. Mikaele Ravalawa and Jordan Pereira on the sidelines. The Dogs showed two weeks ago that they aren’t to be taken lightly in an upset over the Sharks, however they regressed against Parramatta last week who the Dragons had beaten prior to their three game skid. The season series was split last year between the two sides, winning one a piece and with both sides in the top 3 for most missed tackles in 2021, I suspect there will not be much between the two sides, however I will side with the Dragons to return to the winner’s list and heap more misery onto the Bulldogs.
Recommended Bet: Dragons 1-12 $3.00
