Round 5 Preview
Another good round of Rugby League over the Easter weekend passed us by including the short price favourites easily covering the line in the first 3 fixtures, with our recommended bets going 5 from 8 to see us in the positive.
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.06) v Brisbane Broncos ($9.00)
Thursday 8th April, 8:05PM, Stadium Australia
Supercoach Wayne Bennett goes up against the club he coached to multiple premierships and his long time ally in those victories, Kevin Walters, who is seeing first hand the rigours of coaching a first grade side. After a round one loss, the Rabbitohs are going from strength-to-strength this season, including a 38-0 demolition of the hapless Bulldogs last Friday. Latrell Mitchell was highlighted in last round’s preview as a player to watch and he did not disappoint, turning in another impressive performance, having recorded 5 try assists and a competition leading 6 line break assists so far this season, and almost looks a lock to be in a sky blue guernsey come Origin time. Conversely, the Broncos were thoroughly outplayed by a Storm side intent on not being on the end of three straight losses and will require huge performances from Payne Haas and Tevita Pangai Junior in order to have any chance of countering the rampaging Rabbitohs attack. Despite the Broncos recording a victory over Souths in 2020, one of their only bright spots of their season, and Cody Walker missing this round due to suspension, the Rabbitohs are able to call upon Benji Marshall to fill the void in the halves and have too much firepower for a young Brisbane side.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -21.5 ($1.90)
New Zealand Warriors ($1.34) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ($3.25)
Friday 9th April, 6:00PM, Central Coast Stadium
While these sides clashed in the grand final a decade ago on the back of one of the great finals runs from the Warriors, I think all NRL fans would be comfortable in saying that match up won’t be repeated in 2021. The Sea Eagles continued their torrid start to the season, suffering another 40 point defeat, this time at the hands of premiership favourites the Panthers and the post-game press conferences revealed a team without many answers to a lot of questions, particularly in defence where they have missed 140 tackles, second most through the first 4 rounds. The Warriors were competitive through the first 40 minutes against the Roosters at the SCG last round, trailing 16-12 at halftime before the class of the Roosters shone through to down them 32-12. In another early season injury blow for the New Zealand side, star forward Adin Fonua Blake, averaging 140 run metres per match and more than one offload per game, has been ruled out indefinitely with a knee injury. However, with Warriors having made the most post contact metres, combined with the Sea Eagles defensive lapses, I’m comfortable in them recording a resounding victory and heaping more pressure on Des Hasler and his Manly side.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors -7.5 ($1.90)
Penrith Panthers ($1.42) v Canberra Raiders ($2.85)
Friday 9th April, 7:55PM, Bluebet Stadium
The Panthers are the real deal. Often teams with a young core, can suffer the dreaded ‘second year syndrome’ however, the Panthers have raised their game to another level, particularly on the defensive side, having only allowed 16 points across the first four rounds. This will be another stern litmus test for Ivan Cleary’s Panthers as they host the fifth placed Raiders, who put in a clinical performance to defeat the Titans last round. The return of Joseph Tapine for the Raiders will see two of the competition’s best packs go up against each other, however despite the strength of the ever consistent Raiders, a rampaging Panthers outfit, in front of a sold out Bluebet Stadium may prove too much of a challenge for the Canberra side. While the plaudits typically go to players like Brian To’o and Nathan Cleary, it’s the backrow of the Panthers who provide attacking spark, and staunch defence of Kurt Capewell and the competition’s most improved player of the past 18 months Isaah Yeo who are the backbone of the Panthers rise to competition favourites. Negating them will be the focus of Ricky Stuart this week, and watch the ball running ability of Jack Wighton around the Panthers edge as being a key weapon in attempting to break down the aforementioned Penrith defense. In saying that, the confidence and talent across the park for Penrith is too much to ignore, and I feel they are going to put another marker in the sand and comprehensively defeat the Raiders this Friday.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 13+ ($2.40)
Gold Coast Titans ($1.35) v Newcastle Knights ($3.20)
Saturday 10th April, 3:00PM, Cbus Super Stadium
With Queensland having successfully managed its Covid outbreak, the Titan have been permitted to host this game with a spot inside the top eight on the line as they host the Knights on the Gold Coast. Both sides have produced wildly inconsistent play this season, reflected in both sides holding a 2-2 record, and both coming off losses last round. Despite the scoreline suggesting otherwise, they were far from disgraced in losing 20-4 to the Canberra Raiders, but the matter of the fact is that Justin Holbrook’s side were unable to crack the very strong Green Machine defence, only managing a solitary try via Corey Thompson. They will fancy their chances of bouncing back when they face an injury-ravaged Newcastle Knights, whose premiership hopes all but evaporated on an afternoon of carnage against the Dragons at home last Sunday. Tex Hoy, Mitchell Pearce and Kurt Mann have all suffered injuries and will be unavailable for Adam O’Brien this week, however they can be buoyed by the returns of Blake Green and superstar Kalyn Ponga. Despite the Titans comprehensively beating the Knights in their only clash of 2020, the Knights covered the line comfortably in both clashes between the sides in 2019, and while I am unsure if they will be able to win away from home, the Novacastrians will be able to make it close.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights +8.5 ($1.90)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($11.00) v Melbourne Storm ($1.04)
Saturday 10th April, 5:30PM, Stadium Australia
Canterbury’s defence has been historically bad to start the season, with it being their worst in terms of losses since 1971, and the worst statistically since 1928, surpassing founding club Glebe. Things aren’t about to get any easier this week against the Storm, who returned to the winners circle on the back of a dominant victory against the Broncos on the back of four tries to Ryan Papenhuyzen, with the livewire fullback scoring more points last round than Canterbury have all season. The Dogs meanwhile suffered their third consecutive duck egg last week against the Bunnies – a result that has not surprisingly left Melbourne as one of the shortest priced favourites this writer can remember. While the returns of Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Josh Jackson and Jake Averillo may provide the Bulldogs with extra attacking potency to score that elusive try, Melbourne hasn’t lost to Canterbury since 2016, and with last year’s 41-10 loss covering the line set here, I’m happy to be with the Storm to win in a canter.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -27.5 ($1.90)
Sydney Roosters ($1.40) v Cronulla Sharks ($2.95)
Saturday 10th April, 7:35PM, Sydney Cricket Ground
The Roosters and Sharks were two of the most impressive winners to emerge from Round 4 and both sides will look to keep their momentum rolling, with the Roosters looking to entrench themselves in the top four, while the Sharks are teetering on the edge of the top eight, and do not want to see themselves on the outside looking in. Sydney’s experienced campaigners came through with the goods last week as the evergreen Morris brothers and James Tedesco played a big part in the 32-12 win over the Warriors in the absence of several key players due to injury. Having scored a competition leading 25 tries, including 6 against the Warriors with the inexperienced halves pairing of Sam Walker and Drew Hutchison, suggests the tricolours season is looking positive after the season ending injury to Luke Keary and retirement of captain Jake Friend due to ongoing concussion issues. Also in their favour, is their dominance over the Cronulla based side, having not lost to them since the Sharks premiership year of 2016, and while players and team often down play these types of records, they are hard to ignore. Cronulla has made a relatively strong start this year apart from their round 3 match with Parramatta, while the return of Ronaldo Mulitalo and Jesse Ramien will strengthen a side high on confidence after last week’s thumping of the Cowboys. Despite this, the culture and style of play Trent Robertson has built over the past decade at the Roosters sees them unfazed by injuries or any unforeseen circumstances and I am confident they will put in another strong performance to cover the line. Include Angus Chrichton to score a try in any exotics.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -6.5 ($1.90)
Wests Tigers ($1.33) v North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30)
Sunday 11th April, 4:05PM, Leichhardt Oval
The Wests Tigers will return to Leichhardt Oval for the first time this season when they welcome the North Queensland Cowboys to the iconic suburban ground on Sunday afternoon. After edging the Newcastle Knights on the road for their first win of the season in round 3, the Tigers took the fight up to the Parramatta Eels at Stadium Australia on Monday, being within two points with five minutes remaining before two late tries to the Eels blew the score out to 36-22. Michael Maguire’s side will fancy their chances of a second win for the season when they face the winless Cowboys, who are now coached by Tigers premiership winner in 2005, Todd Payten.I was confident the proud North Queensland side would have been able to muster a better performance than the first several rounds however the horror start to the season continued when they were thrashed 48-10 by the men from the Shire, making them one of three teams yet to crack their season duck. At times the Sharks looked like they were at the Captains run, such was the ease of their tries with the Cowboys having missed a league leading 144 tackles so far this year. That followed on from a humiliating 44-8 loss to the Gold Coast Titans at home, as well as a 25-18 loss to the Dragons, also at home, and a 24-0 shutout at the hands of the Penrith Panthers in Round 1. Jason Taumololo and Kyle Feldt return from injury and suspension respectively, and the Cowboys will need every inch of the former Dally M medalists game breaking ability if they are to compete Sunday, and through the remainder of the season. It is still hard to see when the club’s first win of the season will come and with a capacity crowd expected in Sydney’s inner West I think the Tigers should be able to secure the two points in a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers 1-12 ($3.30)
Parramatta Eels ($1.28) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($3.65)
Sunday 11th April, 6:15PM, Bankwest Stadium
Round 5 concludes with potentially the most intriguing match of the round on Sunday as the second-placed, and undefeated Eels, take on the competition’s surprise packets so far, the sixth-placed Dragons at Bankwest. Much like last year, Parramatta have flown out of the blokes to a perfect record through the first month of the season, but they’ll likely need to produce their best this week against a dangerous Dragons side that hasn’t lost since Round 1, and looks to be playing with confidence not seen from the Red V in many years. On the injury front, Parramatta should receive a boost up front with Ryan Matterson returning from a concussion, while the Dragons will also welcome back Jack Bird from suspension, who is shaping up to be one of the best off season recruits, and he will be looking to continue to return to the level which saw an Origin representative and premiership winner. Apart from a two point win over the Eels in round 14 last season, the Dragons have only secured one other win against Parramatta since 2016, but as mentioned, this is a different team under Andrew Griffin and they’ll be able to give the Eels a run for their money to end the round.
Recommended Bet: St George Illawarra Dragons +9.5 ($1.90)
A special mention to icon Tommy Raudonikis who passed away during the week, and I will end this round’s preview with one word - CATTLEDOG!
