State of Origin Game Three Preview
Wednesday, 18th November 8:10pm, Suncorp Stadium
History repeated itself in game two as like in the 2019 series the New South Wales (NSW) Blues bounced back from a defeat in game one to completely trounce the Queensland (QLD) Maroons in a 34-10 victory. With the series tied up at 1 a piece and the final game set for the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium then you can bet there’ll be some tense players coming into this one. Read on as we cast our eye over the recent history at Suncorp, the teams, key matchups, our best bet and our predicted first try scorer.
2020 State of Origin Game Three Lineups
With just one game in the series to go and both sides sitting on one win a piece the selection choices have never been more important for both coaches. For NSW coach Brad Fittler he has followed the mantra that if it ain’t broke then don’t fix it with his side as he keeps the same 17 from their game two success. Their only doubt was winger Josh Addo-Carr who suffered a toe injury in game two but he is considered to right go for the game three decider. On the other hand QLD will go in with two debutants as Corey Allan comes onto the wing after Phillip Sami had a shocker in game two and Harry Grant comes into the 14 role with Ben Hunt out of the side. Queensland will also be sweating on the fitness of Cameron Munster and Xavier Coates who are both under injury clouds after concussion and leg injuries in game two. The other change that QLD has made is the return of Melbourne prop Christian Welch who starts at prop with Dunamis Lui reverting to the bench and youngster Moeaki Foutaika dropping out of the side.
Key Match Ups
Nathan Cleary vs Daly Cherry-Evans
Game two finally saw NSW halfback Nathan Cleary play to his potential as he completely dominated his opposing number Daly Cherry-Evans in a man of the match performance. Cleary showed tremendous faith in his kicking game as he forced a number of dropouts from early kicking, a lot of the time from within his own half. These kicks placed QLD under humongous pressure and directly led to a couple of tries as well as Cleary having 1 line break and 1 line break assist himself. This kind of performance has been a long time coming for Cleary and it will be keeping QLD fans up at night if Cleary can translate his dominant NRL form into the origin arena on a consistent basis. As a result of Cleary’s dominant performance it unfortunately meant that QLD halfback Daly Cherry-Evans struggled to get a hold of the game in what was a quiet performance for his lofty standards. Cherry-Evans kicking game was well below par in comparison to Cleary’s and despite setting up QLD’s second try and having a strong hand in their first try he will be disappointed in his inability to control the game. If Cherry-Evans is to confirm his name as one of the best halfbacks in the competition and the Australian halfback then he will have to prove that he can outperform his opposite number otherwise both QLD and his incumbent Australian spot may be in danger.
Payne Haas vs Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
In light of Payne Haas’ & Tino Fa’asuamaleaui’s brawl in game two this matchup promises to be one of the most important battles in the decider. Both players have a strong history having played junior footy together but there was no love left on the field for them last week as both came to blows as they tried to dominate the middle third of the field. With both players sent to the bin, to the disappointment of their coaches, they will be desperate to prove that they can keep their heads in check and still dominate the game come Wednesday night. The winner of this battle may go a long way towards being the winner in the overall game as it was evident last week that Haas’ dominant performance in the middle provided his side with the go forward that they needed to control the tempo. Haas was superb in running for 165 metres with 3 tackle breaks and a 100% tackle efficiency in comparison to Tino who ran for 112 metres and missed two tackles. If Haas is able to control the middle third in the early stages again then look out QLD as it will be a long 80 minutes if last week is anything to go by.
Damien Cook vs Jake Friend
The final matchup that we feel will be pivotal for the result of this game is the battle between the two hookers. For New South Wales one of their best players has been Damien Cook who has shown his ability to turn a game on its head by catching out tired defenders around the ruck. Cook has been huge in running for 160 metres across the two matches and has a try to his name in what has been a huge series for him so far. On the other hand there is Jake Friend, who is a three time premiership winner with the Roosters but is a new face to origin as of this year. Friend, who has shown his defensive toughness in topping the tackle count in both of the first two games, is an origin made player but QLD desperately need him to play a stronger influence in attack. Throughout game two Friend barely ran the ball or caught the attention of the NSW defensive line and struggled to implement his kicking game. Without this QLD struggled to gain momentum and apply defensive pressure on NSW and if they are to replicate their game one performance then they would need a return of the form that saw him run for an extra 35 metres.
Recent History
Game two saw NSW completely dominate the QLD side as they completed at 89% in comparison to QLD’s 74%, had 8% more possession, ran for over 600m more and made 4 fewer errors. A replication of this performance, even with QLD’s home advantage, would see NSW walk away with their third consecutive Origin series. Unfortunately for NSW is that they have to come away with a victory in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium. In recent years Suncorp has been a tough battle ground for them as they have won just 2 from their last 13 attempts across the previous 10 years and their most recent win came back in 2017, a series that they still went on to lose. NSW do have one piece of history on their side though. With their 34 point effort in game two they can take confidence that no origin team who have conceded 30 points or more in a series have gone on to win the series and if QLD are to win on Wednesday night then they will have their own piece of history to overturn.
First Try Scorer
Both teams will be desperate to start fast in what will be an all important opening 20 minutes of the game. Despite us thinking that NSW will win the game we are leaning towards a QLD try to start the game. QLD showed in the last game that they have the ability to start well and they have formed a dangerous combination on their right edge attack. As a result we are liking the odds of Dane Gagai for first try scorer who has shown his ability to turn up in the big moments for QLD. After what was a quiet game for Gagai in game two expect him to come out firing in the early stages of the decider.
Recommended Bet: Dane Gagai First Try Scorer $17
Best Bet
Our best bet for the final origin game is tailored towards a NSW win. Despite NSW being away from home they boast the experience and the quality to overcome what looks like a rattled QLD side. QLD should have the ability to keep it relatively close but we feel NSW will triumph and win by 1-12, a winning margin that has occurred in three of the last four game three origin games.
Recommended Bet: New South Wales 1-12 $2.85
