Horse Racing Bets – Group 1 W.S. Cox Plate – Bluey’s Tips 2020

COX PLATE 2020 RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW

MOONEE VALLEY RACE 9 – 16:15 AEDT

3YO+ OPEN
2040m
AUD $5,000,000
Good4
Rail True Entire

OVERVIEW

2020 marks the 100^th running of the W.S. Cox Plate and although the celebrations on course will be subdued, the greatest two minutes in sport once again looks like one of the races of the year. Unlike the immediate history of the great race, this year’s edition looks mighty hard to find the winner with a host of internationals thrown in amongst a strong local contingent. With up to 10mm of rain predicted on Friday in Melbourne, and further showers on race morning, I’m predicting that we’ll be racing on at least a soft track. The rail is in the true position so they may be looking for runs a few lanes off the fence by this stage of the day.

SPEED MAP

Speed looks genuine enough here with the 3 year-old Grandslam likely to take it up with the light weight having led a very fast run Caulfield Guineas last start. Magic Wand looks the pick of the internationals to race prominent with James McDonald having to make a decision with Kolding on what he does from the awkward draw. Expecting him to push on. Fierce Impact potentially onto his back? Aspetar, Probabeel and Master Of Wine have all drawn low and should use their draws to settle handy. Mugatoo and Arcadia Queen settle midfield or just worse with Armory. Expecting Sir Dragonet to drift back with Humidor and Nettoyer who have both drawn wide. Pre-post favourite Russian Camelot has come up with the carpark draw, so Olly will have to make a decision early on whether to snag right back or attempt to push on and find a spot, potentially on the back of Kolding or Fierce Impact? Intriguing first furlong

1. KOLDING ($13) James McDonald/Chris Waller (Barrier 10)

After an indifferent autumn, the Chris Waller trained Ocean Park gelding has bounced back to form this spring winning the G1 George Main ((1600m) beating home Verry Elleegant) and the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) in Sydney. Showed last start that he could run out the 2000m having never previously won at the trip, beating home key rival Fierce Impact and also Avilius, who has since run very well in the Caulfield Cup. It has to be noted that that was a very slow run 2000m, (the race was run 5.5 lengths below benchmark to the 600m) essentially turning the race into a sit and sprint which certainly aided Kolding in getting the trip. The sectionals back this up with Kolding recording the fastest final 600/400/200m sectionals of the meeting. With this in mind, there has to be some question mark on him if the race is run at a strong tempo. It’s also interesting to note that day that he jumped $3.60 v Fierce Impact $2.30, and now Fierce Impact is more than twice his price? From the somewhat awkward alley I’m expecting J-Mac to roll forward and if they slow up he’s some chance of being there in the finish. Won’t mind a wet track and is certainly flying this prep but looks short enough now at the $13. Marked him longer.

2. HUMIDOR ($21) Craig Williams/Chris Waller (Barrier 14)

Now with Chris Waller the rising 8 year-old Humidor returns for his third Cox Plate tilt in 2020 after being controversially balloted out of the race last year. Is absolutely flying this prep the old boy after claiming the Feehan (1600m) 1^st up, before two gallant runs in the Underwood and Caulfield Stakes where he chased race fancies Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen. 4^th up on Saturday, he certainly looks to peak on the day and his record at the Valley is superb. Could do much worse than having him on your side at big odds. Best roughie.

3. FIERCE IMPACT ($34) Luke Currie/Matthew Smith (Barrier 12)

Fierce Impact is another runner bringing the Sydney form line through the Hill Stakes having chased Kolding home over the 2000m last start. Was unsuited there, ridden negatively in a slowly run race giving him no realistic chance of reeling in the winner. Sectionals home were still very strong. Long considered a handicapper, has shown that he can mix it in weight-for-age company this preparation having run very well 1^st up in the Warwick Stakes (1400m) before winning the Makybe Diva (1600m) 2^nd up (beating home Russian Camelot). Issue I have with him is that all of his best figures are at the mile. Like Kolding, all of his runs at 2000m have been at soft tempos so a strongly run race could see him found out. Although he’s an ultra-consistent galloper, I’m not sure that he has the right platform to be competitive heading into a Cox Plate. Coupled with the fact that it’s his first time around the Valley, and he gets no favours from the draw, he looks outclassed on Saturday.

4. MASTER OF WINE ($34) Michael Rodd/Team Hawkes (Barrier 1)

Master Of Wine backs up into the Cox Plate on the seven day back up having finished 4.6 lengths astern of Verry Elleegant in last week’s Caulfield Cup. Was heavily supported in the market there SP’ing the $7.00 third favourite, but was disappointing it must be said rolling forward on just an even lead speed for a G1 before dropping out fairly meekly in the straight. Team Hawkes had long stated that the Caulfield Cup was the grand final for this horse so you’d have to think it would be hard for him to improve in 7 days (the horse has never raced on the quick back up before), and especially back in trip 2400-2040, which he has also never faced. Historically he also faces a tough task with only one winner of the Cox Plate in the last 30 years having had their lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup (Maldivian in 2008). He showed that he was up to this class with a huge run in the Queen Elizabeth in the autumn (on a heavy track) but has failed to fire in the spring. Just don’t think he’s come back as well as this preparation and happy to oppose on Saturday.

5. MUGATOO ($26) John Allen/Kris Lees (Barrier 9)

Very interesting runner is the Australian Bloodstock stayer Mugatoo, who gets his chance in this year’s Cox Plate off a strong campaign having tasted success in the Newcastle Cup before a runner up placing last start in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m). Another ultra-consistent galloper, the Kris Lees trained gelding has won 5 of his 8 starts since arriving in Australia and amassed over $700k in prizemoney. Lines up on Saturday 5^th up this preparation, 3 weeks between runs, off what was a fairly slowly run Metrop (3.5 lengths slow for the class to the 600m). Settled midfield and presented as the winner up the rise only to be edged out late by Mirage Dancer who had the more economical run. Mirage Dancer has since come out and been gapped in the Caulfield Cup so the form has been far from franked. Nevertheless, he has always had a bit of brilliance about him this horse, and possesses a strong turn of foot so I like the step back to the 2040m. Has only really seen a fast race shape once in last year’s Tancred (2400m) where he tailed off but he may also have come to the end of the prep by that stage.  Put in a strong piece of work last Saturday at the Valley running strong splits so the fact that he seemed to get around the place well holds him in good stead come Saturday. I think he holds his price around the current mark and even though I doubt him as a winning chance at weight-for-age, I’m keen to see how he measures up.

6. ASPETAR ($17) Damian Lane/Roger Charlton (Barrier 3)

First of the internationals in saddlecloth order is the 6 year-old gelding Aspetar trained by Roger Charlton. A veteran of just 13 starts, this son of Al Kazeem arrives in Australia boasting a fairly strong international record, having won a G1 in Germany (beating 2018 CC winner Best Solution) at the end of last year before failing in a fastly run Hong Kong Vase where he started $41. His two runs this preparation have both been very good, running second to Magny Cours beaten a neck 1^st up over 2000m at Sandown, before a strong win in the G2 York Stakes at his latest. Magny Cours is a strong form line as he knocked over Persian King prior to that who subsequently came out and ran third in the Arc. The form out of his last start win at York has also proved strong with Lord Glitters coming out and running well behind Addeybb. Had a spin around the Valley last week where he worked with Sir Dragonet so the fact that he’s now seen the course is a big tick. Gets the services of Damian Lane and you’d suspect from the good draw they use him up early to sit close to the speed. Has won over 2400m so he should be strong late here even if it is a strongly run race. If there’s a niggle with him it may be that he doesn’t want it too wet, but at the $17 currently on offer I want to be with him and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start shorter on the day.

7. SIR DRAGONET ($13) Glen Boss/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Barrier 7)

Formerly with Coolmore before being acquired for Australian interests for a large sum, Sir Dragonet is another of the international contingent who makes his way into this year’s Cox Plate field. A winner of two of his nine career starts, he showed a stack of early promise winning his first two before starting favourite in the Epsom Derby where he was only just run over late by Anthony Van Dyck in a blanket go. His latest preparation has seen him finish runner up in three runs, the latest in the G1 Tattersal’s Gold Cup at the Curragh (2000m) where he was beaten by Magical, which is strong form. Key rival Armory ran 4th in that race, with both horses starting $19 in the market so you could easily argue that the gap between them here is too big. All in all, it’s hard to really know what to make of him. His SP profile from the UK undoubtedly highlights his talent but he has now gone winless for more than a year. Does look a very dour type, the camp have even stated that he is a horse that lacks a turn of foot, so you would suspect his best chance would be in a race run at a strong tempo where he can sustain that long run. Does look the most suited of the internationals on wet ground so any juice in the track will aid his chances. With that said, I’m not sure that he has the brilliance needed to win a Cox Plate and am happy to leave him out.

8. MAGIC WAND ($26) Mark Zahra/Aidan O’Brien (Barrier 4) Scratched

6-year-old mare from the all conquering Ballydoyle operation who makes her way back to Australia after running 4th in this race last year before going on to claim the MacKinnon on the final day of the Flemington carnival. Started $9 in the race last year and was super brave racing on speed at a brutal tempo (11 lengths above benchmark) and still wasn’t beaten far behind the winner in Lys Gracieux. Looked right on track for a race like this when running 4th in the G1 Coral Eclipse (2000m) where she was beaten by Ghaiyyath and Enable, just about the hottest European form you can get. Her two runs since though have been incredibly disappointing. Led them up in the G1 Nassau Stakes (2000m) during the Goodwood Carnival only to give in rather weakly over the final furlong, finishing 5th having been sent out the $2.80 favourite. Market chose to forgive her after that in the G2 Blandford Stakes (SP’ed $2.80 fav) at the Curragh but again disappointed and faded right out of the race to be beaten a comprehensive 17 lengths. If you knew she was turning up at her best you could entertain her as she certainly has the connections to win this race, however, with the cloud on her current form it makes it very hard to come into her.

9. ARCADIA QUEEN ($5.50) William Pike/Grant & Alana Williams (Barrier 8)

She shot right back into Cox Plate calculations did Arcadia Queen after her scintillating last start win in the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) where she lowered the colours of the long time favourite Russian Camelot. Had the key gear change there of bar plates off and got a slow race shape that really suited as she had the best turn of foot in the race (recorded the 2nd quickest last 400m of the day, 3Q L200m). Thought her start prior in the Underwood (1800m) was also very good getting back to the inside in the straight which was clearly lengths inferior on the day. Just think they might have finally got this mare right. Has had a few set-backs since recording a huge figure when winning the Kingstown Town back west, but now looks to have recaptured some of her best form out to a trip that she appreciates. Has shown that she can do it off fast or slow tempos so she ticks that box and I like the draw here for Pike, should get away from the inside and look to get a cart into the race when they start to ramp it up from the 600m. The unknown with her is the weather. If the Valley gets a stack of rain and we edge into the heavy range, she’s yet to see it and the market could really take her on. Weather pending, she’s no doubt a player but I still have a few in front of her.

10. NETTOYER ($81) Billy Egan/Wendy Roche (Barrier 13)

Reigning Doncaster handicap winner who comes into this off a decent run in the Craven Plate (2000m) behind Think It Over in Sydney. Is a course and distance winner here at the Valley and will appreciate any rain but she is clearly outclassed here in this field. Long odds for a reason.

11. RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($4.80) Damien Oliver/Danny O’Brien (Barrier 15)

Long-time favourite in futures markets the Russian has eased in early markets thanks to a last start defeat at the hands of Arcadia Queen and a seemingly un-friendly barrier draw on Tuesday. Personally I think the horse is right on track here 4th up and the only thing is we are getting a better price. Simply wasn’t suited by the sit-sprint tempo last start in the Caulfield Stakes. Arcadia Queen had the cold drop on him there and he may also have been slightly flat off the Underwood run where he returned a huge benchmark figure. He proved in the Underwood that he is much better suited in truly run races, which you’d have to think we are likely to get here. What I love most about that run is that he showed he has the ability to go out fast but also come home fast, which is the sign of an elite racehorse. Throw in two dominant SP’s over Arcadia Queen, along with the likelihood of a wet track and I think it’s advantage the Russian big time. I think Olly rolls forward from the wide draw (which may actually be an advantage at this stage of the day) and tries to slot in, then really pours the pressure on early and makes this a test. If he does then I think he’s awfully hard to run down. On top.

12. ARMORY ($6.00) Ben Melham/ Aidan O’Brien (Barrier 6)

The international with the most focus in this year’s Cox Plate, Armory arrives on Australian shores off an incredibly strong last start rating where he ran third in the G1 Irish Champion (2000m) behind Magical and Ghaiyyath. Finishing 4th was Sottsass who has since come out and won the Arc so we know it’s a strong form line. The query with him there is that he was completely dismissed by the market having been sent out as a $67 chance. Ratings wise it was a huge spike so there has to be some query on whether he can recreate it here? Another niggle is the potential wet track. All of his better form is on fast tracks so if the rain arrives he would have to be somewhat of a risk of getting through it. He was comprehensively beaten by Sir Dragonet in the Gold Cup on a rain affected track earlier this year. Looking past those factors, there’s no doubt that he is a serious player as he is a horse that has a booming turn of foot, as evidenced by some of his form over 1400m and the mile. At the current price and with the expected forecast I’m happy to risk him but he’s the one I’m scared of for sure.

13. PROBABEEL ($8.50) Kerrin McEvoy/Jamie Richards (Barrier 2)

Been the big firmer in early markets after coming up with a good draw on Tuesday. Comes into this off a very strong last start win in the G1 Epsom (1600m) where she had no luck from a wide draw, sat deep throughout in a fast run race and was still too strong drawing away late to put away her old sparring partner in Funstar. 4th up, that looks a strong platform progressing to the 2000m here which she has only since once prior in a G1 Vinery where she finished second to Shout The Bar. It has to be noted that that was a very slowly run 2000m, so the jury is still out for mine on her at the trip. I do think she is much better suited at 1400 and the mile, which her ratings reinforce. Despite this, she is drawn to get a perfect run here and any rain shouldn’t really bother her. She’s an absolute beauty so no doubt she runs well, just think she may find a few better on the day and at the single figure odds she was another I was happy to leave out. Had her marked more of a $13 chance.

14. GRANDSLAM ($21) Jye McNeil/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Barrier 5)

The lone 3-year-old of the field, Grandslam certainly brings an interesting dimension to this year’s Cox Plate. The full brother to Caulfield Cup winner Jameka, Grandslam was last seen running a very brave third in the Caulfeild Guineas where he rolled along in front at a brutal tempo (almost 16 lengths faster than benchmark to the 600m). Loved his fight there which signals a step to 2000m won’t pose any problems. First go on rain affected tracks is a query but you would think Jye McNeil would attempt to roll along in front here with the light weight Shamus Award/So You Think style and turn it into a catch me if you can scenario. 3-year-olds have a very strong record in the race and with that positive racing pattern, he has to be somewhat of a hope but there’s no way I could take $21 about him especially coming off a $61 SP in the Guineas. That was an incredibly taxing run so how he bounces through it will be interesting to note from a mounting yard perspective. Certainly can’t doubt the camp but not for me.

PICKS:

1. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
2. ASPETAR
3. ARMORY
4. ARCADIA QUEEN

Absolutely lottery of a Cox Plate this year with the weather to have a big say on the final market but sticking fat with Russian Camelot. Think he peaks here 4th up off a very strong campaign. Simply unsuited by the race shape last start. Think he’ll relish a fast run race and whereas a few others may be disadvantaged by any cut in the ground, he should relish it. Don’t think the wide draw will be an issue by this stage of the day and we get the services of Damien Oliver for Danny O’Brien. Happy to be with him. Aspetar is the international that interests me the most off two very strong runs this time in, the latest in the G2 York Stakes where he put away a good field with ease. The form around him stacks up and with a positive map and rider, he simply looks over the odds. Armory’s no doubt the one I’m most scared of. Brings a huge last start run into Saturday that if he could replicate would just about see him too good. Just whether or not the track is too wet for him will be the question. Same goes for Arcadia Queen.

Backing Russian Camelot & Aspetar.

Good luck punters!