NRL Finals Week One Preview
With the regular season now done and dusted we turn our attention to the finals as the top eight look to battle it out for premiership glory in what has been an unforgettable season. Read on as we preview the four fixtures in week one of the finals, which sees a couple of potentially lopsided games and some much closer ones.
Penrith Panthers ($1.77) vs Sydney Roosters ($2.05)
Friday, 2nd October 7:50pm, Panthers Stadium
The 2020 finals kicks off with an absolute thriller as the minor premiers the Penrith Panthers take on the double defending premiers the Sydney Roosters at Panthers Stadium. The Panthers come into this fixture on the back of a record equalling 15 consecutive wins as they defeated the Bulldogs 42-0. This fixture was highlighted by the Panthers once again clinical attack and their brute strength up front as they ran for over 700m more than the Bulldogs despite missing a number of key players. On the other hand the Roosters suffered their worst defeat in years as they conceded 60 points to arch rivals the Rabbitohs whilst only managing 8 in attack. This loss has severely dented the Roosters premiership hopes as their normally strong defence completely capitulated under the threat of the Rabbitohs left edge attack. To make matters worse is the fact that the Panthers already boast a 20-14 victory over the Roosters from round one of this year in what was their third win from their last four matches against the Roosters at Panthers Stadium. This week will see both sides welcome back a couple of key players though. For the Panthers their rested trio of Dylan Edwards, Stephen Crichton & Viliame Kikau all return as Daine Laurie, Matt Burton & Spencer Leniu drop out of the side whilst Tyrone May and Kurt Capewell shift to the bench. For the Roosters they welcome back Brett Morris, Joey Manu, Isaac Liu & Lindsay Collins after being rested in place of Mitch Aubusson, Nat Butcher, Matt Ikuvalu & Poasa Faamausuli and Freddy Lussick comes in for the injured Jake Friend. As mentioned previously the Panthers have got the wood over the Roosters in recent times at their home ground as well as just over 70% of home teams winning in the history of the first week of finals then we’re leaning towards the Panthers here. In what should be a much closer contest than last week's fixtures for both sides we’ll lean towards the Panthers by 1-12 here, a margin that the winning side has won by in the last three meetings at Panthers Stadium between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.20) vs Cronulla Sharks ($4.50)
Saturday, 3rd October 5:40pm, GIO Stadium
A replay of last week's match up sees the Canberra Raiders take on the Cronulla Sharks in a sudden death encounter at GIO Stadium. Last week both teams met at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in a match where despite missing essentially their entire first team the Raiders were able to prevail 38-28 and succumb the Sharks to going the entire season without defeating a top eight side. This stat proves concerning for the Sharks as they will know that despite missing a couple players they will face a full strength Raiders side this week and will have to overturn last week’s result away from home. The Raiders will also take confidence in the fact that they hold the last three wins against the Sharks and as a result will start short priced favourites in this one. As mentioned previously the Raiders will welcome back a plethora of stars for this week's clash. In the backs these stars include Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jarrod Croker, Jordan Rapana, Jack Wighton & George Williams who come in for Adam Cook, Matt Timoko, Harley Smith-Shields, Matt Frawley and Sam Williams respectively. In the forwards John Bateman, Elliot Whitehead, Josh Papalii, Joe Tapine all return as Sio Soliola, Hudson Young, Corey Harawira-Nawa and Siliva Havili drop to the bench and Kai O’Donnell, Darby Medlyn, Jarrett Subloo and Ryan Sutton drop out of the 17. For the Sharks halfback Chad Townsend returns from suspension whilst Sione Katoa, Josh Dugan, Toby Rudolf, Blayke Brailey and Siosifa Talakai return from being rested meaning that Wade Graham moves back to the second row & Scott Sorensen reverts to the bench and Nene Macdonald, Mawene Hiroti, Teig Wilton, Billy Magoulias and Daniel Vasquez drop out of the side. Despite the Sharks getting a couple key players back they appear to be miniscule in comparison to the weight of players that the Raiders have back. Add to the fact that the Sharks are still missing the competition's leading player for try assists in Shaun Johnson as well as Matt Moylan then we’re confident in the Raiders putting in an even more dominant performance than last week’s win. For a little bit of extra value we’ll take the Raiders with the line seeing as they’ve covered it in two of their last three wins and have the home advantage with a much stronger side for this week’s clash.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -13.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.20) vs Parramatta Eels ($4.50)
Saturday, 3rd October 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Saturday’s second game sees the Melbourne Storm take on the Parramatta Eels at their temporary home of Suncorp Stadium with a spot in the preliminary final on the line. The Storm will be desperate to prove a point in this one as they will have their 14-0 loss to the Eels from round 15 fresh in their minds. In this clash, despite being severely undermanned, the Storm failed to hold onto the ball and were outmuscled in the middle of the park in what was a very uncharacteristic performance from them. Since then the Storm have gone 4-1 with their only loss coming last week against the Dragons, where they rested almost all of their star players with this week's finals clash in mind. On the other hand the Eels went in almost full strength against the Tigers and just scraped through with a 28-24 victory to hold onto their spot in the top four. Their attacking performance from this match was much improved from recent weeks but Eels coach Brad Arthur will be concerned that his team trailed 24-16 to a bottom 8 team and only just scraped through in the end. Like previous games this week, this match will see both sides make a host of changes. For the Storm they welcome back almost their entire backline as Ryan Papenhuyzen is joined by Josh Addo-Carr & Suliasi Vunivalu on the wing, Justin Olam & Brenko Lee in the centres and Cameron Munster & Jahrome Hughes in the halves as they replace Sandor Earl, Paul Momirovski, Ricky Leutele, Isaac Lumelume, Ryley Jacks and Cooper Johns. In the forwards Jesse Bromwich, Kenny Bromwich, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Cameron Smith and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui all return as Brandom Smith & Tom Eisenhuth revert to the bench and Tui Kamikamica, Chris Lewis, Aaron Booth, Max King, Darryn Schonig and Aaron Pene are all out of the 17. For the Eels Dylan Brown returns from ankle surgery in the halves as Will Smith moves to the bench, Michael Jennings takes Brad Takairangi’s centre spot, Reagan Campbell-Gillard returns at prop as Kane Evans moves to the bench, Shaun Lane comes back into the starting side with Andrew Davey on the bench and Marata Niukore comes onto the bench at the expense of Daniel Alvaro, George Jennings & Oregon Kaufusi. Despite the Eels boasting the most recent win against the Storm they face the daunting prospect of taking on a Storm side who have won 14 from their last 15 at Suncorp Stadium and are yet to lose two in a row all season. With this in mind we’re quite confident in a Melbourne victory but the current market has them sized at considerable favourites with a huge line, which may be too much for a finals match between two top four sides. As a result we’re confident in the competitions 2nd and 3rd best defences keeping it close enough for Melbourne to prevail with a win by 12 points or less.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $3.05
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.32) vs Newcastle Knights ($3.40)
Sunday, 4th October 4:05pm, ANZ Stadium
The final elimination game of the round sees the South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Newcastle Knights at ANZ Stadium. Both sides come into this match on the back of contrasting performances as the Rabbitohs put in arguably their best performance all season whilst the Knights put in their worst performance of the season. For the Rabbitohs they defeated arch rivals the Sydney Roosters 60-8 in an absolute masterclass from Cody Walker and 5 try hero Alex Johnston. This performance will strike fear in the rest of the competition as Souths have the special ability to score points in quick succession and on their day could defeat almost anyone in the competition. For the Knights they suffered a humiliating defeat to the 9th placed Titans side as they went down 36-6 in a severe blow to their premiership hopes. In this loss the Knights again struggled to hold onto the ball as they completed at just 76% thanks to 10 errors and looked lost in defence as they missed 34 tackles in a landslide defeat. This week will see both sides make only a couple of minor changes. For the Rabbitohs Jaydn Su’a returns from suspension meaning that Cameron Murray can move back to lock, Liam Knight to the pine and Hame Sele out of the side. For the Knights Lachlan Fitzgibbon returns from injury as Sione Mata’utia moves to the bench and Brodie Jones drops out of the side. Whether these changes are enough to fix the Knights problems remains to be seen but they will take confidence from their 20-18 victory against the Rabbitohs from round 10 of this year, which was their second consecutive win against them. Despite this the Knights away form has been woeful this year in managing just four wins from nine matches and they face a Rabbitohs side who have won four from six at ANZ throughout the year. With this in mind as well as the large number of injuries that the Knights have to their key position players then we’re leading towards the Rabbitohs in this one. To add a little bit more value then the Rabbitohs have already shown their ability to score points quickly as well as the Knights with their ability to concede quickly and with the Knights last three losses being by 30 points each then we’re confident in Souths running away with this one and covering the line in the process.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -8.5 $1.90
