NRL Round 16 Preview
Round 15 saw two teams get held to 0 as well as a couple of the top 8 teams send out a commanding statement about their premiership credentials with big wins. Read on as we preview round 16 as we enter the final 5 weeks of the 2020 regular season.
Parramatta Eels ($1.45) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.75)
Thursday, 27th August 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
The round's first game sees a huge top 8 clash between the Parramatta Eels and the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Bankwest Stadium in what could be a defining moment in both teams' season. For the Eels a win against the Rabbitohs will help their quest towards a top 2 spot and earning a home final as they hunt down the 2nd placed Melbourne Storm side, whom they defeated 14-0 last week. This victory was highlighted by a dominant performance in the middle third as they outmuscled the Storm and became the first side to hold the Storm scoreless since the Cowboys in 2014. For the Rabbitohs they completely dismantled the Sea Eagles by 56 points to 16 as their left edge attack proved lethal with 2 tries each to Alex Johnston, Campbell Graham and Latrell Mitchell. This was without a doubt the Rabbitohs best performance of the year and they will be looking for their first win against a top 4 side all year in this clash. Unfortunately for the Rabbitohs they lose the competitions leading try scorer in Johnston this week as he misses out due to a head injury as Corey Allan replaces him on the wing whilst both Dange Gagai & Liam Knight return from injury and suspension in the place of Steven Marsters and Kurt Dillon. On the other hand the Eels only change comes from the suspension of Marata Niukore as he is replaced by Andrew Davey on the bench. In recent history both teams have been relatively even in alternating wins in their last four matches, with the Eels winning their most recent clash last year. Where there may appear to be an edge is in both the form lines and the turnaround from both teams recent games. In terms of each side's turnaround, Souths will be coming off a 5 day turnaround in comparison to the Eels 7 day turnaround and when looking at the teams each side have been defeating it adds to the support of the Eels. The Eels have enjoyed wins against top 8 sides such as the Storm, Knights & Sharks in recent weeks whilst Souths have beaten a string of bottom 8 teams and lost to top 8 teams the Knights & the Raiders. Until the Rabbitohs are able to beat a top 8 team it’s hard to find much value in them, although we do think they have enough about them to keep this relatively close so we will take the Eels by 1-12, a margin they have won by in their last two victories against Souths.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels 1-12 $2.80
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.32) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.40)
Friday, 28th August 6:00pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Friday’s first game sees the St. George Illawarra Dragons take on the Gold Coast Titans at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium with their slim finals hopes on the line. With the Dragons sitting two wins outside the eight with five games to go their finals chances appear small but with two winnable games coming up they'll be looking to mount pressure on the 8th placed Sharks side. Last week the Dragons escaped a huge scare from the Broncos as they prevailed 28-24 in what was a high quality contest that was highlighted by a 91% completion rate from the Dragons. This week they come up against a Titans side who have lost their last two to the Sharks and the Raiders after conceding 66 points across these losses. This stat will concern coach Justin Holbrook as the two weeks prior to this they had managed just 28 points conceded and they will be hoping to improve against a Dragon's side who are averaging just under 20 points per game in attack. Thankfully for Holbrook he welcomes back star halfback Ash Taylor as he takes the place of Tanah Boyd but will lose forward Moeiaki Fotuaiki to suspension, who is replaced by Tyrone Peachey, whilst Mitch Rein starts at hooker over Nathan Peats and Beau Fermor takes Keegan Hipgrave’s back row spot. For the Dragons they lose two big forwards to injury & suspension in Korbin Sims & Paul Vaughan as they are replaced by Jackson Ford and Billy Brittain. Despite these losses the Dragons remain firm in the market and it’s no surprise as they have enjoyed 5 wins in a row against the Titans in what are traditionally high scoring games. In 4 of their last 5 victories the Dragons have managed to win by 12 points or more and with their attack beginning to click with Ben Hunt at hooker and the Titans poor defensive effort then we are leaning towards a Dragons win, covering the line in the process.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -9.5 $1.85
Sydney Roosters ($1.04) vs Brisbane Broncos ($11.00)
Friday, 28th August 7:55pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
A clash between two of the biggest clubs in the league in the Sydney Roosters & Brisbane Broncos is brought to us in the second game on Friday in what could be a fairly one sided contest if previous meetings is anything to go by. Already in round 4 of this year the Roosters swept past a helpless Broncos side in a 59-0 drubbing of what was once Queensland's most dominant club. Since then the Roosters have kicked on as they sit 4th on the table despite a mammoth injury list whilst the Broncos have managed just one win in the last 3 months. Throughout this period the Broncos losses have been characterised by second half capitulations and they suffered another late collapse in their 28-24 loss to the Dragons last week. For the Roosters they survived a scare early in the second half as the Tigers were looming at 20-12 but they regained composure in a 38-16 victory. This week sees the Roosters welcome back some big names too. Daniel Tupou returns on the wing for Matt Ikuvalu as well as Boyd Cordner returning in the second row for Daniel Fifita, with Nat Butcher reverting to the bench. For the Broncos they lose Anthony Milford to injury as Sean O’Sullivan takes his spot in the halves whilst Corey Paix starts at hooker for the suspended Isaac Luke with Brodie Croft coming onto the bench as the utility. As mentioned previously the Roosters have the edge over the Broncos in recent history & form and the market certainly hasn’t missed this as they have installed Roosters at one of the shortest prices in recent history. Despite this the overs line for this week is still appealing with both sides featuring in high scoring matches over recent weeks. Last week both sides featured in matches that had over 50 points and with the Roosters regaining a couple key players as well as coming up against the competition's worst defence then we are predicting another high scoring affair between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 46.5 $1.88
New Zealand Warriors ($3.05) vs Newcastle Knights ($1.38)
Saturday, 29th August 3:00pm, Scully Park
Saturday’s first game sees the return of country footy as the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights take their clash out to Tamworth’s Scully Park in a bid to engage the NRL’s wider audience. Thankfully for the people of Tamworth both teams are coming off wins and should be full of confidence as the Knights held the Cowboys scoreless whilst the Warriors overcame an 8 point deficit in their victory against the Bulldogs. For the Knights their win against the Cowboys was highlighted by rock solid defence and relentless pressure but they will be frustrated that they couldn’t score more points after spending over 50 tackles in the Cowboys 20. For the Warriors they survived a slow start to win 20-14 against the Bulldogs that was largely thanks to a huge 2043 run metres and a dominant performance from their forward pack. This week sees the Warriors add more strength to their forward pack with the return of Eliesa Katoa as he takes Isaiah Papali’i’s place as well as the return of halfback Chanel Harris-Tavita in place of Paul Turner. For the Knights their depth will be tested this week as mid-season recruit Blake Green suffered an ACL injury last round forcing Mason Lino into the side for his first game at five-eight this year. Last time these two teams met was only back in round one this year, a game where the Knights won 20-0 in what was their second consecutive game against the Warriors where they held them scoreless. With the Knights looking for a rare feat of holding a team to zero in 3 consecutive games as well as in consecutive weeks there will be plenty of pressure on them to deliver another sturdy defensive performance. We certainly believe they can do this but whether they have the strike power in attack to score points with so many key points remains to be seen. Despite this they definitely have enough to continue their dominant record of 3 wins from their last 4 against the Warriors albeit in a little bit closer fashion.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 1-12 $2.75
Cronulla Sharks ($1.25) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($4.00)
Saturday, 29th August 5:30pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The 2015 & 2016 premiership winning sides clash in Saturday’s second game as the Cronulla Sharks take on the North Queensland Cowboys at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. The Sharks will be hoping to bounce back from last week's 38-12 loss as they try to hold onto their top 8 spot with just 5 rounds left in the season. In this loss the Panthers exposed the Sharks slimsy defence, especially on both edges as they missed 43 tackles and failed to stop the Panthers go forward. For the Cowboys they were kept scoreless for the first time since 2012 as they went down 12-0 to the Knights. This loss was summed up by their 73% completion rate and will hurt even more after the loss of star forward Jason Taumalolo to a calf injury. As a result of this injury Josh McGuire has moved to lock with Francis Molo starting at prop but the Cowboys will welcome back former Shark Valentine Holmes onto the wing, Murray Tualagi at centre & Daejarn Asi at five eight as Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Tom Opacic and Ben Hampton all miss out. For the Sharks Connor Tracey & Shaun Johnson will form a new halves pairing with Matt Moylan & Braydon Trindall both out and Briton Nikora returns in the second row with Siosifa Talaki moving to the bench. In recent history the Sharks have dominated this contest in winning the last 4 fixtures between the sides including a 26-16 victory from earlier this year. This 10 point victory was their second in a row by a small margin and with both sides featuring a couple of key outs then we’re predicting another close game that should go the way of the Sharks. The Sharks have been dominant against the bottom 8 sides this year and with their finals aspirations on the line they should be able to prevail in another close fixture.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.05
Penrith Panthers ($1.15) vs Wests Tigers ($5.50)
Saturday, 29th August 7:35pm, Panthers Stadium
A Western Sydney derby between the first placed Penrith Panthers and the ninth placed Wests Tigers is brought to us from Panthers Stadium in Saturday’s prime time game. For the Panthers they are currently the hottest team in the competition as they sit on a 10 game winning streak and sit 3 points clear at the top of the table. Last week they solidified this position with a 26 point victory over the eighth placed Sharks in another clinical attacking performance led by Nathan Cleary. This win will scare a Tigers side who need to win almost every remaining game if they are to have any chance of playing finals. Last week for the Tigers they were unfortunately blown off the park by the Roosters as they lacked concentration and focus in key moments despite matching with them for large parts of the game. As a result Tigers coach Michael Maguire has made a couple of important changes to his forward pack. Star hooker Harry Grant returns from injury as Jacob Liddle moves to the bench & Josh Reynolds drops out whilst Alex Twal starts at lock with Matt Eisenhuth reverting to the bench, Thomas Mikaele starting at prop and Russell Packer dropped. For the Panthers they lose Viliame Kikau & Api Koroisau to suspension & injury respectively as Isaah Yeo moves to the back row, James Fisher-Harris to lock, Moses Leota to prop and Mitch Kenny to dummy half. In the backline Brian To’o returns on the wing as Brent Naden shifts into the centres and Tyrone May drops to the bench to act as the utility. Despite these changes the Panthers haven’t been missed in the market as they start incredibly short and rightfully so after 10 wins in a row, including a win against the Tigers from earlier this year. In this win the Panthers prevailed by 7 points in what has been a common trend for them as 6 of their wins have been by 12 points or less. With this in mind and the fact that the Panthers are missing a couple key attacking players in Kikau & Koroisau this week then we are keen on taking them by 1-12 this week in what should be a closer than expected game.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $3.20
Melbourne Storm ($1.20) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($4.20)
Sunday, 30th August 4:05pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
One of the great 21st century rivalries is renewed in Sunday’s first game as the Melbourne Storm take on the Manly Sea Eagles at Sunshine Coast Stadium. The history between these two sides cannot be understated as both sides were the dominant forces in the NRL for the late 2000s and early 2010s. These days the Storm have continued their dominance as they sit second on the ladder whilst the Sea Eagles have struggled with injuries throughout 2020. These injuries appeared to take its toll on the Sea Eagles last week as they went down 56-16 to the Rabbitohs in a loss that highlighted their shaky edge defence. For the Storm they suffered their first loss in two months as injuries also depleted their forward pack and halves in a 14-0 loss to the Eels. Thankfully for the Storm they welcome back a host of stars this week as Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Jesse Bromwich all return from injuries and suspension. As a result Brandon Smith & Kenny Bromwich are out with injury whilst Ryley Jacks, Cooper Johns and Albert Vete all drop out of the side with Tom Eisenhuth taking Kenny Bromwich’s back row spot. For the Sea Eagles Tevita Funa swaps from wing to fullback with Reuben Garrick, Martin Tauapau starts in the forwards for Taniela Paseka, Jack Gosiewski starts in the centres for the injured Moses Suli and Joel Thompson returns from injury with Corey Waddell dropping to the bench. Despite both teams being completely different sides from a decade ago they still share the wins with three wins a piece from their last six encounters, with their latest one being a 14 point Storm victory in round 1 of this year. With the Storms returning players as well as the Sea Eagles deepening injury crisis then it is hard to see anything but a Storm victory in this one. Add to the fact that the Storm's last two victories against the Sea Eagles have covered this week's line and that they are coming off their worst attacking performance in 6 years then we are confident that they will want to reignite their attack against a shaky Manly defence.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -12.5 $1.85
Canberra Raiders ($1.11) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($6.50)
Sunday, 30th August 6:30pm, GIO Stadium
The final game of the round sees the Canberra Raiders take on the Canterbury Bulldogs at GIO Stadium. The Raiders will be hoping to continue their dominant form that has seen them win five of their last six matches as they look to push for a top four spot. During this period the Raiders have shown a mix of strong defence and clinical attack as they have scored 72 points in the last two weeks whilst also keeping teams to 20 points or under in all of their victories. Last week’s victory was another dominant attacking performance as they beat the Titans 36-16 thanks to a two try performance from five eight Jack Wighton. This week they will come up against a Bulldogs side who they hold the last 3 victories against, including having not lost to them at GIO Stadium since 2015. For the Bulldogs they remain on the bottom of the table after letting a 14-6 lead slip against the Warriors last week in a disappointing 20-14 loss. This loss was highlighted by some poor decision making and kicking as they tried to hold onto their lead and they will need a much more controlled performance if they are to get anything against the Raiders this week. As a result of last week's loss interim Bulldogs coach has made a string of changes in a bid to get them off the bottom of the ladder. These include the dropping of new recruit Luke Thompson as well as Jack Cogger, Reimis Smith, Tim Lafai, Jake Averillo and Sauaso Sue. In their place comes Lachlan Lewis at halfback, Marcelo Montoya at centre, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak on the wing, Dylan Napa at prop, Aiden Tolam at lock, Josh Jackson into the back row and Matt Doorey, Dean Britt & Renouf To’omaga join the bench. For the Raiders the only change to their 17 has been Corey Harawira-Nawa being replaced by debutant Matthew Timoko on the bench as well as Josh Papalii, Dunamis Lui & Hudson Young all returning to the starting side with Joe Tapine and Ryan Sutton taking their bench spots. As mentioned previously the Raiders have been the dominant side in this fixture over recent years and with the mass changes that the Bulldogs have made as well as their inconsistent form then we are leaning towards another Raiders victory here. To add a little bit of extra value we are looking at the Raiders line as they have covered the line in their last two victories and if they want to challenge for a top four spot then they will be stressing the importance of big wins at the moment.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -17.5 $1.90
