NRL Round 10 Preview
Round 9 saw the gap between contenders & pretenders seemingly grow as a couple of top 8 teams sent out messages to the rest of the competition whilst others were left to rue a couple of serious injuries and some concerns about their form. Read on this week as we cast our eye over the fixtures in round 10 as we look to continue on with a couple of decent weeks in finding some winning bets.
Sydney Roosters ($1.25) vs Canberra Raiders ($4.00)
Thursday, 16th July 7:50pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Round 10 kicks off with a rematch of the 2019 grand final as the Sydney Roosters take on the Canberra Raiders at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Last year's grand final was one for the ages as the Roosters were able to go back to back despite being under some huge pressure from the Raiders, who will feel that they have a point to prove after missing a number of chances in that match. If the Raiders are to seek revenge then it will take a monumental effort as they look to shake off a rough patch of form after a loss to the Storm and their failure to notch back to back wins since round 2 & 3 this year. On the other hand the Roosters have been in devastating form since the break in dropping only one game, also to the Storm, and are fresh off a 7 day turnaround from a 42-16 win against the Cowboys, in comparison to the Raiders 5 day turnaround. To make matters worse for the Raiders is the fact that they will be without one of their leading creative players in hooker Josh Hodgson who is out for the year with an ACL injury as well as the injured Bailey Simonsson. In Hodgson’s place comes Sivilia Havili with Tom Starling taking Havili’s place on the bench whilst Simonsson is replaced by Jordan Rapana on the wing with Curtis Scott taking his bench spot. For the Roosters energetic winger Brett Morris returns from a calf injury as Ryan Hall drops out and last week's 5 try hero Matt Ikuvalu retains his spot on the other wing and club captain Boyd Cordner returns in the back row as Mitch Aubusson reverts back to the bench. As we mentioned previously the Roosters won their last meeting in the grand final but this run of form extends to 3 consecutive wins against the Raiders, all coming last year, although the Raiders did win the 3 meetings before that. Where it does get interesting is the margin of points that each team has won by during this period. In the last 6 meetings the largest winning margin has been 8 points, which was to the Raiders, and the average winning margin has been 3.5 points. This paints the picture of what is traditionally a close fixture between the two sides and with the market currently providing Raiders with a hefty start for this week then we’re happy to take the Raiders with the start in what should be another close game.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders +10.5 Line $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.08) vs Gold Coast Titans ($8.00)
Friday, 17th July 6:00pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
The second game of the round sees the Melbourne Storm take a home game to the Sunshine Coast Stadium to take on the Gold Coast Titans with both teams coming off important wins. Last week the Storm were able to put their hoodoo against the Raiders to bed as they stopped a 3 game losing streak against them to triumph 20-14 in a win that will be largely important to their top 4 aspirations. For the Titans they were able to come from 12-0 down against the Warriors to score a 16-12 win as they separated themselves from the bottom of the table by 4 points. This week sees both teams welcome back a couple of important players too. For the Storm representative five eight Cameron Munster returns in the halves in place of Ryley Jacks, origin back rower Felise Kaufusi returns as Tino Faasuamaleaui moves to the bench, Brandon Smith will start at prop for the injured Jesse Bromwich and Chris Lewis & Marion Seve join the bench. For the Titans both Brian Kelly and Phillip Sami return in the centres as Beau Fermor moves to the back row and Bryce Cartwright & Sam Stone drop out of the side. In recent history the Storm have dominated this contest in winning their last 4 meetings by an average of 13 points each time and we are expecting a similar result come Friday. One market that did intrigue us was the total points market. With 3 of the last 4 games between these sides going under this week's total points market then we are leaning towards the unders in this one. Add to the fact that the Storm are coming off a shorter turnaround than the Titans, the Titans made a whopping 20 errors last week and both teams' defence survived a fair bit of pressure last week then we are happy to play the unders.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 45.5 Points $1.88
Wests Tigers ($1.50) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.60)
Friday, 17th July 7:55pm, Leichhardt Oval
Two clubs under a fair bit of pressure in the Wests Tigers and the Brisbane Broncos clash at Leichhardt Oval for Friday’s second game. For the Tigers they have continued to be their own worst enemy as their defensive efforts have been poor and they failed to capitalise on their opportunities last week in a 18-10 loss to the Rabbitohs. This loss saw their top 8 credentials seriously questioned and they will be hoping for a big response against a Broncos side who has managed just one win since the competition resumed. Thankfully for the Broncos this win came last week in the form of a 26-8 victory over the bottom of the table Bulldogs in what was a much improved defensive effort, where they missed only 12 tackles. This week looks to be a much tougher prospect for Anthony Seibold’s men as they come up against a side who they share two wins a piece in their last four meetings, including a heartbreaking last minute loss to them last year. To make matters worse for the Broncos is the fact that they have lost captain Alex Glenn to injury as Ben Teo comes into the starting side, with Joe Ofahengaue returning from suspension on the bench. For the Tigers their side looks considerably different this week as coach Michael Maguire has swung the selection axe by dropping Luke Brooks to the bench as Benji Marshall takes his place at halfback with youngster Billy Walters taking the suspended Josh Reynolds five eight position. The Tigers have also recalled Russell Packer in the front row, Sam McIntyre & Chris McQueen on the bench and Tommy Talau returns from a hamstring injury on the wing. With both teams proving to be hard to get a read on in recent weeks we are leaning towards the unders market that has served us well in Brisbane’s last two games. With the Broncos attack still struggling, the large number of changes that the Tigers have made as well as their average of just 11 points in attack over the last two weeks and the fact that two of the last three meetings have gone under this week's total then we will look for another low scoring contest between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 36.5 Points $1.88
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.30) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.55)
Saturday, 18th July 3:00pm, WIN Stadium
Only a matter of weeks ago the St. George Illawarra Dragons looked to be under immense pressure with their coach tipped to be sacked after a string of heavy losses. Fast forward a few weeks and they’ve strung together a couple of impressive wins and come up against a Canterbury Bulldogs side who has said goodbye to coach Dean Pay and currently sit bottom of the table. It’s funny how quickly things can change for some clubs and the Bulldogs, after 5 straight losses that includes a 18 point loss to the struggling Broncos, look to begin life without Pay as interim coach Steve Georgallis has the tough task of saving them from the dreaded wooden spoon. On the other hand the Dragons scored a huge 34-4 win against the previously top 8 Manly Sea Eagles, largely thanks to a 93% completion rate, as they sit a mere 2 points outside a top 8 spot. This turnaround has been quite extraordinary and as a result coach Paul McGregor has made just the one change in recalling young winger Jason Saab in the place of Jordan Pereira for this week. For the Bulldogs, Georgallis has announced his arrival by recalling Lachlan Lewis in the halves in place of Brandon Wakeham, moving Nick Meaney to fullback as Dallin Watene-Zelezniak moves to the wing, Kerrod Holland starts in the centres for the suspended Reimis Smith and Jeremy Marshall-King starts at hooker with Sione Kato reverting to the bench. Despite the wholesale changes it looks incredibly hard for the Bulldogs to turn a string of 5 losses where they have averaged under 10 points per game in attack whilst conceding just under 30 points per game in such a short period of time. The interesting point about this fixture is that the last win for the Bulldogs actually came against the Dragons in round 4 by 22 points to 2. This loss for the Dragons appeared to be the turning point for their season as they have won 3 of their 5 matches since and with the current line looking rather tiny after their win last week then we are happy to take that in what looks a completely different Dragons side from their last meeting.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -9.5 $1.85
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.80) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.00)
Saturday, 17th July 5:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
A top eight clash is brought to us with the sixth placed South Sydney Rabbitohs taking on the fifth placed Newcastle Knights at Bankwest Stadium in a huge game for both teams top 8 aspirations. Both teams will be desperate to prove a point as the Knights have failed to string together back-to-back wins since rounds 1 & 2, despite remaining in 5th spot, whilst the Rabbitohs will look to prove their worth against a genuine top 8 team after managing just one win against top 8 teams this year. Thankfully for the Rabbitohs this win came last week against the Tigers as they triumphed 18-10 after leading 18-0 on the back of a Dane Gagai hattrick and an impressive performance from their forwards. On the other hand the Knights will be ruining missed chances as they went down 10-4 to the Eels in a sloppy game where they made 14 errors and missed 30 tackles as they lost their spot in the top 4. Despite this loss the Knights can take pride in the fact that they kept the current ladder leaders to just 10 points and they’ll be confident with a couple of injured players returning this week. Connor Watson, Sione Mata’utai and Mitch Barnett all return on the bench as Tex Hoy & Brodie Jones drop off the bench whilst origin prop Daniel Saifiti, who is out injured, is replaced by his twin brother Jacob. For the Rabbitohs they have had a major backline shuffle as Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham are out, forcing Alex Johnston to fullback, Dane Gagai into the centres and Corey Allan and debutant Jaxson Paulo onto the wings. In recent history the Rabbitohs have dominated this contest, in winning 9 of their last 10 meetings, which would explain their slight favouritism in the current markets but it is important to note that the Knights won their last meeting by 8 points. To add to this is the fact that the Knights are yet to lose two in a row under Adam O’Brien and with the return of a couple key bench players as well as their wins against much tougher opponents then we are leaning towards the outsiders in this one.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights $2.00
Manly Sea Eagles ($3.80) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.27)
Saturday, 17th July 7:35pm, Lottoland
A Sydney grudge match between the injury ravaged Manly Sea Eagles and the high flying Parramatta Eels is brought to us from Lottoland in what could potentially be a one-sided contest. Unfortunately for the Sea Eagles their season has been disrupted by a host of injuries to key players and as a result they have slipped from being a genuine top 4 chance to sitting 10th after 3 straight losses including a 30 point trouncing by the Dragons last week. This week doesn’t get any easier for them too as they take on a Parramatta side who sit atop the table with only one loss all year and on a 3 game winning streak against the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders. During this period the Eels have impressed without star half Mitch Moses and as a result they have kept the same 17 from last week's victory. For the Sea Eagles they have been hit by another injury as forward Morgan Boyle is replaced by Taniela Paseka in the starting forward pack and Corey Waddell joins the bench. To add to the Sea Eagles woes is the fact that the Eels hold 3 wins from their last 4 meetings, including a 3 point victory against a full strength Manly side from round 4 of this year and when you consider this you can see why the Eels are so heavily liked in the current markets. Without the return of any of the Sea Eagles big names it’s hard to see them putting up much of a fight this week and with the Eels winning by over 13 points in 2 of their last 3 victories against the men from Manly then we are leaning towards another dominant win from Parramatta.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels 13+ $2.10
New Zealand Warriors ($2.90) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.42)
Sunday, 18th July 2:00pm, Central Coast Stadium
A return to the 2:00pm time slot for the first time in 2020 sees the New Zealand Warriors come up against the Cronulla Sharks at Central Coast Stadium with both teams coming off losses. For the Warriors they squandered a 12-0 lead against the Titans to go down 16-12 in a frustrating game where they completed better, ran for more metres, made less errors but gave away silly penalties in a loss that cemented them to 13th place on the ladder. On the other hand the Sharks lost their first game in a month as they received a huge reality check from the Panthers in a 56-24 loss that highlighted the frailties of their left edge defence as well as their inability to match it with top 8 teams this year. As a result of these losses both teams have made a couple of changes to this week's sides. For the Warriors they will welcome back five eight Kodi Nikorima from injury as Chanel Harris-Tavita drops out of the side as well as Eliesa Katoa returning in the back row with Jack Murchie being the unlucky man to miss out. For the Sharks Ronaldo Mulitalo returns from a knee injury as he takes Nene Macdonald’s place on the wing, Toby Rudolf starts at lock with Jack Williams dropped and Andrew Fifita is out with a hamstring injury as Scott Sorensen and Connor Tracey join the bench. The last time these two teams met the Sharks ran away 42-16 winners in a win that was their fifth from their last six meetings against the Warriors in what has been a dominant period for the Sharks. With both teams proving inconsistent throughout 2020 it is hard to lean towards anything with confidence but with the Sharks dominant record against the Warriors as well as their recent win against the Titans, the team that the Warriors last lost too then we will lean towards the Sharks in what should be a close game.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.20
Penrith Panthers ($1.15) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($5.50)
Sunday, 18th July, 4:05pm, Panthers Stadium
The final game of the round sees two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of form as the Penrith Panthers take on the North Queensland Cowboys at Panthers Stadium. The Panthers have been one of the most impressive teams of the year so far as they have well and truly announced themselves as premiership contenders after winning their last four matches. Among these four wins have been victories against 3 top 8 sides in the Storm, Rabbitohs and Tigers as well as a 56-24 demolition of the Sharks last week in what has been a clinical period led by their dangerous front row combination of James Tamou & James Fisher-Harris and star halfback Nathan Clearly. On the other end of this spectrum has been the Cowboys whose inconsistency and lack of defensive effort has seen them slip to 12th on the ladder with just 3 wins all year. The frustrating area for Cowboys fans is that they have seen the potential that they can play to with their win against the Knights and even their first half against the Roosters from last week where they trailed 12-6 before going down 42-16. As a result coach Paul Green has dropped Scott Drinkwater this week, replacing him with Mitch Dunn at five eight, Valentine Holmes is out injured for 2 months as Justin O’Neil takes his place on the wing whilst Daejarn Asi debuts on the bench with Peter Hola out. On the other hand the only change that the Panthers have made has been 4 try hero Charlie Staines missing out due to a biosecurity breach as Dean Whare comes into the centres and Brent Naden on the wing. About the only thing that is going the Cowboys way for this fixture is the fact that they won the last two against the Panthers but with that being said the Panthers look far too good in this one and after notching up 56 points against a Sharks side that defeated the Cowboys a few weeks ago then we are confident in the Panthers covering this weeks line.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -14.5 $1.90
