NRL Round 9 Preview
Round 8 in the NRL saw one of the best games in recent memory in a golden point thriller between the Storm & the Roosters, a controversial clash between the Knights & the Sea Eagles and a couple of teams continuing a horrid run of form. Read on as we preview some largely important clashes for teams top 8 aspirations as well as a potential wooden spoon decider in what looks an interesting round.
North Queensland Cowboys ($4.60) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.20)
Thursday, 9th July 7:50pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The first game of the round sees two teams coming off losses, in the North Queensland Cowboys & the Sydney Roosters, meet at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Last week the Roosters played in potentially one of the best games in recent years as they went down 27-25 to the Melbourne Storm in a game that had multiple lead changes. Unfortunately for the Roosters they were on the wrong end of the result at the end and they will be disappointed after leading by 10 points with 10 minutes to go and making a number of uncharacteristic mistakes. Among these were a completion rate of just 64% largely thanks to a huge 18 errors and they will need a much more controlled performance this week if they are to come out victorious. For the Cowboys they followed up their best performance of the season with probably their worst performance of the season as they lost by 38 points to the Eels as they missed 39 tackles, allowed the Eels to run for almost 800m more and struggled to hold onto possession and build pressure. This week they will be hoping for a performance similar to theirs against the Roosters last year where they won by 3 points in what has been a pretty even history between the two sides with 3 wins a piece in their last 6. Both sides have made a couple of changes this week too. For the Cowboys they have recalled Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to fullback in a shock move that has seen Valentine Holmes shifted to the wing whilst Justin O’Neil & Tom Opacic have dropped out with Connelly Lemeulu coming into the centres and Tom Gilbert replacing Reuben Cotter on the bench. For the Roosters they will be without Daniel Tupou & Boyd Cordner due to injury as Ryan Hall comes onto the wing, Mitch Aubusson comes into the back row and Lachlan Lam joins the bench. Despite these injuries it’s hard to see the Roosters losing two in a row, especially with the inconsistent form of the Cowboys and we will lean to the Roosters winning by 13+, a feat that they have done in all 5 of their victories this year.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 13+ $1.95
Gold Coast Titans ($1.91) vs New Zealand Warriors ($1.91)
Friday, 10th July 6:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
A battle between 12th and 15th is brought to us in the first game on Friday with the Gold Coast Titans taking on the New Zealand Warriors as both teams will be desperate for a win in order to separate themselves from the wooden spoon race. The Warriors will be full of confidence coming into this one too after securing a comeback 26-16 win against the Broncos last week thanks to a monster 2 try & 291 metre effort from winger Ken Maumalo. To add to their confidence is their dominant record of 7 wins from their last 8 meetings against the Titans and with the addition of captain Roger Tuivasa-Sheck this week it looks a daunting task for the Titans. If the Titans are to get anything out of this week's game then they will need to sure up a defence that missed 44 tackles & conceded 40 points as well as reducing the 17 errors that they made in a 30 point loss to the Sharks. Due to this the Titans have made a couple of changes with Corey Thompson returning to fullback and Treymain Spry debuting on the wing, Erin Clark comes in for the injured Mitch Rein at hooker, Sam Stone moves into the back row as Beau Fermor takes Tyrone Peachey's spot in the centres, as he moves back to the bench. For the Warriors, Tuivasa-Sheck returns at fullback as Peta Hiku shifts into Gerard Beale’s centre spot, Chanel Harris-Tavita takes the injured Kodi Nikorima’s five-eight spot, whilst Jazz Tevaga returns from injury on the bench. With the Warriors boasting an impressive record against the Titans and their squad seeming to be even stronger than last week’s victory then we are leaning towards them in what should be a tight clash. Until the Titans can settle on a core backline then it’s proving hard to tip them and for that reason we will take the Warriors by 1-12 in this one.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors 1-12 $3.10
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.52) vs Wests Tigers ($2.55)
Friday, 10th July 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
A huge match in terms of both the South Sydney Rabbitohs & the Wests Tigers finals aspirations with both teams currently sitting in 9th & 8th respectively, even on points and separated by only 2 points on points differential. To add to the gravity of this is the fact that Souths will be looking for their second consecutive win whilst the Tigers will be hoping to avoid two straight losses after a frustrating loss to their former coach last week. In this loss the Tigers failed to capitalise on a number of chances with the game at 12-12 with 10 minutes to go and as a result the Panthers ran away with it to win 19-12. On the other hand Souths survived a couple of scares from the Bulldogs to win 26-10 thanks to an impressive 2000 run metres and a solid performance from their two wingers, Dane Gagai & Alex Johnston. This week sees both sides make minimal changes that are the result of either injury or suspension. For Souths Braidon Burns is out with a dislocated knee and will be replaced by Bailey Sironen who takes Burns’ utility spot on the bench. For the Tigers Joey Leilua is suspended after his brain implosion last week and is replaced by Michael Chee-Kam in the centres as Chris Lawrence takes Chee-Kam’s spot on the bench. In recent history this contest has been relatively even with both teams winning 3 each from the last 6, with Tigers winning their last meeting. Looking more closely, both sides only have one win this year against top 8 sides, both being against Cronulla, and with the inconsistency of both sides to put in 80 minute performances this looks to be another tight game. For that reason we were quite surprised at the large difference in the market prices that have been offered and as a result we are quite happy to look at the Tigers with the start in what could be a game that will go either way.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers +5.5 $1.85
Cronulla Sharks ($2.55) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.52)
Saturday, 11th July 3:00pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Saturday's first game looks an interesting clash with the resurgent Cronulla Sharks taking on the high flying and second placed Penrith Panthers at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. Both teams will be brimming with confidence as they sit on 3 game winning streaks and with the last 3 games between these sides being decided by 6 points or less we’re expecting another close one this week. Last week saw the Sharks put 40 points on the Titans in a 30 point victory as they scored 40 points for the second consecutive week and currently average just over 33 points in their last 3 victories. For the Panthers they have grinded out 3 very impressive wins against the Storm, the Rabbitohs and the Tigers as they are averaging just under 13 points conceded during this period. Unfortunately this week sees both sides lose a couple of players who have been massive contributions to their attack in recent weeks. For the Sharks fullback Matt Moylan has gone down with yet another hamstring injury as he is replaced by Josh Dugan at fullback, Bryson Goodwin comes into the centres and Ronaldo Mulitalo returns on the wing. For the Panthers they lose strike winger Brian To’o as Dean Whare comes into the centres and Brent Naden pushes out to the wing. Despite Penrith having won the last meeting between these two sides the Sharks have dominated this contest in recent years in winning 10 of the last 12 meetings. Throughout these meetings there has been a consistent theme of high scoring matches too, with the last 3 going over this week's total points market and for that reason we’re leaning towards another high scoring affair between these two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 40.5 $1.90
Brisbane Broncos ($1.62) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.30)
Saturday, 11th July 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium
A potential battle for the wooden spoon as the Brisbane Broncos, on a 6 game losing streak, take on the Canterbury Bulldogs, who are on a 4 game losing streak. Both teams are under immense pressure coming into this one as both look lost in attack, with the Broncos averaging just over 13 points in comparison to the Bulldogs 10 points per game whilst conceding an average of 29 points and 23 points per game respectively. Last week was no different for both teams as the Broncos blew a 16-12 lead to go down 26-16 in a performance that left a couple of players in tears after the final siren. For the Bulldogs they showed glimpses of their potential throughout their 26-10 loss to Souths but ultimately lost the battle in the middle, missed 30 tackles and made 12 errors. Despite this the only change that the Bulldogs have made has been the injured Adam Elliott being replaced by English international Luke Thompson, who makes his club debut at lock. For the Broncos, coach Anthony Seibold has actually named the same 17 from last week, with a minor shuffle in the forward pack. Corey Oates will start in the back row this week, Tevita Pangai Junior will start at prop, Thomas Flegler moves to the bench and watch out for centre Kotoni Staggs who is named on the extended bench as he looks to return from a hamstring injury. With minimal changes to either side over the last few weeks then it’s hard to see a change in performance for either side, especially in attack. With that in mind as well as the aforementioned average of both sides in attack and the fact that neither side has put up a worthy performance to convince us that they should win then we will be looking at the unders in the total points for this one in what could be a scrappy, low scoring affair.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 38.5 Points $1.86
Canberra Raiders ($1.91) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.91)
Saturday, 11th July 7:35pm, GIO Stadium Canberra
A blockbuster top of the table clash between two teams who are quickly forming quite the rivalry in the Canberra Raiders and the Melbourne Storm is brought to us from GIO Stadium in Canberra on Saturday Night. Over the last season the Raiders are the only team to have a perfect record against the Storm as they have managed 3 consecutive wins against the Storm, with all 3 of these wins coming at the Storms homeground of AAMI Park. This game sees a return to Canberra's home where the Storm have funnily won the last two and the Raiders will be looking for back-to-back wins for the first time since round 2 & 3. Last week’s return to winning form saw the Raiders hold on for a 22-16 win against the Dragons despite being 22-0 up and coach Ricky Stuart will be hoping for an 80 minute performance if they are to win this week. For the Storm they were victorious in arguably one of the best games in recent years in a 27-25 victory against the Roosters in a game that had it all. The Storm looked long odds to win when they were down by 1 with 30 seconds to go but a Ryan Papenhuyzen field goal sent it to extra time where Cameron Smith, playing halfback, slotted a penalty goal to seal the win. This week sees the Raiders cop another blow to their forward stocks with Sia Soliola and Emra Guler both out with injuries as Dunamis Lui comes into the side to start at prop, Kai O’Donnell debuts off the bench and Jordan Rapana takes Curtis Scott’s place on the bench. For the Storm the Cameron Smith halfback experiment appears to be over as Ryley Jacks will start in the halves, with Smith back to hooker and Brandon Smith back to the bench whilst Suliasi Vunivalu is replaced by Marion Seve on the wing due to a hamstring injury. Despite the Storm still missing Cameron Munster the weight of the Raiders injuries in their forward pack and their inconsistency in recent weeks has us leaning towards the Storm in this one. To add a little bit of extra value it’s hard to see the Storm blowing the Raiders out of the park without Munster & Vunivalu and for that reason we will take them 1-12 in what should be a close but narrow win to the Storm.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $3.10
Newcastle Knights ($2.25) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.65)
Sunday, 12th July 4:05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium Newcastle
Sunday’s first game sees the first placed Parramatta Eels travel to McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle to take on the Knights with both teams coming off strong wins. For the Eels they absolutely dominated the Cowboys in a 42-4 win that was largely thanks to 4 tries from Maika Sivo and 3 try assists to Dylan Brown. This win catapulted them into being the best defensive team in the competition with an average of just 11 points per game whilst averaging 25 points per game in attack. On the other hand the Knights secured a 14-12 win against the Sea Eagles in an incredibly strong defensive effort as the Sea Eagles held the majority of possession in the second half. The Knights will also be hoping to avenge a 6 point loss to the Eels from last year in what has been their only loss to the Eels since 2016, as they had won the previous 4. This week sees the Knights make a couple of changes due to injuries as Tex Hoy take the place of Edrick Lee on the wing whilst Sione Mata’utia is replaced by Aidan Guerra in the back row with Star Toa and Brodie Jones taking their place on the bench. For the Eels they get one of their middle enforcers in Nathan Brown back who returns from suspension as Marata Niukore reverts to the bench whilst Stefano Utoikamanu debuts off the bench with Ray Stone and Oregon Kaufusi dropping out. With the Eels coming off a 9 day turnaround in comparison to the Knights 7 day back up, off a much tougher game than the Eels, then we are leaning towards the Eels in this one. Add to the fact that the Eels have strengthened with Brown returning whilst the Knights have a couple of injury concerns then we are happy to take the Eels with the line as they look to extend their lead at the top of the table.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -3.5 Line $1.90
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.12) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($1.73)
Sunday, 12th July 6:30pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The final game of the round sees a clash between two teams who are currently on two game losing streaks in the St. George Illawarra Dragons & the Manly Sea Eagles. During their losing streaks the Dragons have gone down to two top 8 teams in the Roosters & the Raiders and have performed respectfully in both performances. There are still some questions about their attack as they average only 15 points per game this year and they will have to improve massively against a side who own the 6th best defence in the comp so far. Despite owning the 6th best defence the Sea Eagles have slipped to two losses and as a result they find themselves out of the top 8 for the first time in over a month. These losses have been hard to take as they had 40 points put on them by a resurgent Sharks whilst they had plenty of chances to win in last week's two point loss to the Knights, a clash that was marred by another controversial call going against the Sea Eagles. As a result of this call the Sea Eagles will be without star forward Addin Fonua-Blake this week who serves a multiple week suspension as Taniela Paseka starts at prop and Morgan Boyle joins the bench. For the Dragons they have some big names returning with Tariq Sims taking his spot in the back row as Tyrell Fuimaono moving back to the bench & Korbin Sims to the reserves, Ben Hunt will also start at hooker this week with Cameron McInnes shifting to lock and Jordan Pereira takes Jason Saab’s spot on the wing. Despite the Sea Eagles winning last year’s clash, the Dragons had won the previous 4 and with the weight of the outs that Manly have as well as their physically demanding clash last week against the Knights then we are leaning towards the Dragons. To add a little bit more value we can’t see the Dragons blowing Manly off the park so we will go with the Dragons by 1-12 in what should be a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons 1-12 $3.20
