NRL Round 3 Preview
9 weeks ago rugby league fans' 2020 aspirations were ripped away from them as the NRL made the tough but necessary decision to postpone the 2020 season in the wake of the worldwide Covid-19 pandemic. Whilst this pandemic unfolded many options were explored by the governing body, including a split conference style season or even the cancellation of the entire season, but it was to the delight of all that the NRL announced that the season would restart on May 28th in a shortened 20 game season. With the recommencement of the 2020 season after an almost off-season style layoff it poses an interesting question about the state, fitness and chemistry of each team. Read on as we preview the round 3 fixtures and run our finger over which team has benefited the most from the time off.
Brisbane Broncos ($1.90) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.90)
Thursday, 28th May 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Two of the competition's undefeated teams kickoff round 3 as the Parramatta Eels travel up to Brisbane to take on the Broncos in what looks an interesting early season test of both teams premiership credentials. The Eels currently sit atop the premiership ladder thanks to two wins against the Bulldogs and the Titans, the latter being a 40 point victory, whilst the Broncos have crafted out two close wins against the Rabbitohs and the Cowboys, teams who you would consider higher quality than the Eels two opponents. This won’t bother the Eels although as they currently have bragging rights over the Broncos after sending them out of the finals last year in a 58-0 demolition job at Bankwest Stadium and it will be interesting to see how the Broncos bounce back from their biggest ever finals loss. Looking past this loss the shares are evenly spoiled between these two sides, with 2 wins a piece from their last 4 games and neither side being able to put together consecutive wins since 2017. After the extended break both teams have made a couple of changes to their sides from round two. For the Broncos they have lost Andrew McCullough to the Knights, Tevita Pangai-Junior to suspension and David Fifita to a knee injury but welcome back Alex Glenn, Joe Ofahengaue and possibly Matt Lodge as he is named on an extended bench. For the Eels their only change stems from Nathan Brown’s suspension as he is replaced by Marata Niukore whilst hooker Reed Mahoney has completed a 9 week recovery for a foot fracture from round 2 without missing a game. With the Broncos losing considerable firepower in their forward pack and the Eels struggling attack in their first game of the year we are leaning towards the break resulting in a low scoring, scrappy affair between these two sides. To supplement this the last two games at Suncorp have been under this week's total points market and with that we are happy to look at the total points being under here.
Recommended Bet: Total Match Points Under 41.5 Points $1.86
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.32) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.35)
Friday, 29th May 6:00pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The first of two Friday night derby’s as the Gold Coast Titans travel up to Townsville to take on their Queensland counterparts, the North Queensland Cowboys in the 6:00pm timeslot. Both teams have had mixed starts to the season with the Titans currently winless after losing by a combined 58 points to the Eels and the Raiders whilst the Cowboys have notched up the one win against the Bulldogs but lost their first game in their new stadium against the Broncos in round one. With their current winless ratio at their new stadium the Cowboys will be eager to alter that with a win against the Titans and if they do this then it would extend their winning streak to 10 against the men from the glitter strip. For the Titans they will be hoping that the break has given them the time to correct the wrongs in their defence for this game and they will have to do so on the back of a couple changes from their round two side. The Titans have lost Kallum Watkins and AJ Brimson to departure & injury, respectively, meaning that Tyrone Roberts will start at fullback, Tyrone Peachey is into the centres, Jamal Fogarty will debut at halfback and Moeaki Fotuakia, Nathan Peats, Kevin Proctor and Keegan Hipgrave all moving into the starting forward pack. For the Cowboys they have lost two of their more experienced players with Michael Morgan out with a shoulder injury & replaced by Jake Clifford whilst Gavin Cooper misses out with a calf injury and is replaced by Mitchell Dunn, with Shane Wright joining the bench. When we take a closer look at the history of these sides the Cowboys have defeated the Titans by an average of almost 13 points across their last 9 victories and have covered this week's line 6 times in that period of time. With that in mind as well as the mass changes that the Titans have made we are confident in the Cowboys once again prevailing by a significant amount.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys -7.5 $1.85
Sydney Roosters ($1.38) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($3.00)
Friday, 29th May 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
Arguably the matchup of the round with the games oldest rivalry taking centre stage on Friday night as the Sydney Roosters take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a mouth watering match up. Despite the game taking part on unfamiliar territory of Bankwest Stadium the stakes will be just as high for both teams as the Roosters look to post their first win for 2020 whilst the Rabbitohs will be eager to avenge a finals loss to the Roosters from last season. To add to this, two-time Roosters premiership player, Latrell Mitchell, now plays for the Rabbitohs and both teams will be eager to prove who was the winner out of that off-season trade. Looking more closely at this season both teams have had indifferent starts to the year. For the Roosters 2020 hasn’t quite gone to plan so far as they have suffered 6 & 1 point losses to the Panthers & the Sea Eagles whilst the Rabbitohs have narrowly defeated the Sharks but lost to the Broncos in round 2. The Roosters will be hoping that the return of NSW captain Boyd Cordner, the signing of Josh Morris and the extra time to gel recruit Kyle Flanagan into the halves will help turn around their season as they will have to do so without the services of club stalwart Mitchell Aubusson, who is out due to family reasons. On the other hand Souths will be hoping that a break that included drama surrounding Latrell Mitchell, James Roberts & Cody Walker doesn’t affect their onfield performance, with the latter two both likely to miss this clash. It’s hard to see the Roosters losing three in a row, especially with the return of Boyd Cordner, who will provide the onfield leadership that they craved in their two close losses and we are confident they will win but the market also heavily leans that way too. As a result we believe there to be more value in the total match points market. With 4 of the last 5 encounters between these two sides being under this week's total points market as well as both sides featuring new halves combinations we are predicting a low scoring affair that is under this week's total points line.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 38.5 Points $1.86
New Zealand Warriors ($2.35) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.38)
Saturday, 30th May 3:00pm, Central Coast Stadium
Two teams looking to post their first victory in the 2020 season meet to kickstart Saturday’s games as the New Zealand Warriors welcome the St. George Illawarra Dragons to their makeshift home of the Central Coast Stadium. One of the few feel good stories of the current pandemic has been the unselfishness of the coaches and players of the Warriors to relocate to NSW for the remainder of the 2020 season in order to keep the season alive. In doing this the Warriors have won many fans, including myself, and you can bet that they will be everyone's second favourite team throughout the year. Unfortunately for both the Warriors and the Dragons, prior to the season being postponed, they were struggling for form as both teams were winless due to losses to the Knights & Raiders and Tigers & Panthers, respectively. In these losses the Warriors managed to score only one try whilst the Dragons defence leaked a massive 56 points in two games. Hopefully the break has allowed both teams to reset and with the Dragons welcoming back Cameron McInnes, Tariq & Korbin Sims and Mikaele Ravalawa they will be confident in their chances. On the other the Warriors have been decimated by a number of injuries with David Fusitua, Adam Keighran, Chanel Harris-Tavita and Leeson Ah Mau all missing out and Kodi Nikorima, Pita Hiku, Patrick Herbert and Gerard Beale coming into the squad. Despite the Warriors holding a 3 game winning streak over the Dragons it is hard to ignore the number of changes to their side and the concerns over their limited time to train coming into round 3. The Dragons look a much stronger side from their last two games, in which they were a chance to win in both of them, and as a result were leaning towards the Dragons in a reasonably close one.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons 1-12 $2.80
Cronulla Sharks ($1.68) vs Wests Tigers ($2.15)
Saturday, 30th May 5:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
Two teams with convincing finals aspirations in the 9th placed Wests Tigers and the 11th placed Cronulla Sharks meet at Bankwest Stadium in what could prove an important match for both teams in the 2020 season. With both teams tipped to be around the top 8 come the end of the season and with this the only meeting between the two teams the winner of this could hold a significant advantage over the other. For the Sharks this becomes even more important as they have narrowly lost their first two games against Souths and the Storm whilst the Tigers currently sit one win above them after defeating the Dragons and then falling to the Knights. Thankfully for the Sharks their record against the Tigers is superb as the Tigers haven’t defeated them since 2014 and the Sharks will take confidence from this and their 17 point victory over the Tigers at their spiritual home of Leichhardt Oval in their last meeting. To add to the Sharks confidence is the return of Josh Dugan, Briton Nikora & possibly Matt Moylan, who is named on an extended bench. On the other hand the Tigers have made a number of changes with loan signing Harry Grant starting at hooker, Adam Doueihi moving to fullback, Moses Mbye to centre, Thomas Mikaele to prop and Alex Twal to lock, meaning that Corey Thompson & Elijah Taylor drop out of the side. The result of this match could well hinge on the availability of Matt Moylan but with the Sharks boasting a dominant record against the Tigers as well as welcoming back some important players we are inclined to go for the Sharks in a tight match.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.65) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.22)
Saturday, 30th May 7:35pm, AAMI Park
Saturday’s prime time game sees a rematch of 1st and 4th from last year's ladder as the Melbourne Storm look to avenge their two AAMI Park losses to the Canberra Raiders from 2019, including a heartbreaking 2 point finals loss. This loss ultimately led to the Storm bowing out to eventual champions the Roosters and you can bet that it would be on the mind of super coach Craig Bellamy and Cameron Smith. This year both teams have started the season in impressive fashion with the Raiders defeating the Warriors & the Titans, whilst the Storm have defeated the Sea Eagles & the Sharks. On paper, the Storm's victories look significantly more impressive but it was the ease of both of the Raiders' victories that should bring concern to the Storm as the Raiders look to post their 3rd consecutive victory over the Storm at AAMI Park. Standing in the Raiders' way will be an even more improved Storm side from the opening two rounds as Brandon Smith & Christian Welch return from injury in the place of Tui Kamikamica and Tom Eisenhuth. On the other hand the Raiders have named the same 17 from round 2, with John Bateman still recovering from a shoulder injury and Jordan Rapana named on the extended bench as he looks to return from Japanese Rugby. With the Raiders becoming one of the Storms bogey teams this match will have an extra incentive for a goal driven coach like Craig Bellamy and we are confident that with their two inclusions they will be able to get over the Raiders in this one. To get a little bit of extra value the last 3 matches between these sides have been decided by 12 points or less so we are confident the Storm will win within that margin too.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.90
Penrith Panthers ($1.65) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.22)
Sunday, 31st May 4:05pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Two teams who will be without two of their superstars meet at Campbelltown Stadium as the Nathan Cleary-less Panthers take on the Kalyn Ponga-less Knights. Unfortunately for viewers the two aforementioned players are both out due to suspension, which sees a significant blow to the attack of both of these sides. Despite this both teams finals credentials will be tested here as both the Panthers and Knights are yet to lose throughout the opening two rounds. For the Knights their attack has been incredibly impressive as they have put on 62 points in victories over the Warriors and the Tigers whilst the Panthers have knocked off the defending premiers in the Roosters and the Dragons in close but convincing fashion. The Panthers will take further confidence in winning 7 of their last 8 meetings with the Knights, including a 54-10 victory in round 25 of last year. This time round they face a significantly different Knights side as they are led by new coach Adam O’Brien and welcome Tex Hoy into the starting side for his debut, Connor Watson into the hooker role in place of the injured Jayden Brailey and Sione Mata’utia into the back row with Mitch Barnett out due to injury. For the Panthers, Cleary is replaced by 20 year old Matt Burton in the halves, Kurt Capewell returns in the starting pack along with James Fisher-Harris and Zane Tetevano drops to the bench. Despite the market saying otherwise we are leaning towards the Knights in this contest. The reason behind this is based on the experience of both sides' spines. The Knights boast 463 games between them and a premiership and origin winning halfback in Pearce whilst the Panthers have only 135 appearances and Koroisau contributes 109 of them. Without Cleary and Maloney (from last year) and with Koroisau being relatively new to the club the Panthers lack a genuine leader and we are tipping the Knights in an upset.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights $2.22
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.35) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.15)
Sunday, 31st May 6:30pm, Central Coast Stadium
The final game of the round features two teams who have both been led by the great Des Hasler as Hasler’s Manly Sea Eagles take on his former team in the Canterbury Bulldogs at Central Coast Stadium. Hasler has taken both of these sides to grand finals and will be eager to notch his 2nd straight win over his former side after a 18-10 victory in their only meeting last year. The Sea Eagles will take further confidence from their start to the season as they knocked off last year's premiers, the Roosters, in their last match after a first round loss to the Storm. For the Bulldogs they will need to show significant improvement from their first two games as they lost to the Eels and the Cowboys after managing only 18 points through 160 minutes of football, where they had their fair share of chances. Their chances this week won’t be helped by the fact that the Sea Eagles welcome back Corey Waddell & Taniela Paseka in place of Morgan Boyle & Haumole Olakau’atu as well as having a fully fit Jake Tbrojevic and Addin Fonua-Blake at their disposal after offseason surgeries. For the Bulldogs they will also still be without Kieran Foran as Jack Cogger partners Lachlan Lewis in the halves and Joe Stimson is out with a shoulder injury for the season as he is replaced by Dean Britt. With this in mind as well as the Sea Eagles having won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the two sides then we are liking the Sea Eagles to notch another victory against the Bulldogs. In these 3 victories the Sea Eagles have also covered this week's line on all 3 occasions and we think they’ll do just that again this time round.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles -7.5 $1.90
