2019 NRL Grand Final
Sydney Roosters ($1.42) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.90)
Sunday, 6th October 6:30pm, ANZ Stadium
After 6 months of almost non-stop, intense and entertaining rugby league we have finally reached the pinnacle of the NRL, the grand final. Both teams have earned their places in this final through a combination of well structured defence, some jaw dropping attack and through a belief in the quality & depth of their squad. Read on as we take a look at the final game of NRL for 2019 and cast our eyes over who we think will be crowned the 2019 NRL premiers.
2019 NRL Grand Final Line Ups
After more than 26 games for the Sydney Roosters and the Canberra Raiders over the course of the season both teams will be pleased to see that they are at close to, if not at, full strength for the most important game of their seasons. For the Sydney Roosters injury has marred their campaign with a host of big names such as Boyd Cordner, Luke Keary and Jake Friend sitting out for extended periods of time whilst the Raiders have had to rotate a number of their key position players due to a combination of injury and form. This week the Roosters have arguably one of the biggest selection decisions in recent history as they have their club captain and inspirational hooker, Jake Friend, looking to return from over a month on the sidelines with an arm injury. The tough aspect for the Roosters is that his replacement, Sam Verrills, has been one of their standout players in their run to the grand final as he has managed 2 try assists, 2 line break assists and 7 tackle breaks across their last 4 games. Despite this Friend has been named on an extended bench and it remains to be seen whether Verrils is the unlucky man to miss out or if young but promising forward, Nat Butcher, is the one to drop off the bench. Either of these two men would feel hard done by if they were to miss out on the grand final and coach Trent Robinson looks to have one of the biggest selection calls in his career coming up. The only other change for the Sydney Roosters has been the return of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves from a one week suspension as he takes his place in the front row with Lindsay Collins, for the second year running, being the unlucky man to miss out on a spot in the starting 17 for the grand final. On the other hand, Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has kept it simple by naming the same 17 from last weeks victory against the Rabbitohs but will be sweating on the fitness of two stars. These stars are strike centre Joey Leilua, who looks to overcome a lower leg injury from the preliminary final that forced him from the field, and their star hooker Josh Hodgson, who missed training on Tuesday due to a virus and has been quarantined from the team. Despite these concerns the Raiders are confident in the fitness of both of their stars as they look to continue their giant killing spree on the biggest stage of all.
Key Match Ups
James Tedesco vs Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
The battle of arguably the best fullback in the world right now against probably one of the buys of the season could shape the way this contest goes as James Tedesco will be looking to use his experience against the live wire Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. Not many people, if any, would have predicted 12 months ago that Nicoll-Klokstad would be a starting fullback in the NRL grand final in 2019 but it is a credit to his improvement that he is in exactly that position. Across the course of 2019 Nicoll-Klokstad has ranked 1st in kick return metres with 1,697, 4th in run metres with 4,315, 2nd in all runs with 451 and has managed to break 101 tackles as his hard, confident running has been the key to starting the Raiders sets off on the right foot. If the Roosters are to win they will have to nullify his kick returns and this will largely be dependent on both their kick chases and the form of Tedesco whilst at the back too. Tedesco has had arguably one of the best individual seasons in recent history as he has ranked 1st in line breaks with 23, 1st in tackle breaks with 161, 2nd in run metres with 4,729 and 2nd in kick return metres with 1,520. For the Raiders to win they will need to watch out for the danger of Tedesco popping up around the ruck in broken play and ensure that he is closed down as soon as he gets the ball as without doing this he has the capabilities to break a game open at any given second and possibly end the Raiders premiership hopes.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves vs Josh Papalii
The return of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves from a one game suspension is a timely one as he is coming up against arguably the most influential forward in the game from 2019 in Josh Papalii and they will need every bit of his aggression to control the middle of the park. 2019 has without a doubt been one of Papalii’s best seasons as he has bounced back from some off field issues to sit 10th in the league for all run metres with 3,665 and 6th in the league for post-contact metres with 1,315. To add to this has been his ability to break a game open, which he showed with his individual effort to score a 73rd minute try in the preliminary final against the Rabbitohs when they had only 12 men on the field. This ability to terrorise the middle third of the field will be something discussed at large by the Roosters this week and they will be hoping that Waerea-Hargreaves can produce a similar performance to that of the qualifying final against the Rabbitohs. In this game he managed 167 metres and 50 post-contact metres in just a 41 minute stint as he completely swung the momentum in the Roosters direction from the start of the match. If Waerea-Hargreaves is able to do this in the early stages on Sunday then it will go a long way towards them winning the match and it will be interesting to view the opening quarter for this reason.
Latrell Mitchel vs Joey Leilua
One of the most interesting aspects to Sunday’s grand final is the strength of the Roosters left side against the Raiders right side. How the game plays out will depend largely on the battle that occurs on this side of the park and you can expect that right at the heart of it will be too fiery and competitive characters in Latrell Mitchell & Joey Leilua. Both centres are known for the entertaining brand of footy and their ability to break open a game at any stage and their clash on Sunday will be pivotal to getting their side on the front foot. For the Roosters they will be hoping that Mitchell can emulate his performance from last years grand final where he completely nullified former Australian centre Will Chambers and scored a powerful try of his own in what was a match turning performance. Mitchell has shown his ability in big games already this year and he has been in impeccable form with his 19 tries, 10 try assists and 14 line breaks across 2019. For the Raiders they will be hoping that the brute strength and toughness of Joey Leilua will help him stop Mitchell as he looks to cap off an injury interrupted campaign. Despite Leilua only featuring in 11 games for the season he still has 4 tries, 2 try assists, 5 line breaks and has averaged 99m per game. These metres will prove valuable to the Raiders and they will need him firing to stop Mitchell in the biggest game of his 203 game career.
Recent History
No matter the result come Sunday evening there will be a major hoodoo broken with whoever comes out victorious in the 2019 decider. For the Sydney Roosters they will be looking to break a 26 year hoodoo centred around the fact that no team has been able to win back-to-back premierships during this time period. For the Canberra Raiders they will be playing in their first grand final since 1994, a 25 year hoodoo that has them on one of the longest premiership droughts in the NRL. Both teams will use this as motivation and to add extra spice to the fixture is the fact that the Roosters have already downed the Raiders twice already this season, albeit in close fashion both times. Over the course of their two games the Roosters have won them by 6 and 4 points after holding off late comebacks from a spirited Canberra Raiders side but the close nature of both of their games points towards another nail biting thriller this weekend. To add to the likely close nature of this game has been the impressive defence of both sides over the finals periods. The Raiders have managed to concede just 10 points to both the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Melbourne Storm, the competitions 5th and 1st ranked attacking teams respectively, in what should be a huge confidence booster as they come up against the 2nd attacking ranked team in the Roosters. Not to outdo the Raiders has been the Roosters effort over their last two weeks. In their last two outings the Roosters have kept their opposition scoreless coming into halftime and have conceded only 12 points in total against the same two teams that the Raiders have played. To add to the Roosters confidence is the fact that they have won 2 of their last 3 against the Raiders at ANZ Stadium and with all this in mind it looks like we are in for another mouthwatering clash between the two sides.
First Try Scorer
In the two games that these two teams have played this year the first try has been scored by the Roosters on both occasions. This ability of the Roosters to jump out of the blocks has become a clear pattern throughout 2019 as they have scored the first try in their last 3 matches and with the fact that they have managed to keep their last two teams to 0 in the first half then we are confident that it will be a Roosters player crossing the try line first come Sunday. The player that we are most interested in is Latrell Mitchell. The reason for this is that he has already scored 3 tries against the Raiders in 2019 alone and has shown his big game prowess from his performance in last years grand final. With the outstanding form of Luke Keary on his inside then we are tipping the Roosters to test out the defence of Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana, especially with Leilua under an injury cloud after last weeks match against the Rabbitohs.
Recommended Bet: Latrell Mitchell $9
Best Bet
With the Roosters being installed as heavy favourites in the head to head market for this weeks game our interest is looking towards the handicap market that has been set. Over the course of 2019 the Raiders have averaged the second lowest losing margin of 5.6 points and when you consider that they have only lost by a combined 10 points to the Roosters in their 2 games from this year already then we are interested in the Raiders handicap for this weeks game as we are expecting another close encounter between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders +6.5 Line $1.91
