NRL Finals Week One
After 25 rounds and 6 months of weekly rugby league we have found the best 8 teams for 2019. This week these 8 teams will battle it out for their quest towards the ultimate glory of being crowned the 2019 premiers. Read on as we preview some cracking local derby’s and look at the value picks in each game.
Sydney Roosters ($1.31) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($3.50)
Friday, 13th September 7:50pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
If the anticipation and hype leading into last weeks game between these two sides wasn’t big enough then you can bet that this week will be at least double with the chance for a spot in the preliminary finals on the line. Last week’s match was an absolute cracker too and it showed the requirement of being able to play for 80 minutes at this level as the Roosters looked absolutely unstoppable in the first half and led 10-2 at halftime, only to be run down after 14 unanswered points by the Rabbitohs led to a 16-10 win. This win was the second for the Rabbitohs over the Roosters this year and it will give the Roosters an extra incentive to avenge these losses in the highest staked meeting between these two sides since last years preliminary final victory to the Roosters. To help the Roosters cause is the return of a number big name players to their starting side. These players include last years Clive Churchill Medallist in Luke Keary returning in the halves, Brett Morris returning on the wing in place of Billy Smith and forwards Mitchell Aubusson and Siosiua Taukeihao returning from injuries to the starting side. On the other hand the Rabbitohs have some mixed news with their named team as Sam Burgess is out due to suspension and Dane Gagai misses the game with a hamstring injury. Thankfully for Rabbitohs fans James Roberts has returned in the centres from a suspension to take Gagai’s place, Tom Burgess is back from a knee injury, Dean Britt joins the bench and George Burgess has been named on an extended bench as he looks to return from a 9 week suspension. These wholesale changes pose a concern for the Rabbitohs but it is something they have dealt with all year and you can bet that coach Wayne Bennett will have them raring to go. Interestingly, and despite the Rabbitohs already holding 2 wins against the Roosters, the market currently has the Roosters as heavy favourites leading into this weeks game and have set a hefty line for them to cover. With 5 of the last 6 clashes between these two sides being decided by 10 points or less and the Rabbitohs already holding a morale advantage over the Roosters we are thinking they have enough about them to cover this weeks line in what should be another close encounter.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs +8 $1,90
Melbourne Storm ($1.40) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.95)
Saturday, 14th September 5:40pm, AAMI Park
The second of the preliminary finals sees the record breaking Melbourne Storm welcome the 4th placed Canberra Raiders down to AAMI Park with revenge fresh on their minds. This revenge stems from the Raiders shock 22-18 victory over the Storm at AAMI Park in round 22, a match where the Raiders came from 18-0 down and the last time that the Storm suffered a loss. It’s not too often that a team beats the Storm two times in a row as their coach Craig Bellamy is the best in the game at tailoring game plans on the back of losses and this has been evident with no team beating them twice this year. To make matters more complicated for the Raiders is their shock 24-20 loss to the Warriors from last week, which was a match where they led by 12 with 12 minutes to go and failed to close out the game. This failure is a growing concern for the Raiders as they have managed to win only 5 of their 13 games that have been decided by 6 points or less and with the added pressure of finals it remains to be seen how they will react. Hopefully for the Raiders the inclusions of Charnze Nicoll-Clokstad, John Bateman, Jordan Rapana, Iosia Soliola, Joey Leilua and Joseph Tapine can steady up a defence that is ranked 3rd across the 2019 season. For the Storm they also have a number of big names back on deck with Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr and Brandon Smith returning from being rested as Brodie Croft, Sandor Earl and Harry Grant drop out of the squad. These inclusions for both teams should make the contest an absolute nail biter but it is important to note that the Raiders haven’t earned consecutive victories against the Storm since the 2012/2013 seasons and with their unimpressive record of 3 wins out of 7 games after a loss from this year it is hard to predict them winning against the Storm down in Melbourne. With this in mind we are leading towards a Storm victory in relatively close fashion.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.75
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.50) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.53)
Saturday, 14th September 7:50pm, Lottoland
A battle of the Sydney beaches is brought to us in the prime time game on Saturday as north meets south with the Cronulla Sharks travelling up to Lottoland to take on the Manly Sea Eagles with the loser set to be on Mad Monday. Both teams will be eager for this not to be the case for them and when looking at the game it poses an interesting viewing with the inconsistent form of the Sharks, the injuries for the Sea Eagles and the history between the two sides. The Sharks have been one of the most up and down sides for 2019, who, when they are on, are close to unstoppable but their best has been too irregular to get a read on. Thankfully for Sharks fans they looked a different side last week as they knocked off the in form Wests Tigers by 25 points to 8 thanks to a 2 try effort from winger Sosaia Feki. This sealed their spot in the finals and they will be keen to take on a Sea Eagles side who went down 32-16 to the Parramatta Eels as they were severely outmuscled in the middle of the park. Unfortunately for the Sea Eagles their middle issues don’t look to be getting any better as they lose one of their best forwards for 2019 in Martin Taupau who is out with a suspension from last weeks game. This has led to second gamer Sean Keppie moving into the starting front row, Corey Waddell into the starting side, Jack Gosiewski returns in the back row and Tony Williams, who hasn’t played NRL since round 8 of last year, has been named on the extended bench. For the Sharks winger Ronaldo Mulitalo is out with suspension and is replaced by Aaron Gray, Aaron Woods moves into the starting side in place of Andrew Fifita and Matt Moylan is named on an extended bench as he looks to return from a niggling hamstring injury. The severely depleted Sea Eagles will have the Sharks licking their lips but they will have to be wary as their record against the Sea Eagles is by far their worst of any team in the NRL. Of the last 11 matches between the two sides the Sharks have managed just one win and of greater concern is the fact that they have won at Lottoland since 2008. Despite this record it is hard to see the Sea Eagles getting up for this one and with the swan song season of Paul Gallen playing on the Sharks mind we are tipping them to earn their first away win in over a decade against the Sea Eagles.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.10
Parramatta Eels ($1.52) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.55)
Sunday, 15th September 4:05pm, Bankwest Stadium
The final game of week 1 of the finals sees the Brisbane Broncos travel down to Bankwest Stadium to take on the Parramatta Eels and if their round 24 clash is anything to go by then we could be in for a thrilling finish to week 1 of the finals. This clash was a golden point thriller that the Broncos edged 17-16 thanks to a Jamayne Isaako field goal after the Eels came from 16-6 down and the Eels will be desperate to avenge this loss on their home turf. The fact that this fixture is played on the Eels home ground could be a telling point to this fixture too as the Eels showed last week their home ground dominance by trouncing the 6th placed Manly Sea Eagles 32-16 to halt a 2 game losing streak. On the other hand the Broncos showed their frailties in Sydney as they lost 30-14 to the 12th placed Canterbury Bulldogs in an error riddled performance. Despite this concerning loss coach Anthony Seibold has kept faith with a large number of his players with the only changes being the return of origin forward Joe Ofahengaue in place of Rhys Kennedy and Gehamat Shibasaki coming in for Izaia Perese on the bench. For the Eels they will be without the services of forward Kane Evans as he is out with suspension but they will welcome back Nathan Brown from a 2 game suspension and you can expect Daniel Alvaro to start in Evans place. In recent history with 3 wins a piece from their last 6 games but it is important to note that the Broncos haven’t beaten the Eels in Sydney in over 3 years. To add to this the Eels have one of the most impressive home records in 2019 as they have won 9 of a possible 12 home games and with the Broncos 5 wins from 12 away games we are confident the Eels can end the Broncos season come Sunday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -5.5 Line $1.90
