NRL Round 19 Preview
The resurgence of a number of Sydney teams towards the top four continued as the race for the finals begins to heat up with only 7 rounds left in the season. Read on as we preview round 19 and a number of crucial of games that stand to shape the make up of the top 8.
Cronulla Sharks ($1.50) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($2.55)
Thursday, 25th July 7:50pm, PointsBet Stadium
The first game of the round sees two teams tipped to make the top 8 before the season started come together in a season defining clash as both teams are currently languishing outside the 8 and face an uphill battle if they want to feature in September in 2019. These two teams are the Cronulla Sharks, who are currently on a gut wrenching 5 game losing streak as they have dropped to 11th spot, and the North Queensland Cowboys who are in the midst of an injury crisis as they sit in 13th spot on the ladder, level on points with the Sharks. Both teams will be disappointed with their season so far and will be hoping that a win on Thursday night can reignite their finals hopes as they only sit a mere 2 points away from the 8th placed Newcastle despite their horrid run of form. The last time these two teams met was back in round 3 when the Sharks absolutely trounced the Cowboys up in Townsville by 42 points to 16 on the back of a commanding 2 try performance from halfback Chad Townsend. The Cowboys will be eager to avenge this loss but will have to do so without captain Michael Morgan who is still out with concussion as Paul Green has named the same side that led the 2nd placed South Sydney Rabbitohs until the final 10 minutes, where they conceded 3 late tries. For the Sharks injury has struck again as Matt Moylan is out, leaving Josh Dugan to fill in at fullback as Josh Morris comes back into the side at centre and Andrew Fifita is out with suspension and is replaced by Braden Hamlin-Uele in the front row. In recent history, the stats don’t read well for the Cowboys who haven't beaten the Sharks at PointsBet Stadium since 2014 but the recent form of both team makes it hard to split the two of them with neither side being able to close out games that they should have won. Despite this the Cowboys last 3 wins have actually come away from home and we feel that the current market has them a little bit over the odds so we are happy to take them with the handicap start.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys +5.5 $1.85
Newcastle Knights ($1.50) vs Wests Tigers ($2.55)
Friday, 26th July 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Only 2 points separates these two sides on the table and both teams will be hoping that with a win in Friday’s 6pm clash that they can strengthen their chances of making the top 8. For the Knights a win will see them hold off the challenges from a number of teams who are vying for their 8th spot on the ladder and to do so coach Nathan Brown has stuck with the same 17 players despite a big loss to the Sydney Roosters that has seen them slip to their 3rd consecutive loss. Likewise, their opponents the Wests Tigers are also on a 3 game losing streak as they have fallen to three teams who currently sit within the top 8 in the Raiders, the Eels and the Roosters and as a result Michael Maguire has made a number of changes in a bid to stop their concerning slide down the table. These changes include Corey Thompson returning at full back as Moses Mbye goes to centre, whilst Michael Chee Kam moves to the back row, Ryan Matterson moves to Lock and Alex Twal is dropped to the bench in place of Oliver Clark. In recent history the Tigers have a slight advantage over the Knights in winning 3 of the last 4 including the last 2 at McDonald Jones Stadium but this years Knights are a much different team to that of the past. The interesting find has been that in the last 3 matches between these two sides they have cleared the totals points line for this game by an average of just under 4 points per game and with both sides showing defensive frailties in recent weeks we are tipping them to cover the total points line for a fourth consecutive time.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 39.5 Points $1.86
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.37) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($3.05)
Friday, 26th July 7:55pm, ANZ Stadium
Pressure is beginning to mount on the St. George Illawarra Dragons as their season is starting to slip away from them with a 3rd consecutive loss that has seen them win only 2 of their last 10 games. Luckily for the Dragons they welcome back inspirational captain Gareth Widdop as they look to shock the current second placed South Sydney Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium on Friday night. With the return of Gareth Widdop coach Paul McGregor has been forced into a number of changes across the park. Corey Norman moves to fullback to make way for Widdop as Matt Dufty moves to the bench and Ben Hunt returns from being rested. McGregor has also dropped both wingers, Jonus Pearson and Mikaele Ravalawa, in place of an 18 year old debutant in Jason Saab and Zac Lomax who returns from a thumb injury. For the Rabbitohs coach Wayne Bennett has named the same 17 who managed to get out of jail against the Cowboys last week thanks to 3 tries in the last 10 minutes as his side look to build on 2 consecutive wins leading into the finals. Souths fans will also be sweating on the fitness of both Sam and Tom Burgess who have been named on the extended bench as they look to return from their respective shoulder and ankle injuries. In recent history the Rabbitohs have dominated this contest in winning 5 of the last 6 matches including the last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium as the Dragons haven’t beaten the Rabbitohs there since 2013. This stat is a telling one and despite the Dragons getting both Hunt and Widdop back it is important to note that is only the fourth time this spine has played together and the first time with Norman at fullback and Widdop at five eight. With that in mind we are confident that Souths can secure a win, albeit in much closer fashion than expected.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12 $2.90
Parramatta Eels ($1.56) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.40)
Saturday, 27th July 3:00pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first game of Saturday sees the ninth placed New Zealand Warriors travel to Bankwest Stadium to take on the 6th placed Parramatta Eels with only 3 points separating either side on the current ladder. The Eels will be disappointed in their last match loss to the Sea Eagles as their away record slipped to a dismal 3-6 for 2019 but they will be thankful to return to their new and improved home ground where they boast a 6-2 record in home matches this year. The Warriors on the other hand were able to scrape past the Sharks thanks to a 75th minute field goal from Blake Green in a match where they showed plenty of spirit to come from 18-10 down with 20 minutes to go. Warriors coach Stephen Kearney will be hoping that his team can pick up from where they left off and will be boosted by the return of their leading try scorer Ken Maumalo on the wing as well as Gerard Beale on the other wing whilst Blake Ayshford comes into the centres and it will be important to watch the fitness of halfback Kodi Nikorima who is battling an ankle injury. For the Eels Waqa Blake will make his club debut in the centres as Josh Hoffman moves to the wing and Blake Ferguson is still out with a knee infection. Marata Niukore takes Shaun Lanes place who is injured whilst Daniel Alvaro and Oregon Kaufusi come onto the bench. In recent history these two teams have traded wins with 2 wins a piece in the last 4 matches but it is hard to look past the Eels and their home record, which currently sits at equal second best in the league, as well as the Warriors shaky 3-4 record away from record and we are tipping the Eels to secure an important win for their top 4 aspirations.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels 1-12 $3.10
Gold Coast Titans ($2.75) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.44)
Saturday, 27th July 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium
A Queensland derby with plenty at stake is brought to us in the 5:30pm time slot as the Brisbane Broncos travel to Cbus Super Stadium to take on the Gold Coast Titans as they look to continue their surge towards an unlikely finals berth. Broncos won’t just have a finals berth on their mind in this clash too as they will be eager to avenge their shock 26-18 loss to the Titans at home in round 13 as they were outclassed thanks to a 235 metre effort from Jarrod Wallace and a 2 try game from Brian Kelly. Thankfully for Brisbane they have had 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 games and coach Anthony Seibold has recalled the cavalry with Matt Gillett and David Fifita returning to the back row as Tevita Pangai moves to lock in place of the suspended Thomas Flegler and Alex Glenn shifts to centre in a move to improve their defence. For the Titans they have welcomed a host of big names into their team and none bigger than England international Kallum Watkins who plays his first game for the club in the centres as well as the return of Michael Gordon at fullback as AJ Brimson moves to halfback and Tyrone Peachey comes onto the bench in the utility role. Recently the Titans have had the better of the Broncos by winning 2 of their last 3 matches but it is interesting to note that both of these wins have come at Suncorp Stadium and the Titans haven’t beaten the Broncos at Cbus Super Stadium since 2014. The Broncos have also looked much more impressive in recent weeks as the Titans have slumped to 4 consecutive losses and when the Broncos have beaten the Titans in their last 4 games it has been by an average of over 25 points and we are confident they will cover the line with a dominant victory against the Titans.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos -6.5 Line $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.32) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($3.30)
Saturday, 27th July 7:35pm, AAMI Park
One of two incredibly huge games in round 19 that will have major ramifications on the make up of the top four is the prime time game on Saturday as the underrated Manly Sea Eagles travel down to Melbourne to take on the top of the table Storm in a blockbuster clash. Both teams are flying high at the moment as the Sea Eagles sit 2 points outside of the top four after a dominant 36-24 victory against the 6th placed Eels whilst the Storm extended their winning streak to 10 consecutive wins after defeating the Titans despite missing almost all of their origin stars. This week poses arguably their biggest test since their clash with the Roosters and coach Craig Bellamy has recognised this by recalling Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr, Will Chambers, Christian Welch and Felise Kaufusi to the side whilst replacing the suspended Suliasi Vunivalu with Sandor Earl on the wing. For the Sea Eagles Des Hasler has kept faith in the same 17 after his side trounced an Eels side that were on a 3 game winning streak coming into the game. To add to the spectacle of this contest is the history between the two sides, which dates back to the grand finals of the late 2000s, and you can bet that both teams will be fired up after they shared the spoils with one game a piece in 2018. It is hard to see any team beating Melbourne with the way they’re playing at the moment but we feel that the Sea Eagles are a lot closer than what the current line suggests and we are happy to take them with the handicap start.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles +8.5 Line $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($6.00) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.13)
Sunday, 28th July 2:00pm, ANZ Stadium
The penultimate game of the round sees the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the defending premiers the Sydney Roosters in what looks to be another valuable addition to a rich history of fiery contests between these two clubs. The Roosters looked to have got their mojo back last week with their 48-10 demolition of the 8th placed Newcastle Knights and they will be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a Bulldogs side that is averaging 23 points conceded per game and sit 15th on the table. For the Bulldogs, coach Dean Pay will be hoping that his side can improve on the 56 missed tackles they had in their 28-6 loss against the Broncos last week and he has brought back Lachlan Lewis from an ankle injury in place of Brandon Wakeham whilst Kerrod Holland replaces the injured Marcelo Montoya and Aiden Tolman makes his return from injury. The Bulldogs will also be sweating on the fitness of Kieran Foran who has been named on the extended bench but they will have their work cut out with the Roosters recalling Joseph Manu to the centres after he was rested, Zane Tetevano returns from suspension and Victor Radley moves to hooker in place of the injured Jake Friend. The last time these two teams met was merely over a month ago and the Roosters will be hoping for a similar performance as they ran away 38-12 victors on the back of a 2 try and 299 metre effort from makeshift fullback Joseph Manu. The fact that arguably the worlds best fullback in James Tedesco will be at the back this time round and that the Bulldogs haven’t beaten the Roosters in their last 5 attempts leads me to think that they are in line for another dominant win.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 13+ $1.60
Penrith Panthers ($1.90) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.90)
Sunday, 28th July 4:05pm, Panthers Stadium
The second of the two humongous games that I mentioned earlier closes out the round as the 4th placed Canberra Raiders travel to Panthers Stadium to take on the 7th placed Penrith Panthers. This may not appear as one of the hottest games of the round but the fact that the Panthers have come from 16th to 7th on the back of a 7 game winning streak shows that they are a genuine threat to steal Canberra’s 4th spot as they sit only 2 wins behind them. The Raiders will however be confident in their own ability as they have won their last 2 games convincingly and also boast a 30-12 victory over the Panthers from round 8 of this year. As a result of this Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 from last weeks 20-12 victory against the Tigers as he looks to solidify their spot within the four with a number of clubs chasing them down. For the Panthers the only change will be the forced exclusion of Viliame Kikau due to his 2 game suspension for a shoulder charge and he is expected to be replaced by Jed Cartwright. Despite the Raiders winning the last contest between these two teams the Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 and also haven’t lost to the Raiders at Panthers Stadium since 2015. With this in mind and the Panthers improved attack that has seen them average 25.5 points per game across their last four matches we are leaning towards a Panthers victory in a huge game to finish off the round.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $3.10
