NRL Round 18 Preview
Round 17 saw a number of milestones with Cameron Smith celebrating 400 games whilst Gavin Cooper and Benji Marshall both celebrated 300 games in a round that saw a couple of upsets as well as the first send off in 3 years. Read on as we preview round 18 and cast our eye into the chances of each team.
Brisbane Broncos ($1.38) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.05)
Thursday, 18th July 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
The Brisbane Broncos featured in the first drawn game in the NRL since 2016 when they drew 18 all with the New Zealand Warriors last week as both teams struggled to land a number of field goal attempts in regular time and golden point. This week the Broncos welcome the Canterbury Bulldogs up to Suncorp Stadium for the first game of the round and they will have to be at their best to take on a rejuvenated Bulldogs side who have climbed off the bottom of the ladder thanks to 2 consecutive wins. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs side two of their stronger forwards in Aiden Tolman and Sausao Sue will miss this clash with injury as Ofahiki Ogden and Danny Fualolo come into the starting side for them. For the Broncos they have recalled Corey Oates after he was rested due to state of origin but they will still be without veteran forward Matt Gillett who is still injured. In recent history Brisbane have the slight edge over the Bulldogs in winning 3 of the last 5 but the telling statistic is the fact that the Bulldogs haven’t beaten the Broncos in Brisbane since 2015. With this in mind and the fact that the Broncos season is almost do or at die then we are leaning towards Broncos getting the win in a tight game.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2.60
New Zealand Warriors ($2.05) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.77)
Friday, 19th July 6:00pm, Westpac Stadium
The first game for Friday is arguably one of the more important games of the round for teams finals aspirations as the New Zealand Warriors are coming off a disappointing draw where they blew a 16-6 lead and they know find themselves 3 points outside of the top 8 whilst the Cronulla Sharks are currently on a four game losing streak and have dropped out of the top 8 for the first time in over 2 months. The Sharks will be especially disappointed as 3 of these 4 losses they should have won whilst their last match they were simply outclassed 40-16 by the Melbourne Storm who were eager to play for Cameron Smiths 400th game. Unfortunately for the Sharks their problems don’t get any better as Josh Dugan is out with a hamstring injury and is replaced by Matt Moylan at fullback, Josh Morris is out with a broken nose as Kurt Capewell shifts to the centres and Jason Bukuya is out as Matt Prior moves to the bench and Paul Gallen returns to the starting pack. On the other hand Warriors coach Stephen Kearney has named an unchanged side from last weeks draw and he will be hoping that his players can end a 4 game losing streak dating back to 2015 against the Sharks. To make matters worse is that the last time the Warriors beat the Sharks at home was in 2014 and the Sharks will be eager to continue this form and we are confident that they can return to winning ways.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks -1.5 Line $1.90
Penrith Panthers ($1.66) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.22)
Friday, 19th July 7:55pm, Panthers Stadium
Friday’s prime time game sees the St. George Illawarra Dragons travel out to Panthers Stadium to take on the Penrith Panthers in a do or die match for the Dragons finals hopes. The Dragons have slumped to 14th on the ladder and now sit 2 wins outside the 8 as they missed a whopping 54 tackles against the Raiders in a 36-14 loss, despite having an extra player than the Raiders for the last 19 minutes of the match. This loss doesn’t bode well for them this week as they are coming up against one of the form teams of the competition in the Penrith Panthers who are currently on a 6 game winning streak and find themselves inside the 8 for the first time in over 3 months. To make matters worse for the Dragons has been the Panthers recalling NSW Blues halfback Nathan Cleary as he returns from injury as well as the resting of their own star halfback Ben Hunt who has earned a much needed break after a busy state of origin period. Thankfully for Dragons fans they can take some comfort in English international James Graham returning for his first game from injury as well as Patrick Kaufusi and Josh Kerr coming onto the bench as they look to bolster a team that has conceded an average of 25 points a game over their last 4 games. The Panthers will be licking their lips over this stat as they have been averaging over 20 points a game in their last 4 games and with the fact they beat the Dragons 28-2 in their last match we are confident they can repeat this effort and continue their march up the table.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.65
Sydney Roosters ($1.35) vs Newcastle Knights ($3.20)
Saturday, 20th July 3:00pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Fourth versus seventh in Saturdays first game as the Sydney Roosters welcome the Newcastle Knights with both teams in the midst of a horrid run of form. This run of form is highlighted by the defending premiers only being able to manage 2 wins from their last 7 matches as they have fallen down the ladder whilst the Knights have lost their last 2 games in matches that they both led in. Despite this both teams will be eager to turn their form around with finals only a matter of weeks away and it makes this game all the more interesting. To add to this is the fact that last time these two teams met the Knights ran out 38-12 winners on the back of an 18 point effort from star fullback Kalyn Ponga and you can bet that the Roosters wont want a repeat of this game. This week also sees the return of Kalyn Ponga from injury as he looks to spark a Newcastle side that has only managed 34 points across their last two games, 4 points down from their season average of 21 points a game. The Roosters will be hoping that some key inclusions of their own can help stop this as James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner both return after being rested from state of origin and Jake Friend moves into the starting side. These inclusions sees Brett Morris, Nat Butcher and Isaac Liu drop to the bench as well as Victor Radley reverting to his preferred position of lock. It is hard to see the Roosters losing two games in a row to the Knights as they haven’t done that in the last 9 years and we are predicting them to bounce back and avenge their loss from earlier this season, albeit in close fashion.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.75
Canberra Raiders ($1.46) vs Wests Tigers ($2.70)
Saturday, 20th July 5:30pm, GIO Stadium
The Canberra Raiders continue to impress almost everyone this season as they held on for a 36-14 win last week against the Dragons despite being a man down for the final 19 minutes due to a Nick Cotric send off. This week sees them return home to take on the Wests Tigers who are coming off 30-18 loss to the Eels in a game where they were celebrating club stalwart Benji Marshall’s 300th game. Unfortunately their 13 errors didn’t help their cause last week and they will be eager to avenge their 28-0 loss to the Raiders from a mere 5 rounds ago where they were completely embarrassed on the back of a starring performance from Aidan Sezer in his return game. For the Tigers this week the only change they have made has been the inclusion of Paul Momirovski on the wing in place of Robert Jennings whilst Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has been forced into including Michael Oldfield in the centres in place of the suspended Nick Cotric. Despite this loss Raiders fans can take confidence in their 5-3 home record from 2019 as well as their 5-1 record against the Tigers in their last 6 games. It is hard to see the Raiders losing this one as they boast the second best defence in the league and the Tigers haven’t exactly lit up the league with their attack as they have managed 17.7 points per game so far and we are leaning towards another dominant home victory for the Raiders.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -6.5 Line $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.30) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.62)
Saturday, 20th July 7:35pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
Not many people predicted that the Cowboys would manage to scrape a win away from home against the defending premiers last week but they managed to do just that as they came from 12-6 down in the second half to win 15-12 on the back of a starring performance from young half Jake Clifford. This win will have them full of confidence as they welcome the South Sydney Rabbitohs up to Townsville who were able to turn around some shaky form of their own with a 21-20 win over the Sea Eagles. This win was their first in 4 games as they struggled through the origin period and they will be hoping that they can repeat their performance against the Cowboys from magic round where they downed them 32 points to 16. To help them with this cause is the return of Queensland Origin representative Ethan Lowe who had one of the best games of his career in his origin debut just over a week ago and Wayne Bennett will be hoping he can continue this form as he returns to face his former club. For the Cowboys Jordan Kahu has been ruled out with injury and is replaced by Murray Taulagi who comes onto the wing for his NRL debut as Javid Bowen moves to the centres and Cowboys fans will be sweating on the fitness of Michael Morgan who is named on an extended bench as he looks to return from concussion. In recent history this contest has been a changing affair with the Cowboys winning 5 in a row until the Rabbitohs halted their streak and have now won the last 3. Despite this the Rabbitohs weren’t overly impressive last week against Manly and their average of only 15 points a game through the last month of NRL isn’t enough to convince me that they have turned the corner yet so we are predicting a tight victory to the Cowboys to help keep their finals hopes alive.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys 1-12 $3.40
Gold Coast Titans ($2.90) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.42)
Sunday, 21st July 2:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Bottom of the ladder welcomes top of the ladder in the first game on Sunday as the Melbourne Storm travel up to the Gold Coast to take on a Titans team who had their coach sacked last week as a result of a 3 game losing streak and a number of disappointing performances. This poses a threat to the Storm as teams typically respond a lot better on the back of their coach getting sacked and it will be interesting to see the extent of the Storms come down after the hype surrounding Cameron Smiths 400th game and their 40-16 victory against the Sharks from last round. Coach Craig Bellamy will be hoping that their wont be too much of a come down as they search for their 9th consecutive win in a bid to maintain their 6 point lead at the top of the table and as a result he has made a number of changes to his side from last week. These changes include the resting of almost all of his state of origin stars as Cameron Munster, Christian Welch, Will Chambers, Josh Addo-Carr and Felise Kaufusi are replaced by Marion Seve, Sandor Earl, Joe Stimson and Tui Kamikamica. For the Titans their first game without Garth Brennan has seen Mitch Rein, Will Matthews and Anthony Don dropped to the reserves whilst Shannon Boyd is out with injury and Dale Copley, Brenko Lee, Leilani Latu and Michael Gordon come into the side. The last time these two teams met the Storm scraped out a 10-8 win as they extended their winning streak in Gold Coast to 3 games in a row and we are confident that despite them missing a host of stars that they can still scrape a narrow win against the Titans.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.90
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.47) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.70)
Sunday, 21st July 4:05pm, Lottoland
The final game of the round is an incredibly important game for the make up of the top 8 as the 6th placed Parramatta Eels travel to Lottoland to take on the 5th placed Manly Sea Eagles. The Eels impressed many last week with their 30-18 victory as they continued their dominant form at Bankwest Stadium whilst the Sea Eagles will be disappointed with their 21-20 loss to the Rabbitohs as they had their fair share of opportunities to win and will be ruing their 9 errors throughout the match. As a result Tom Trbojevic has been recalled after being rested from his state of origin commitments as Brendan Elliot drops to the reserves and Lachlan Croker retains his spot on the bench. For the Eels coach Brad Arthur has seen no need to change a winning side as he keeps faith in the same 17 that did the job against the Tigers last week and look for 4 consecutive wins for the first time this season. Despite the Eels resurgent form over the last month of NRL there still remains a question mark over their form away from home as they have managed only 3 wins from 8 away games and with the return of Trbojevic to Manly we are confident that they can extend on their impressive home form on 5 wins from 8 home games.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles 1-12 $2.90
