NRL Round 17 Preview
With State of Origin over and the NRL entering the final 2 months of the regular season things are starting to heat up in the race for the top 8 and there are a number of important games in round 17. Read on as we preview the round for each team and predict how we think each game will go.
Penrith Panthers ($1.40) vs Gold Coast Titans ($2.90)
Friday, 12th July 6:00pm, Panthers Stadium
The first game of the round is brought to us a day later than normal due to game three of State of Origin being played on the Wednesday but it shapes as an important start to the round with both teams finals aspirations on the line as they are currently dwelling in the bottom 8. The Gold Coast Titans will be eager to make the trip down to Panthers Stadium as they are currently in the middle of a horrible patch of form where they have only won 3 of their last 10 matches and will be desperate to prove that they aren’t out of the finals race for 2019 by securing a shock win against a Penrith Panthers outfit that has won their last 5 games. The Panthers have completed one of the ultimate turnarounds in form as they now sit 10th on the ladder, only out of the top 8 on points differential, and this has largely been due to both the form of James Maloney as well as their improved defensive efforts. The last time these two teams met was back in round 5, when the Panthers were on a horrible run of form, and the Titans ran out 30-24 victors on the back of a 14 point effort from fullback Michael Gordon, who will miss this game with injury. This week sees both teams remain unchanged from their previous games but the interesting inclusion is the name of NSW halfback Nathan Cleary on the extended bench as he looks to return from an ankle injury sustained in game two of state of origin. Cleary’s inclusion could be pivotal in terms of the way this game swings but with the Panthers already on a 5 game winning streak and with the fact they have been bettered by only the ladder leaders in the Storm for form in recent weeks then we are confident that they can secure an impressive win to kickstart round 17.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -7.5 $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($1.42) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.85)
Friday, 12th July 7:55pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The prime time game for Friday sees the 6th placed Newcastle Knights welcome the 16th placed Canterbury Bulldogs to McDonald Jones Stadium as the Bulldogs will be looking for a performance that replicates their shock 14-12 victory over the Sharks from round 15. For the Knights they will be looking to bounce back from a 24-20 loss to the Warriors in a game where they led 20-18 with only 4 minutes left on the clock and will be disappointed with their inability to close out the game despite missing a host of stars. This loss was only their 3rd loss in their last 10 matches as the Knights have shown a significant improvement in form whilst the Bulldogs have struggled to put together consistent performances that are up to their standard as they have won only 3 of their last 10 matches. The last time these two teams met was back in magic round up at Suncorp stadium in round 9 where the Knights ran out 22-10 victors thanks to a 10 point effort from fullback Kalyn Ponga, which included a try, a try assist, a line break and 2 line break assists. Unfortunately for the Knights Kalyn Ponga wont be featuring in this game as he remains injured on the sideline as Connor Watson will get another chance at fullback. Despite this the Knights still look the better team as they welcome back Mitchell Pearce into the halves and they have included David Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti on an extended bench. The Bulldogs will also be without star halfback Kieran Foran who is replaced by 20 year old Brandon Wakeham in only his second appearance in NRL. With this in mind and the Knights expected to get some troops back in the halves and the forwards we are leaning towards them securing a second win against the Bulldogs in 2019.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -6.5 $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.55) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.40)
Saturday, 13th July 3:00pm, ANZ Stadium
Saturdays first game sees the 3rd placed South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the 5th placed Manly Sea Eagles at ANZ stadium as they will be eager to avenge their 13-12 loss to them from round 4 at Lottoland. This loss was South Sydney’s first of the season and it kickstarted a purple patch of form for the Rabbitohs that saw them lead the league at one stage thanks to a 6 game winning streak. Unfortunately for Rabbitohs fans that form is a distant memory for them as they are currently on a four game losing streak as they have struggled with State of Origin commitments and a number of injuries to key players. On the other hand the Sea Eagles have been going from strength to strength as they have won their last 3 matches to see them continue their march up the table. For the Rabbitohs this week they lose George Burgess to a suspension for an eye gouge but will be pleased to welcome back Sam Burgess to the starting pack and Adam Doueihi comes in at fullback in place of Corey Allan. The Sea Eagles will however be pleased to have named the same team from their last 3 matches, including all of their origin stars as they look to put the pressure on a Rabbitohs side who have their backs against the wall if they want to hold onto their place in the top four. Interestingly since 2015 these two sides have interchanged wins with no side being able to put together back to back wins against the other and we are leaning towards this trend continuing with a close Rabbitohs win.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12 $2.90
Brisbane Broncos ($1.57) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.40)
Saturday, 13th July 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium
Two teams coming off important victories come together in the penultimate game of Saturday as the New Zealand Warriors travel to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Brisbane Broncos. The Warriors scored a last gasp victory over a depleted Knights side in Newcastle last week thanks to a 77th minute try to Sam Lisone to help them keep in touch with the top 8 as they currently sit 2 points adrift in 11th placed. On the other hand a young Broncos side pulled off one of the upsets of the round as they defeated the Sharks 24-22 away from home in a win that marked their 6th consecutive win over the Sharks and helped them remain on 14 points, the same as the Warriors, but in 14th place due to points differential. The last time these two teams met in round 11 the Broncos ran out 8-2 winners in a match that saw only one try thanks to a combination of strong defence and some poor offensive plays but it is interesting to note that the Warriors defeated the Broncos 26-18 in their last match at Suncorp Stadium, which extended their record to 3 victories from their last 5 meetings at the venue. This week sees the Broncos welcome back a host of players as Anthony Milford returns at fullback, which sees Darius Boyd move to five eight, Jake Turpin shifts to halfback as Sean O’Sullivan is out injured and Corey Oates, David Fifita and Joe Ofahengaue are set to back up from origin commitments on Wednesday night. For the Warriors the only change is Karl Lawton coming out and Chanel Harris-Tavita coming onto the bench as coach Stephen Kearney looks to keep faith in the players who did the job for him last week. With both teams only scoring back to back wins once this season it is hard to predict who will succeed this week but we see value in the under total points market this week as 3 of their last 4 meetings have been less than the total points for this week
Recommended Bet: Under 41.5 Points $1.88
Melbourne Storm ($1.34) vs Cronulla Sharks ($3.20)
Saturday, 13th July 7:35pm, AAMI Park
Arguably the game of the round based on the previous meetings between these two teams is brought to us in the prime time game of Saturday as the Sharks travel to Melbourne looking to avenge a disappointing run of form. The Sharks have been very out of character in recent weeks as they have lost their last 3 games by a combined total of 6 points and have suffered a horror run of goal kicking where if they had kicked their attempts at goal then they would have won each of these games. This stat will have caused coach John Morris plenty of concern over the week as he knows that to beat a team as clinical as the Melbourne Storm and the current ladder leaders that it comes down to the smallest of margins. Thankfully for the Sharks they already hold a 20-18 victory over the Storm from round 8, which was coincidentally the last time that the Storm have lost as they currently sit on a 7 game winning streak. The Sharks will also take confidence in winning 3 of the last 4 encounters between these two teams as well as holding the Storm to under 20 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings. Despite this the Sharks will have to deal with the celebration of Cameron Smiths 400th NRL game in what should prove a motivating factor for his Storm teammates to rally around him. Not to mention the fact that Paul Gallen is out for the game and that the Storm have named all of their origin players to back up as well. With this in mind we are confident that the Storm can turn their form around against the Sharks and seeing as 6 of their last 7 encounters have been decided by 12 points or less then we are confident in in being a tight win too.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.70
Sydney Roosters ($1.33) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30)
Sunday, 14th July 2:00pm, Central Coast Stadium
The first game of Sunday sees the North Queensland Cowboys travel to the unusual Central Coast Stadium to take on the Sydney Roosters in what proves a critical game for their finals aspirations. The Cowboys are currently in the midst of a disappointing run of form that has seen them lose their last 3 games to the Sea Eagles, the Tigers and the Dragons in games where they had their fair share of opportunities to win them. This will have proved frustrating for coach Paul Green but he can take confidence in the fact that despite this they still remain one win outside of the top 8. For the Roosters they will be pleased to have defeated the Tigers 24-16 after going through a rough patch where they managed only one win from four games. This win was largely on the back of the return of Luke Keary who starred in a 3 try assist performance as he showed that he hasn’t missed a beat from his layoff due to concussion. This week sees Roosters coach Trent Robinson rest his state of origin duo in Boyd Cordner and James Tedesco as well as welcoming back club talisman Jake Friend from a bicep injury as he looks to add some much needed experience in the middle of the park. For the Cowboys they have also welcomed back two experienced heads to the middle in Josh McGuire and Matt Scott as well as the inclusion of Javid Bowen on the wing in place of Enari Tuala. Recently the Cowboys have been significantly better against the Roosters as their last two losses have been by 6 points in both games and they had a 13 point victory against them in the 2017 preliminary final. Paul Green will be hoping his team can continue this form and with the close nature of their recent games we are confident they can at least cover the line this week.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys +8.5 $1.90
Wests Tigers ($2.15) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.70)
Sunday, 14th July 4:05pm, Bankwest Stadium
Two Sydney teams with high hopes for playing finals footy in 2019 come together in this game as the 7th placed Parramatta Eels take on the 9th placed Wests Tigers at Bankwest Stadium. This match also sees the second time that these two teams have played at Bankwest Stadium this year as they met in round 6 in what was the inaugural match at Bankwest Stadium and a match that Tigers fans don’t need reminding of as the Eels ran out 51-6 victors. Thankfully for the Tigers their form at Bankwest Stadium as much improved since then as they defeated the Rabbitohs there in round 15 before going down to the Roosters there last round. For the Eels they will be fresh as they are coming off a bye after winning their last two matches against the Broncos and the Raiders. As a result of this coach Brad Arthur has kept his side relatively similar with the only change being Marata Niukore coming in for Peni Terepo whilst Tigers coach Michael Maguire has welcomed back Moses Mbye into the centres in place of Paul Momirovski in his only change. In recent history Parramatta have dominated this contest in winning 4 of the last 5 meetings but it is interesting to note that in 4 of the last 5 meetings the total points has exceeded this weeks total points line. With both teams being relatively inconsistent to follow we are interested in looking at the over total points for this match.
Recommended Bet: Over 40.5 Points $1.88
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.85) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.95)
Sunday, 14th July 6:10pm, WIN Stadium
The final game of the round sees the Canberra Raiders travel up to WIN Stadium to take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons in what proves an intriguing match for both sides. The Raiders will be disappointed with their performance in their last match as they raced off to an early lead against the Eels only to be ran down and lose 22-16 in a loss that halted a 3 game winning streak. For the Dragons they will be looking for a more consistent run of form as they haven’t put together back to back victories since round 5 & 6 and are coming off a 14-12 loss to the Storm at home. Thankfully for the Dragons they welcome back a host of players this week with Ben Hunt, Corey Norman, James Graham, Paul Vaughan, Tariq Sims and Tyson Frizzell returning from a mixture of injury, suspension and representative duties. For the Raiders lose outside back Sebastian Kris but gain NSW representative Nick Cotric in his return from injury in a move that should seriously improve their go forward coming out of their own half. In recent history the Dragons have dominated this matchup in winning 5 of the last 7 matches and we are confident that they can continue this run of form with an important win that keeps them in touch with the top 8.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons $1.85
