NRL Round 1 Preview
After whats possibly been the longest 165 days for rugby league fanatics words cannot do justice to explain the aura around the 2019 NRL season. With a host of big signings, coach changes and a fresh chance for 16 teams to begin the journey to the holy grail of rugby league there is an exciting feel around one of the most hotly contested seasons in recent history.
The Sydney Roosters will be looking to become the first team in 26 years to go back-to-back but this wont go without a fight from 15 teams who look significantly different to their 2018 versions. With this in mind we take a look at the round one match ups and how we think they will play out.
Melbourne Storm ($1.70) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.20)
Can new coach Anthony Seibold break the Bronco’s 5 game losing streak against the Storm or will a new look Storm outfit prevail once again?
That is the question on many peoples lips as Brisbane look to make one of the most daunting away trips in the NRL and attempt to defeat Melbourne at home, a stadium that the Storm went 10-4 at in 2018. This record has spurred the Storm into favouritism in the market but it’s important to note that Brisbane hold a handy away record of 4-1 when they travel as the underdog. For Brisbane to continue this away record then much will lie on how their talented young forwards deal with the pressure and experience of a Storm forward pack led by Jesse Bromwich. On the other hand, the Storm face their first full season without Billy Slater and it will pose an interesting test to Cameron Munster and Cameron Smith to lead their team in the post-Slater era. For this reason we believe the Broncos represent great value to upset the Storm and break their hoodoo.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $3.45
Newcastle Knights ($1.85) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.95)
The Sharks ran out resounding winners over the Knights in their pre-season meeting with a 30-6 demolition of the Knights. This win coupled with an eight match winning streak against the Knights, which dates back to 2014, would lead many to think that the Sharks should be heavy favourites for this round one clash. Despite this record, the market thinks otherwise with the Knights installed as marginal favourites in what proves to be a new era for the novocastrians led by Mitchell Pearce, boom signing David Klemmer and young gun Kalyn Ponga. Despite these signings the finals quality of this new look Knights squad will be tested by the experienced Sharks outfit whose consistent performances should be boosted with their own star signing of New Zealand Halfback Shaun Johnson. This one could go either way but the experience, familiarity and pre-season form of the Sharks squad might just have them ahead of a young Knights team.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks $1.95
Sydney Roosters ($1.57) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.40)
The games biggest and longest rivalry shapes as possibly the rounds most entertaining game as South Sydney look to avenge their preliminary final defeat at the hands of the Roosters from last season. To add to the hype of this game is the storylines behind the Roosters stealing one of Souths best forwards from last season in Angus Crichton and the beginning of the official Wayne Bennet Era for the men from Redfern. Much of South Sydney’s hopes will hinge on the impending fitness of star player Greg Inglis and his switch to right centre in order to combat the outstanding form of Latrell Mitchell. With this being said the Roosters hold a handy record against Souths from last year with two narrow victories and it’s hard to imagine the current world club champions starting their season with a loss.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.75
New Zealand Warriors ($1.57) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.40)
For the first time in a decade the New Zealand Warriors will start the season without the names of Simon Mannering or Shaun Johnson on their books. Despite this, under coach Stephen Kearney and with the 2018 Dally M Medal winner, Roger Tuivasa Sheck, they hold a significant chance to make the finals for the second year running. On the other hand, the Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2018 in which they only narrowly finished without the wooden spoon. The Bulldogs will be looking to continue their strong form in which they finished the season with 4 wins from their final 6 games. With a supposedly fit and firing Kieran Foran and a new look forward pack without David Klemmer they pose a massive threat to the Warriors but the journey to Mt Smart Stadium may prove to much for them and for this reason the Warriors are deserved favourites.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors Line -4.5 $2
West Tigers ($1.63) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($2.30)
The beginning of a new era for both clubs involved in this fixture, with the West Tigers hoping that former premiership winning coach Michael Maguire can lead them back into the finals whilst the Manly Sea Eagles welcome back former premiership winning coach Des Hasler in an attempt to reestablish them amongst the NRL’s best teams. Manly will have to do this without NSW Blues star Tom Trbojevic who succumbed to a hamstring injury in the trials and will feature a new look spine with Kane Elgey partnering Daly Cherry Evans in the halves. For the Tigers they have looked to the experienced head of Benji Marshall in the halves over Josh Reynolds who has been dumped to reserve grade whilst they will have to win without newly appointed club captain Moses Mbye who is also out with injury. On last seasons form this shapes to be an interesting match with the Tigers winning a 2 point thriller against the Sea Eagles but only hold a 3-3 record as the home favourite. With this being said we believe the Maguire led Tigers will start their 2019 season with a victory at their spiritual home, Leichhardt Oval.
Recommended Bet: West Tigers Line -3.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.80) vs St George Illawarra Dragons ($2)
North Queensland look to kickstart their post Johnathan Thurston era with a win against a side who hold a three game winning streak against them. Both sides made some handy signings in the off-season with the Cowboys adding Australian forward Josh McGuire to an already stacked forward pack whilst the Dragons signed Eels half Corey Norman and Broncos forward Korbin Sims. The Dragons will look to make the most of an imposing spine which sees Gareth Widdop move to fullback to continue this record against the Cowboys but to do this they will have to buck a trend of their own which saw them lose their last two away games of the 2018 season and a 0-3 record against the Cowboys when playing them as underdogs up in Townsville. The return of Michael Morgan to the Cowboys halves and the addition of Josh McGuire to complement a forward pack already boasting representative forwards Jason Taumalolo, Jordan McLean, Matt Scott, Gavin Cooper and Coen Hess leads us to think that the Cowboys will buck their losing streak against the Dragons to start their season.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys 1-12 $2.80
Penrith Panthers ($1.52) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.55)
The Ivan Cleary-Nathan Cleary era begins against a Parramatta Eels side who despite finishing with the wooden spoon from last season convincingly defeated the Panthers 20-0 in their pre-season trial match. The match poses an interesting fixture for both teams as Penrith look to begin their season with a win against a side they defeated 24-14 in the same fixture last season whilst the Eels look to move on from a disappointing season and recapture the 2017 form that saw them finish in the top four. For the Panthers to win all they need to do is continue their form which saw them defeat the Eels twice last season and for the Eels to buck this losing streak then it will require a significant lift in performance from Mitchell Moses as he looks to take the responsibility of leading the Eels around the park. Despite the loss of Viliame Kikau to injury there is enough talent across the Penrith side to give them the 2 points and a strong start to season in which many are tipping them to go all the way.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 13+ $2.80
Gold Coast Titans ($1.85) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.95)
The final fixture of the round sees the Canberra Raiders travel up to the glitter strip to take on a Gold Coast side who have recruited successfully over the off season with the signings of Shannon Boyd and Tyrone Peachey. Boyd’s signing poses an interesting matchup against a side that he debuted and played over 100 games for and it will be interesting to see his battle with Raiders representative star Josh Papalli. In recent history this fixture has been a close result with both sides winning one game each last year by 2 points but the home ground advantage for the Titans could prove significant this time round. For the Raiders to win they will have to buck a trend where they won only 1 out of 9 games in which they started as the underdog when playing away from home and much of this will depend how Jack Wightons transition into the halves plays out. For this reason we believe that the Titans will continue this streak by handing the Raiders another away defeat.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans 1-12 $2.80
