Super Rugby Week Round 18
The Form Guide
With only two rounds left before we hit the Super Rugby finals, we are down to 10 teams that still have a mathematical chance of making through. Last week saw some upsets sprinkled through some more predictable results as the ladder starts to sort itself out. The Crusaders had the bye, but still sit head and shoulders above the rest, so the focus for Todd Blackadder’s men will be regaining their momentum over the next couple of weeks. Top spot and a run of home finals await if they can maintain their form for the next couple of weeks. The Hurricanes still sit behind them in a clear second place, however three losses on the trot will have fans in Wellington a little worried, and a return of some troops in a hurry would be very welcome.
In Australia, the Waratahs nailed the Rebels late in a cracking local derby to take a commanding lead at the top of the conference. Both teams were missing star power through injury or suspension, and it looked as though the Rebels were going to sneak home, until Bernard Foley ran away with an intercept. The Brumbies were excellent in their win over the Hurricanes, and this might be a season they look back on in terms of missed opportunities. The Reds, meanwhile, were diabolical in their loss to the equally underwhelming Blues, in a match that did nothing for rugby as a sport. For all of the improvement the Reds may have made this year, and the promise that their early wins showed, the season has been another disaster in terms of actual results. Brad Thorn is safe, but there needs to be some serious soul searching at Ballymore to turn their fortunes around.
In South Africa, the Lions have left the door ajar for the Jaguares to nail top spot in the conference after they went down to countrymen the Sharks last weekend. The Argentinians beat the Stormers to narrow the gap on the table to just 3 points, and with the Lions not in action this weekend, the chance is there. If they do happen to win the conference, what a remarkable achievement that would be, and there would be some nervous travelling teams heading into the finals.
The Big Games
With all five Kiwi teams in action this week, including two local derbies, it’s all to play for. The round starts with the Crusaders hosting the Highlanders, and who knows what we will see from the men from Otago. After being down 42-0 at halftime against the Chiefs last weekend, they rallied to win the second half, but the Cantabrians are not likely to take the foot of the throat so easily. The Highlanders actually upset the Crusaders when the teams met back in March, but it is a long time now since any team has tasted victory over them. Watch out for the return of All Black legend Kieran Read to the red and black, he is sure to be looking to recapture his best form before the finals kick off. The Hurricanes meet the Blues in the other derby, and if the Hurricanes can’t break their losing streak against the Aucklanders there will be some serious questions asked. The Chiefs are raging favourites at home against the Brumbies, and if they turn it on like they did in the first half last week, the Brumbies could be in trouble. After toppling the Hurricanes last week, though, Dan McKellar’s men will be keen to notch just their third away win of the season.
The Reds host the Rebels on Friday night in the first meeting between the two teams since Melbourne did a number on the Reds in round 1. A number of injuries in the Reds’ backline has left them seriously undermanned out wide, but their forward pack continues to dominate the set piece, and the battle up front in this one will be great to watch. The Rebels seemed to cope with the loss of Will Genia and Adam Coleman last weekend, and if their forward pack can break even, they should have too much firepower in the backline for the young Reds.
The Waratahs are at home to the Sunwolves on Saturday night, and not only must the tahs win this one, they must win well. They have notched a half century in both clashes with the Japanese team, and a home game only two weeks out from the finals should be a tune up for them, not a tight one. The return of Israel Folau will be a welcome boost, as will the news Michael Hooper is hopeful of wearing the sky blue again this year. If they can survive without him for two more weeks, he might just be right to return for the finals.
The Jaguares take their seven match winning streak to Pretoria this weekend to meet the Bulls, in what shapes as a huge opportunity for the Argentinians. The have a good record against the Bulls, having won 2 of the 3 clashes between the teams, including a 30 point victory in Buenos Aires in May. A win of any kind win propel them to the top of the conference with one game to play, so they will know exactly how important this one is.
Predictions
The Crusaders return to action this weekend with their talisman, Kieran Read, back from injury, and they should be too strong for the unpredictable Highlanders. The Reds will rally against the Rebels, but Melbourne will be too strong out wide and will win this one in Brisbane, while the Chiefs will get the job done at home against the Brumbies. The Hurricanes will beat the Blues, because they simply have to, and the same rule applies for the Waratahs, who will put a good score on the Sunwolves. The Jaguares will nab their top spot by grabbing an away win over the Bulls, and the Sharks will get home against the Stormers.
Best Bet
They are travelling, but the Jaguares will know how important this one is against the Bulls. There is value there as outsiders, so we’ll take the Argentinians head to head at $2.05 as our best bet of the week.
For the latest Super Rugby odds, click here.
Words: Cameron Stokes
