Richmond Tigers v Carlton Blues
Thursday, March 22 7:25pm, MCG
Richmond and Carlton kick off another AFL season with this rivalry matchup. The Tigers are coming off a Grand Final victory and their preseason form says they’ll be up there again. While for Carlton, this will likely be another year of rebuilding after losing Gibbs and Docherty. The trouble for the Blues will be scoring points. They’ve failed to score over 100 points against the Tigers in the last 6 meetings. So in the end, I’ll be backing the Tigers to start Round 1 with a 30+ win.
Stadium Record
Last season, the Tigers won 7 straight matches at the MCG on their way to the GF. Meanwhile the Blues are 0-5 at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has dominated Carlton in recent times with six straight victories. Last season, they won this Round 1 matchup 132-89.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows
Friday, March 23 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
Friday night is an expected tight clash between the Bombers and Crows. Essendon picked up talent in the offseason with the likes of Saad, Devon Smith and Stringer. So they’ll be looking to build on their 7th finish in 2017. For Adelaide, they also recruited well with the additions of Gibbs and Gibson to bolster their midfield. In this matchup, their forward line looks to have the Bombers covered. The likes of Walker (may miss with injury), Betts, Jenkins and co is a scary proposition. So I’ll back the Crows to cover the short line.
Stadium Record
The Crows have smashed the Bombers at this venue by 43 and 112 points in the last two meetings.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide is 4-0 against the Bombers since 2015 and have scored 120+ in all four wins.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints v Brisbane Lions
Saturday, March 24 3:35pm, Etihad Stadium
Saturday afternoon kicks off at Etihad as the Saints host the Lions. St Kilda just missed the finals last season and will be looking to start with a victory. They have a great record against the Lions and love playing on this surface. The Lions are coming off a wooden spoon and will likely be around the bottom four again. But they’ve added the experience of Luke Hodge and he should help them develop. The key to this matchup is in the midfield. The loss of Tom Rockliff around the stoppages will hurt the Lions and the Saints will likely get first use. Although, I can’t see a blowout, the Saints should win by 1-39 points.
Stadium Record
St Kilda is 5-1 at Etihad and the Lions went 1-3 at Etihad last season.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 3-0 against the Lions and beat them 107-76 at this venue last season.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power v Fremantle Dockers
Saturday, March 24 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
AFL at the Adelaide Oval opens with the Power up against the Dockers. Port Adelaide were aggressive in free agency as they picked up Rockliff, Watts and Motlop. That should improve their forward line which is already strong with Dixon, Gray and Wingard. They have a great record against the Dockers at home and it’s hard to see that changing. The Dockers will be need to be stronger in defence this season, especially here against the Power. They’ve been smashed in the last few matches in Adelaide. So they’ll need the likes of Fyfe and Neale to dominate through the midfield. But I can’t see the Power dropping this one by under 4 goals.
Stadium Record
Port has beaten Fremantle at this venue by 89 and 69 points in the last two meetings.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 8-4 against the Power since 2010 but the Power are 2-1 since 2015.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Saturday, March 24 7:25pm, Cazaly's Stadium
These two teams are hard to split in the betting as they finished in the bottom four last season. For the Suns, they have a new coach and lost Gary Ablett. So their hopes mainly ride on Lynch and May. While for the Kangaroos, they lost alot of close games last season and should be confident of upsetting the Suns at a neutral venue. They’ve improved their midfield with the additon of Hartung and a few young rookies, such as Luke Davies Uniacke. They do both have strong forwards in Lynch and Ben Brown. However, injuries to a few key Suns (Hall and Hanley) is a blow for a side without much depth. In the end, the Kangaroos are good value for the win. They averaged more points per game then the Suns last season and the Suns are 0-5 at the venue.
Stadium Record
The Suns have played in Cairns on seven occasions and they are 2-5, including five straight losses. North has never played at this venue.
Head to Head Record
North Melbourne is 2-1 against the Suns since 2016. They both won a match against each other last season.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks v Collingwood Magpies
Saturday, March 24 7:25pm, MCG
The second Saturday night match is also close in the betting between the Hawks and Magpies. This has been a great rivalry over the last few seasons and I’m expecting another close contest. Both sides have strong midfields so the clearances will be the key. For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell loves playing the Magpies and Jaegar O’Meara is looking fit again. While for Collingwood, Treloar, Adams, Pendlebury and Sidebottom form a strong midfield combination. In the end, the Hawks won the last matchup by 4 goals and they should win again. The Pies lack scoring options without Elliott, De Goey and Moore now down back.
Stadium Record
The Hawks went 4-7 at the MCG last season and the Magpies went 4-9 (1 draw).
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn is 11-4 against them since 2010 and won by 24 points in the last meeting.
Best Bet
GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs
Sunday, March 25 1:10pm, UNSW Canberra Oval
The Giants and Bulldogs renew their rivalry in Round 1 in Canberra. GWS is coming off another Preliminary final exit and they’ll be looking for a GF spot in 2018. They have a great midfield and that will be the key against the Bulldogs. For the Dogs, they missed the finals last season and will be going for an upset. However, a 105-57 victory by the Giants in the last matchup makes it hard to back against the Giants at home. The Bulldogs have also lost a few key defenders and they’ll struggle to contain the Giants forward line.
Stadium Record
The two sides played in a thriller here last season with the Giants winning 75-73.
Head to Head Record
The Giants went 2-0 against the Bulldogs last season.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons v Geelong Cats
Sunday, March 25 3:20pm, MCG
This should be an interesting clash between the Cats and Demons. The two sides can’t be split in the betting so hopefully it’s a close contest. The Cats are coming off a Preliminary final and added Gary Ablett in the offseason. Dangerfield is in doubt with a hamstring for this match. They also miss Mackie and Longeran down back after they both retired. While for Melbourne, 2017 was another failed season in terms of finals but they should improve in 2018. Max Gawn is fit and he’ll be the key for the Demons getting past this midfield. In the end, the Demons will be looking to make a statement in Round 1 and the injury to Danger hurts the Cats chances.
Stadium Record
At the MCG last season, the went Cats 4-3 and the Demons had a 6-6 record.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has dominated the Demons since 2010 with a 7-1 record. They won the last matchup 126-97.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans
Sunday, March 25 7:20pm, Optus Stadium
The first match at Optus Stadium ends Round 1 as the Eagles host the Swans. The Eagles have lost a wealth of experience in the offseason and will also miss key forward Josh Kennedy in the first few rounds. They also have a question mark on the ruck with Nic Naitanui. Speaking of ruck issues, the Swans are in the same situation. Sam Naismith is out for the season and Kurt Tippett has already retired. So both sides are struggling with injuries already. However, Sydney has a huge advantage with Lance Franklin up forward and the Kennedy out hurts the Eagles scoring chances. So take Sydney 1-39.
Stadium Record
This is the first AFL men's match at Optus Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 6-2 against the Eagles but they’ve lost the last two in Perth.
Best Bet
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