Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
25 August, Etihad Stadium
Round 23 is full of farewells, and none bigger than this one. Luke Hodge and probably Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd will depart after this, unless the Dogs somehow make the finals. Hawthorn recovered after a disastrous start to the year, but the loss to the young Blues last week ended their slim finals hopes. The Bulldogs battled in Ballarat but were not good enough. Strange things can happen when finals are no longer likely. Teams can lift for retiring greats or succumb to the disappointment of not making finals. I think Hawthorn’s form stacks up, while the Dogs have been looking for their mojo all year. Throw in another hamstring injury to Stringer and I like the Hawks here.
Stadium Record
Last week’s 7-point loss to Carlton is Hawthorn’s only game at Etihad so far this year. The Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5 at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs semi-final win over the Hawks last year ended an 8 game losing streak against the brown and gold.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win $2.05.
Collingwood v Melbourne
26 August, MCG
Collingwood jumped Geelong last week but was outplayed after quarter-time, while Melbourne defeated a plucky Brisbane. Collingwood’s midfield took control and their tackling was ferocious. However, they only kicked three goals after quarter-time. Melbourne was boosted by Hogan’s return. His six-goal haul was sensational and he will be a factor this week against an undersized defence. Melbourne matches Collingwood’s dangerous midfield and the ruck battle between Gawn and the returning Grundy will be fascinating. Melbourne’s forwards look more likely and their defence has been solid all year. I expect the Dees to win and then turn their attention to finals football.
Stadium Record
Collingwood’s last six at the MCG has been 5 losses and 1 draw. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s last six there has been 5 wins and 1 loss.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last four against Collingwood, including a 4-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Melbourne at the line -8.5 $1.90.
Brisbane v North Melbourne
26 August, Gabba
It might be last against second last, but there is plenty of interest surrounding this game because the loser gets first pick in the draft. Both coaches have stressed the importance of winning and I have no doubt they mean it. There have been plenty of good signs for Brisbane this year and their effort against Melbourne last week reflected that. After a promising start, North was beaten on every line against St Kilda. Brisbane’s recent form has been very good for a young side on the bottom of the ladder. The mix of experience (Dayne Beams, Zorko and Rich) and youth (Mathieson, Witherden and McCluggage) might just be too much for the Roos, who are without their skipper, Ziebell. It is also challenging travelling interstate for the final round after a long season, when finals are not part of the equation.
Stadium Record
Brisbane has won 2 of their last 3 home games. Both wins were by five goals or more. North has won their last two at the Gabba by 34 and 72 points.
Head to Head Record
North has won the last three against the Lions and they were all convincing victories.
Best Bet
Brisbane win 1-39 $2.15.
Sydney v Carlton
26 August, SCG
Sydney’s win against the ladder leaders in Adelaide emphasised their threat to the rest of the competition, while the Blues got reward for effort by defeating Hawthorn. Sydney jumped the Crows and then looked in trouble late in the game. They steadied and won. Carlton dominated early and should have had a greater lead. Like Sydney they survived some tense moments and recorded a superb win. Carlton has been competitive all year and stuck to their structures, but beating the Swans in Sydney is beyond them. It will be a great learning curve for their young players, while this is the final hit-out for Sydney before finals. Sydney’s depth and experience could take them deep into September.
Stadium Record
Sydney has won their last five at home, including a 104-point win last up against Fremantle. The SCG hasn’t been kind to Carlton. They have 1 win and 11 losses there since 1994.
Head to Head Record
Carlton stunned Sydney in round 6 this year, winning by 19 points. That win ended a five year drought against the Swans.
Best Bet
Carlton first quarter handicap +12.5 $1.87.
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast
26 August, Adelaide Oval
Port was good against the Dogs and won in Ballarat, while Gold Coast fought against Essendon but were undermanned and out of their depth. Port has made a meal of some lowly ranked teams this year and the Suns fit that mould. They have lost seven in a row and are third last on the ladder. They don’t have a coach and this could well be Ablett’s last game for the Suns. Port’s dangerous smalls such as Robbie Gray and Wingard could have a day out. Their opponents are largely inexperienced and they could hit the scoreboard. Ryder also looks to have an advantage over his rucking counterpart. A big performance could see him receive All Australian honours.
Stadium Record
Port has won 5 of their last 7 at the Adelaide Oval. Their losses were to top four teams- Adelaide and Richmond. Gold Coast is 0-2 at the Adelaide Oval. They have never played Port there.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has won the last seven against the Suns, including a 72-point victory this year in China.
Best Bet
Port at the line -48.5 $1.90.
Geelong v GWS
26 August, Simonds Stadium
Geelong looked in trouble against the Pies but turned it around, while GWS withstood a gallant West Coast Eagles. The Cats changed the game by sending an extra into defence. That goalkeeper role stopped the Pies run. Kelly was the standout for the Giants with 43 touches and a goal. Will Geelong send Scott Selwood to him or does that mean others get off the chain? Conversely, what will the Giants do with Dangerfield? Hawkins is a big in for Geelong. Taylor was solid without him, but the two together pose a greater threat. This is a huge match because the winner will secure a home final. However, will they play all their cards in the hope of getting a home final or is keep something up their sleeve for September more important?
Stadium Record
Geelong’s home record is intimidating. They are 5-1 there this year. GWS has lost both their games at Simonds.
Head to Head Record
These two teams drew earlier this year. Both teams had a number of outs for that game.
Best Bet
GWS win $2.00.
Essendon v Fremantle
27 August, Etihad Stadium
Essendon did enough to win against the Suns, while Fremantle was blown away after quarter-time. Essendon won by 33 points but had eighteen more scoring shots and Daniher was well held. Unfortunately they lost Green who joins fellow small forward, Fantasia, on the sidelines. Fremantle didn’t make the most of their chances early and then fell away badly. Motivation can be an issue late in the year for young sides that can’t play finals, but Carlton and Brisbane haven’t capitulated. Finals are on the line for the Bombers. They have the motivation, form, experience and talent to win. Ross Lyon will be looking for a competitive performance after successive hundred point losses, but I can’t see a miracle win to unsettled the final eight.
Stadium Record
Essendon has lost their last two at Etihad and their overall record there this year is 4-4. Fremantle defeated North by 4 points in their only game at Etihad this year.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle has won the last four against Essendon, including a 37-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Essendon at the line -43.5 $1.90.
Richmond v St Kilda
27 August, MCG
Richmond smashed Fremantle last week in the west, while St Kilda accounted for the Kangaroos. Richmond was challenge early but controlled the match after quarter-time. Townsend had a day out with six goals. Like Richmond, St Kilda gained ascendency after quarter-time and won by eight goals. This is a big game. Top four is on the line for Richmond and St Kilda’s faint finals hopes might still be alive by bounce down. Last time these teams met St Kilda blew the Tigers away with pressure and precision. They will be buoyed by that. It is probably Nick Riewoldt’s last game and St Kilda will want to send arguably their greatest player off in style. However, Richmond has been consistent all year and playing at the MCG is different to Etihad.
Stadium Record
Richmond has won their last three at the MCG against Hawthorn, GWS and Carlton. St Kilda lost their only game at the MCG this year to Melbourne a couple of weeks ago.
Head to Head Record
St Kilda has won the last two against the Tigers including a 67-point mauling in round 16.
Best Bet
Richmond win 1-39 $2.05.
West Coast v Adelaide
27 August, Domain Stadium
The Eagles fought against GWS but was not strong enough in the last quarter, while Adelaide lost a close heavyweight contest against Sydney. The Eagles need results to fall their way and then knock over the Crows to make the finals. It seems unlikely and as a result this will probably be Priddis’ and Mitchell’s last games. Adelaide will enjoy a tune up before the finals and playing West Coast in Perth is never easy. The midfield will be crucial because Adelaide’s forward line looks too potent for the Eagles defence. At the other end Kennedy is the key figure with Darling not playing the consistent football he would have liked. I expect the Crows to win, but if somehow the Eagles season is still alive by bounce down it could be game on.
Stadium Record
West Coast has won their last three at Domain. They defeated Carlton, Brisbane and Fremantle. Adelaide won both their games at Domain last year by 72 and 29 points.
Head to Head Record
Since 2011, these teams have split their games 4-4.
Best Bet
Adelaide at the line -11.5 $1.90.
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Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
