Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
7 July, Adelaide Oval
The Crows beat a determined Carlton, while the Dogs season is on the line after another disappointing and concerning loss. Adelaide jumped the Blues but didn’t get it all their way. They fought hard for their two goal victory and were happy to return home with the four points. The Western Bulldogs rallied late, but it was a bridge too far as they lost to the Eagles by 7 points. The key to the Dogs 2016 success was having 22 contributors. That is not the case this year. Stringer, Roughead and Johannisen are not playing at the same level as last year. The Crows are not in top gear either, but are playing better football than the Dogs. There needs to be a massive turnaround for the Dogs to win, but funny things have happened this year.
Stadium Record
Adelaide's home record was as good as anyone's, however they have lost 2 of their last 4 there. Is it an aberration? The Dogs are 1-2 at the Adelaide Oval, after a thrilling 3 point victory last year. Those three matches were all against Port Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
The last 5 meetings between these teams were all played in Melbourne. The Dogs won 3 of those matches.
Best Bet
Adelaide win 1-39 $2.15.
Hawthorn v GWS
8 July, University of Tasmania Stadium
Hawthorn beat the Pies by four goals, while the Giants recorded their first draw in their short history. Hawthorn started regaining important players from injury and the results went from there. After starting the season 1-5, they have won 5 of their last 8 games. It is not all down to their experienced players because Burton, Howe, Brand, Hardwick and O'Brien have shown plenty. GWS was outplayed for three quarters against an undermanned Geelong. However, the Giants had their share of missing stars and turned things around. Shiel's carry and speed from congestion is damaging, while Patton is fast becoming a colossus. The Giants like playing the Hawks having beaten them the past two years. Even though the Tassie conditions can be tricky for visiting teams, the Giants have shown they can win different ways. Unfortunately, both teams will be missing players with Hawthorn losing important defenders Stratton and Birchall again, while the Giants are without Greene, Johnson and Williams.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn is 1-1 there this year, after previously winning 19 in a row in Launceston. The Giants have only played there once. It was during their second year and they lost by 83 points.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last two against the Hawks, including last year’s 75 point mauling.
Best Bet
GWS win 1-39 $2.15.
Collingwood v Essendon
8 July, MCG
Collingwood has dropped to fifteenth on the ladder after losing to Hawthorn, while Essendon’s shock loss to Brisbane could have massive finals ramifications. Things just aren’t right at Collingwood. Their midfield is strong, their kids haven’t developed (except De Goey) and their All-Australian centre-halfback was dropped last week. There are question marks over Essendon too. It focuses on their ability to run out games. Not only have they been overrun two weeks in a row, from dominate positions, but they fell away against Fremantle, Carlton and Geelong earlier this year. This is a must win for both sides. For Collingwood to win, they need goals from Hoskin-Elliott, Elliott and Fasolo, while the Bombers require their leaders, such as Heppell, Goddard and Zaharakis, to impact the game at critical moments.
Stadium Record
Collingwood has lost their last three at the MCG, against Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Melbourne. Essendon is 3-2 at the MCG this year.
Head to Head Record
The last six games have been win-loss between these teams. Essendon won the ANZAC Day battle by 18 points earlier this year.
Best Bet
Collingwood win $2.00.
Sydney v Gold Coast
8 July, SCG
The Swans steamrolled an undermanned Melbourne, while the Suns proved once again they are a good side at home, defeating North by three goals. Parker was back to his best against the Dees. His hands were clean and his thirst for the contest was outstanding. If they kicked straight early, the damage could have been worse. Gold Coast controlled the game and North’s late charge never really threatened. It was Lyons’ best game for the Suns, since crossing from the Crows. He complemented Ablett and Swallow, while also finding plenty of the ball. The Suns midfield will once again need to shine for them to have any chance, and the challenge is even greater with Ablett’s and Hanley’s withdrawls. Lynch probably needs another bag and May will have to stop Franklin. It’s a tall order considering the Swans midfield has found form, and their backline is now solid after getting the likes of Rampe and McVeigh back. Throw in Rohan’s return up forward and Naismith holding his own in the ruck, and it looks red and white to me.
Stadium Record
The Swans have restored normal order by winning 3 of their last 4 at home. The Suns have only played at the SCG twice. They lost those games by 63 and 41 points.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has never lost to Gold Coast. The closest the Suns came was 35 points, back in 2014.
Best Bet
Sydney at the line -36.5 $1.90.
Brisbane v Geelong
8 July, Gabba
Brisbane was sensational last week. The young Lions kicked 6 goals to 2 in the last quarter to beat Essendon. Geelong was equally gallant, playing out the first draw of 2017 against the Giants. Brisbane keep unearthing young talent. Witherden and Cutler join the likes of McStay, Andrews, Mayes, Mathieson, Hipwood and McCluggage as long-term prospects. Geelong lost more players before the match, including Joel Selwood, and ended up playing three debutants against the premiership favourites. The Cats pressure was immense and a Hawkins point after the siren levelled the scores. Geelong has stayed up north for the week in preparation for the Lions. There is no doubt Geelong will put some time into Zorko. When left to his own devices he carries the ball and kicks goals. The Cats should beat a buoyed Brisbane, especially with Selwood returning to the side, but you can’t take anything for granted this season.
Stadium Record
Brisbane beat Fremantle at home in Round 12. That's their only home victory this year in six attempts. Geelong has won 5 of their last 6 at the Gabba. The loss was after the siren, when they squandered a 50 point lead.
Head to Head Record
The Cats have won the last six against the Lions, including 60 and 69 point victories last year.
Best Bet
Brisbane first quarter handicap +7.5 $1.89.
St Kilda v Richmond
8 July, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda had a stirring win over the Dockers, while Richmond was magnificent, beating Port in Adelaide. It was a seesawing game for the Saints. There were multiple lead changes, but in the end the best team won. Richmond recorded a famous win after only kicking 3 goals in the first half. I get the feeling some AFL coaches might be using BlueBet as a guide because Rance was tagged for the first time in his career, as predicted in last week’s blog. Will St Kilda employ similar tactics? Okay, that’s enough gloating and self-promoting, I’ll get back to the job at hand. This will be a fierce contest in the middle. Martin looms as the matchwinner, expect Stevens to pay him close attention. Richmond’s small forward line means there is no obvious matchup for Carlisle. I wonder what they do with him? The other concern is that St Kilda could not stop Walters last week. This should be an intriguing contest against two Top 8 teams.
Stadium Record
St Kilda hasn’t been as consistent as they usually are at Etihad. They are 6-4 there this year. Richmond’s 35 point victory over North Melbourne in Round 11, ended a three game losing streak at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
St Kilda beat the Tigers by 9 points last year. That was their first win over Richmond since 2010.
Best Bet
Richmond win 1-39 $2.30.
North Melbourne v Fremantle
9 July, Etihad Stadium
The Roos went down to the Suns in Queensland and are now second last on the ladder, while the Dockers lost a close one against the Saints. Once again, the Roos didn’t get their hands on the ball. They are ranked last in the competition for kicks and second last for disposals. Their endeavour is good, but they can’t finish their work. Meanwhile, Walters was unbelievable for Fremantle against the Saints. He had 32 touches and kicked 6 goals. He is elite in so many ways. Even though Fremantle has lost their last five there have been promising signs the last two weeks. The bad news is they lose McCarthy to suspension and Sandilands to injury, good news is Stephen Hill and Blakely are back. Darcy has been terrific in his first two games and the ruck position is now his for the year. North have also lost their key forward, Waite. In typical Waite fashion, he was very good against the Suns before succumbing to injury. The flow on effect means Brown now gets Hamling, who has been tremendous all year. North gets back Cunnington and his grunt will be needed against Fyfe, Neale and Mundy. Like Fremantle, North has lost their last four, and need a win.
Stadium Record
North has won 2 of their last 11 at Etihad. Those wins were over Carlton and Gold Coast. Fremantle has lost their last four at Etihad. This is their first game there this year.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their matches since 2005. Neither team has a dominance and there has been the occasional away win. Fremantle beat the Roos by 5 points earlier this year.
Best Bet
North at the line -10.5 $1.90.
Carlton v Melbourne
9 July, MCG
Carlton was competitive again and just lost to Adelaide, while Melbourne’s injuries caught up with them as they were outclassed by the Swans. Gibbs was sensational again and is having a fantastic season. He is getting the ball, kicking goals and tackling the opposition with intent. Melbourne was beaten all over the ground by Sydney. It was a dirty night as Viney never returned after half-time and Bugg’s hit on Mills was unsavoury. In a real positive, Hogan is back after overcoming his cancer scare. Carlton is playing with system and unity, and they will fancy their chances against a team that has faltered against lesser opponents. Expect a fierce game, with some key matchups. Gawn and Kreuzer, Petracca and Docherty, Lewis and Cripps and Hibberd and Thomas. Interestingly, the last four games between these teams have been low scoring, with stifled ball movement.
Stadium Record
Carlton has lost their last two at the MCG against good opposition, Adelaide and Richmond. Melbourne has lost 5 of their last 6 at the MCG. Their only win was a 4 point thriller against the Pies.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last four matches, which includes Melbourne’s 22 point win earlier this year. Before that, Carlton won seven in a row against the Dees.
Best Bet
Melbourne win 1-39 $2.30.
West Coast v Port Adelaide
9 July, Domain Stadium
West Coast recorded a much needed away win in Victoria, while Port Adelaide had a disappointing home loss to Richmond. The Eagles were the better side all day. The Dogs fought back and got within a kick, late in the game, but Vardy sealed victory in the dying minutes. He is an interesting player, Vardy. He showed glimpses of raw talent to go with his athleticism at Geelong, and his last 10 minutes last week reminded us what he can do. Port Adelaide rued their poor goalkicking, but they have another problem too. They have not beaten a Top 8 team all year. Wingard has moved further up the field and he got plenty of it on the weekend. However, he is not hitting the scoreboard like he used to. They really need their skipper, Boak, to lift. He isn’t impacting games like he has in the past and if the Power want to win in the west, and defeat a Top 8 side, he has to lead the charge. West Coast welcome back Hurn and Priddis, but still no star forward Kennedy.
Stadium Record
Domain Stadium is still a feared venue for visiting teams, however, the Eagles have lost 2 of their past 3 there. Port has lost 7 of their last 9 at Domain. However, only two of those matches were against West Coast and they split those 1-1.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last three against the Power. Those three games were all decided by 10 points or less and they were played in Adelaide.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide win 1-39 $2.95.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
For the latest AFL markets, click here.
