Sydney v Western Bulldogs
8 June, Adelaide Oval
It’s been a different 2017 for these teams after playing off in last year’s Grand Final. Sydney are 3-7, while the Dogs are 6-4. Both teams are coming off byes and desperate to win. Sydney were outworked against the Hawks in their last outing. They need to bring intent and extreme defensive pressure against the Dogs. Most of their injured stars are back and Sydney rely on their superstars, none more so than Franklin. While the Swans look to star-power, the Bulldogs rely on 22 even contributors, even though their best 22 is never settled. The Bulldogs had a big win last outing, which is not the norm. They generally don’t have the goal-scoring power to blow teams away, and this looks like another tight contest against the Swans.
Stadium Record
Sydney has only won 1 of 5 home matches this year. That win was against Brisbane. The Dogs have won their last two at the SCG, both by 4 points.
Head to Head Record
The Dogs have won the last four against the Swans, including a 23 point victory this year.
Best Bet
The Dogs present good value at $2.05 to win.
Adelaide v St Kilda
9 June, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide are coming off a disappointing loss to Geelong last week, while the Saints were equally disappointing in their last outing against the Dogs. Adelaide was beaten in the middle and their midfield depth looks like their Achilles heel. Sloane was restricted again and Seb Ross could get the job this week. The Saints speed in the middle will worry the Crows, but I’m not sure if speed is enough. Both forward lines have options and both defences are sturdy. Tom Lynch needs some recognition. His link up and hit up play adds a different dimension to the Crows, and I’m not sure if St Kilda has the perfect matchup for him. Geary would be alright, but he might need to watch Betts. I expect the Crows to bounce back at home, but St Kilda will bring the heat after being questioned. Riewoldt will miss again.
Stadium Record
The Crows have won 5 of 6 at the Adelaide Oval this year. The one lost was to Melbourne. St Kilda has played at the Adelaide Oval 6 times for 6 losses. The margins were all greater than five goals.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last 6. St Kilda last beat the Crows in 2011 by 103 points.
Best Bet
Adelaide to win 1-39 $2.37.
Hawthorn v Gold Coast
10 June, MCG
The Hawks are coming off a big loss against Port Adelaide, while the Suns won a thriller against the Eagles. Hawthorn was jumped and never recovered. It was their worst first half in history and they kicked their first goal in the third quarter. They are missing key players and adjusting to life after losing so many premiership heroes. The Suns kicked late goals to snatch victory. They deserved their win after controlling much of the game. The Suns need to tidy up their disposal. This is an interesting match, especially with the internal suspension to Gold Coast’s Harbrow. Gold Coast has talent and their young players are more experienced than their counterparts. Hawthorn will be leaning on their senior brigade such as Burgoyne, Hodge, Smith and Mitchell. Meanwhile Gold Coast has weapons such as Lynch, Ablett, Swallow and May. On talent I back the Suns, but can they deliver on the MCG against the once feared Hawks?
Stadium Record
Hawthorn has won 2 of their last 8 at the MCG. They beat the Eagles and Demons. In the last two years the Suns have played at the MCG 4 times for 4 losses.
Head to Head Record
These teams played earlier this year and Gold Coast recorded their first ever win against Hawthorn. It was a sensational 86 point victory.
Best Bet
Gold Coast win $2.27.
Brisbane v Fremantle
10 June, Gabba
Brisbane are bottom of the ladder and has not won since Round 1, while Fremantle dropped an important home game against Collingwood. Brisbane’s had a week off and see this as a genuine opportunity to get a win. Dayne Beams and Zorko have been great all year and Blakely probably gets Beams. This is a must win for the Dockers if they want to play finals. They were smashed in clearances and severely missed Sandilands last week. They fought all game but the Pies had the answers. Mundy will be looking to bounce back, while Fyfe is willing himself, but his usual clean hands aren’t at the standard we are used to. Walters is their most dangerous forward and midfielder at the moment. The start is critical in this game as Fremantle keeps giving teams head starts. Brisbane jumped the Suns and Dogs earlier this year and they will be planning an early assault on the Dockers.
Stadium Record
Brisbane’s home record keeps getting worse. They have lost 12 of their last 13 there. Fremantle quite like the big road trip. They have won their last four at the Gabba.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle has won the last 9 against the Lions. They beat them by 83 points last year.
Best Bet
Brisbane to win first quarter $2.43.
Essendon v Port Adelaide
10 June, Etihad Stadium
The Bombers challenged the premiership favourites last week, while Port dismantled the Hawks. Essendon is part of the logjam in the middle of the table. They are 5-6 and a game outside the eight. They would have been pleased to kick 15 goals, especially with Daniher only contributing one. Port dominated the Hawks early and Dixon was superb. His attack on the ball and opposition was electric and he finished the game with 4 goals. Port has beaten the sides below them all year and if they beat the Bombers they will move into the Top 4. Their big bodies in the midfield gives their diverse forward line a chance to score. Essendon will try to nullify the influence of Wines, Ebert and Power-Pepper, and then spread the ball through leg speed. Port has the pace to match Essendon with Pittard and Polec. For Essendon to win they need to stifle Port’s clearance work and their small forwards have to be dangerous.
Stadium Record
Essendon has split their last four at Etihad. Before that they lost 13 in a row there. Port has been a 50-50 proposition at Etihad in recent times. Wins and losses follow each other.
Head to Head Record
Port has won the last two. Prior to that Essendon won 5 in a row against the Power.
Best Bet
Port at the line -13.5 $1.90.
Carlton v GWS
11 June, Etihad Stadium
The Blues are coming off the bye, while the Giants are now top of the ladder after beating Essendon last week. The young Blues appreciated the break. They have been competing all year and their 3 wins so far is a pass. The resigning of young talent gives credence to the belief they are on the right path. The Giants have moved a game clear of everyone else and they have a lot of players to return later in the year. I expect Carlton to play with freedom and bring great intensity as they have nothing to lose. They could possibly be matched by a mental letdown from the Giants. They are coming off a month of intense football against good sides and this is their last match before a bye. They could subconsciously be thinking about a break. Even if GWS are a bit off I still can’t see Carlton winning. They might challenge in patches, but GWS has too much class and experience to let this slip.
Stadium Record
The Blues have lost their last four at Etihad. They are 0-3 there this year. GWS lost last time at Etihad to St Kilda. Before that they won 3 in a row.
Head to Head Record
The Giants have won the last four against Carlton. The last three have been emphatic with 62, 81 and 78 point victories.
Best Bet
GWS has been slow out of the blocks. Carlton first quarter handicap +7.5 $1.89.
Melbourne v Collingwood
12 June, MCG
The round finishes with the Queen’s Birthday clash. Melbourne is coming off a bye, while Collingwood returned victorious, yet wounded from Perth. Melbourne had a solid win last outing against the Suns. Their midfield is their strength. They have big bodies and attack the football. They also like coming off the back of the square and use Salem’s foot skills and Hunt’s speed. Collingwood’s much talked about midfield smashed the Dockers, even with Wells succumbing to another injury. They could have put Fremantle away, but their poor conversion nearly hurt them again. The Pies play their best footy when they move the ball quickly. This should be an entertaining game with both teams looking to flick the ball around off the halfback line. Collingwood’s injuries will have an impact and their forward line has taken the biggest hit without Elliott.
Stadium Record
Melbourne has lost their last four at the MCG. The margins were close with their greatest defeat only 14 points. Collingwood has won 3 of their last 4 at the MCG. They beat Hawthorn, Brisbane and Geelong.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne has won the last three against the Pies by 46, 35 and 37 points.
Best Bet
Melbourne at the line -10.5 $1.90.
Bye: Geelong, North Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
