West Coast v Sydney
13 April, Domain Stadium
West Coast are 2-1, after another MCG defeat, while Sydney are surprisingly 0-3. The Swans are missing a raft of key players and have played more youth than they would have liked, but they also have some form issues. Hannebery willed himself into the contest last week, yet Parker, Jack and Mills are still below their best. West Coast are a different team at home. They have the midfield depth to match Sydney and both ruck stocks are limited. The Eagles have more forward options, while Sydney needs Franklin to fire. Expect a determined Swans, and if West Coast can match it, they should have the experience to win.
Stadium Record
West Coast has won 7 of their last 8 at home, including a determined 19 point victory over St Kilda this year. Sydney has won 2 of their last 5 at Domain Stadium, including a 90 point thumping of Fremantle last year.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won 9 of the last 10 against the Eagles. West Coast’s only win during that time was a 52 point victory in 2015.
Best Bet
West Coast to win by 1-39 $2.10
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
14 April, Etihad Stadium
The Kangaroos and Dogs meet in this historic Good Friday match. North Melbourne has not won a game this year, but they have played well. Meanwhile the Bulldogs are 2-1 after losing to Fremantle. North has been gallant against some good opposition and have unearthed the colossal Preuss. Newly installed captain Zeibell, has taken his game to the next level. The Bulldogs intensity was off last week and the Dockers were ferocious. Hunter kept the Dogs alive early and when his teammates lifted it looked like another win, but the Dockers stormed home. Maybe an early wake up call for the Doggies. This will be a physical game, but the Bulldogs experience and skill should prevail.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 9 at Etihad, including a 23 point victory over Sydney this year. North Melbourne has lost both their games at Etihad Stadium this year to Geelong and West Coast.
Head to Head Record
The Western Bulldogs have won 2 of the last 3 between these teams. They split both their games last year and each time the margin was under three goals.
Best Bet
Dogs to win by 1-39, $2.20
Melbourne v Fremantle
15 April, MCG
Melbourne controlled the game against Geelong last week, but inaccuracy cost them as the experienced Cats found a way to win yet again. Fremantle upset the reigning premiers and were a completely different side. They had youth, dare and were relentless when they didn’t have the ball. They played for their coach and each other. Stephen Hill has been their best player this year and McCarthy is building nicely. Logue looks a likely type. Melbourne’s loss last week was further soured with the long term injury to Gawn. Watts was brave in the ruck but ran out of legs and Hunt was superb off half back. The Demons showed plenty against the Cats and if they fix their goalkicking they should win, however if the Dockers bring the heat and boldness of last week, coupled with Melbourne’s injuries and suspensions, it could be interesting.
Stadium Record
In recent times Melbourne has been a 50-50 proposition at the MCG. They beat Carlton there in Round 2 this year. Fremantle lost their only game at the MCG last season to Collingwood by 48 points. Before that they won 3 in a row.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne beat Fremantle by 32 points last year. Before that Fremantle won 7 in a row by an average of eleven goals.
Best Bet
Melbourne to win by 1-39 $2.10
GWS v Port Adelaide
15 April, UNSW Canberra Oval
Both these teams are 2-1 and playing some good footy. The Giants had their first win in Tasmania and all the talk about Kelly’s future had no impact. He was sensational with his run and piercing left foot. Another key midfielder, Shiel, put any contract talk to bed by resigning with the Giants during the week. Port started strongly and took it up to their crosstown rivals but in the end lost an enthralling contest. Unfortunately Ryder’s suspension will hurt and while the midfield are offering plenty of momentum and hardness from the likes of Wines, the Giants all-round game and overall talent should get the job done. Griffen is out for a couple of months, but his loss will not have the same impact as Ryder’s.
Stadium Record
The Giants have won 5 of their last 6 in Canberra by an average winning margin of 10 goals. Port Adelaide had a nightmare in the national’s capital last year. They lost by 86 points.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last two between these teams. They beat Port Adelaide by 19 and 86 points last year.
Best Bet
GWS -23.5 $1.90
Carlton v Gold Coast
15 April, Etihad Stadium
These teams are both coming off wins. Carlton out-slogged the Bombers in the wet, while Gold Coast smashed the Hawks. Murphy has led his team well this year and half back flankers Docherty and Simpson offer rebound. Rowe was miserly and will have a big job on Lynch. The Suns were electric. Ablett, Swallow and Hall led the charge and Matera’s six goals was a welcome return. They showed exactly what they are capable of. Can they back it up? Who knows. They definitely have the talent, but they are historically not a great traveling team. The young Blues might be tired from the heavy conditions from last week. Carlton have shown a propensity to compete, while the Suns inconsistency is a worry.
Stadium Record
Carlton won 3 of their 7 games at Etihad Stadium last year. Gold Coast has lost their last 5 at Etihad and their overall record is not much better. They have 2 wins from 13 matches.
Head to Head Record
The Blues have won 3 of the last 5 against the Suns, however Gold Coast prevailed last year by 54 points at Merticon Stadium.
Best Bet
Gold Coast to win $1.74.
Adelaide v Essendon
15 April, Adelaide Oval
The Crows are flying, on top of the ladder after three impressive wins, while the Bombers suffered a surprise loss to Carlton. Sloane is just a marvel. He is hard, brave, keeps running and lifts in the big moments. Likely forward McGovern, is out and he joins fellow tall forward Jenkins on the sidelines. Essendon were out worked last week and I’m not sure how their form stacks up. Their Round 1 win over the Hawks has now been put into perspective, and their other games were against Carlton and Brisbane. Daniher needs help up forward. The opposition know he is the focal point and watch the Crows flock towards him. From there expect the likes of Laird and Smith to bounce out of defence. The Crows in Adelaide is arguably the hardest task in footy at the moment.
Stadium Record
Adelaide has won 90% of their last 20 games at the Adelaide Oval. Essendon has only played at the Adelaide Oval 3 times, for 1 win.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won the last two against Essendon by a combined 194 points. Last year the Crows beat the Bombers by 82 points.
Best Bet
Adelaide has been strong in the second half. Third quarter handicap of -8.5 $1.82
Collingwood v St Kilda
16 April, Etihad Stadium
The Pies held on in a 1 point thriller against the Swans, while St Kilda beat a plucky Brisbane. The Magpies jumped out of the blocks and were led by their experienced midfielders. There was a collective effort to chase, tackle and harass the Swans. The Pies were again wasteful at times in front of goal, but at least they are creating opportunities. Elliott returns after one practice match in over twelve months. St Kilda did as expected by beating Brisbane. Riewoldt is an amazing footballer. His athleticism and work rate is outstanding, and his marking is still strong. Collingwood has the midfield stars, while St Kilda has youth and speed. Both teams base their game around defensive pressure. This should be a fascinating game and I’m leaning towards the Saints simply because it’s played at Etihad.
Stadium Record
Collingwood’s last game at Etihad was a 71 point victory over Gold Coast. Before that they lost 6 in a row there. St Kilda has a recent winning rate of 75% at Etihad Stadium.
Head to Head Record
St Kilda won last year’s contest by 29 points. That victory ended a 7 game losing streak to the Magpies that stemmed back to the drawn 2010 Grand Final.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $2.05
Brisbane v Richmond
16 April, Gabba
Brisbane has been in all their games this year, while Richmond had their best win of the season against the Eagles last week. In Round 1 Brisbane lead by seven goals and won by 2 points. The two previous weeks they gave up big leads and fought back to hit the front, but ultimately lost both games. The inconsistency is typical of a young side. Richmond made the most of their opportunities the last two weeks and are undefeated. Martin is almost unstoppable at the moment. He is powerful, penetrating and dangerous when in the forward line. His form is overshadowing Cotchin’s performances, Vlastuin’s improvement and Nankervis’ acquisition. Richmond should win, but Brisbane won’t roll over.
Stadium Record
Brisbane has lost 9 of their last 10 games at the Gabba. Their only victory during that time was 4 point win over Carlton last year. Richmond has won their last 7 at the Gabba. Their last lost there was against the mighty Brisbane Lions in 2004.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has won the last 9 against Brisbane by an average winning margin of six goals. The Tigers beat the Lions by 42 points in their only encounter last year.
Best Bet
Richmond -16.5 $1.90
Hawthorn v Geelong
17 April, MCG
The huge Easter round finishes with the next instalment of Hawthorn v Geelong. Unlike previous battles there is an air of uncertainty around the Hawks. They are last on the ladder, they lacked intensity last week and their leg speed and ball movement looks sluggish. Maybe their modern day rivals will bring the best out of them. Geelong are only just going even though they are undefeated. They escaped again last week with Dangerfield and Selwood leading the way once more. Geelong has the midfield edge against the Hawks. Frawley will take Hawkins, while Gibson looks undersized for Taylor and not agile enough for Menzel. Mackie’s played on Breust in the past and done well, while Guthrie could take Rioli as he did in Round 1 last year. Winning form is better than losing form, but expect a hungry Hawks to take it up to Geelong.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn has played twice at the MCG this year for two losses against Essendon and Adelaide. This is Geelong’s first game at the MCG this year. Last season they won 4 of their 6 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Geelong won both encounters last year, including the 2 point qualifying final win when Isaac Smith missed the goal after the siren. Before that Hawthorn won 4 in a row.
Best Bet
Geelong 1-39, $2.20.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
