Rugby League Test
New Zelanad v Australia
Saturday 13 October 2018
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
After the most dramatic grand final week in recent memory, rugby league fans have more to look forward to with the end of year international fixtures right around the corner. On Saturday, the Kangaroos meet the Kiwis at Mt Smart Stadium in what shapes as the start of a new era for both of these teams. The trans-Tasman rivals haven’t met yet this year, and there are a host of new and exciting faces set to do battle this weekend. The Australians consistently start favourites in this clash, but the unknowns in the green and gold, particularly through the spine, will ensure this Test match is more difficult to predict than most.
The representative retirements of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Jonathan Thurston and Billy Slater means that this Australian team is unfamiliar to most fans. Further to the big four being out of the picture, the unavailability of Greg Inglis and Michael Morgan means that this is indeed a very new look team, particularly at the leadership level. Likely five-eighth options James Maloney and Cameron Munster are also unavailable, so Mal Meninga had to consider all of his options before naming his team this week. Some of the new players picked themselves, but there are a couple of surprise inclusions. Damien Cook and James Tedesco were certain selections after their State of Origin performances and club form, and thoroughly deserve their spots. Daly Cherry-Evans’ five star Origin 3 display has rightly earnt him a crack at the vacant number 7, while a stunning Clive Churchill Medal winning performance in the grand final has seen Luke Keary jump into the famous green and gold number 6. This is an untested, albeit in-form spine combination, so there are clearly some unknowns in terms of how this unit hits the ground running. It will surely be an area the Kiwis will target for some early attention by their big forwards.
Elsewhere in the backline, Latrell Mitchell and Valentine Holmes were must picks on the left, while Meninga has chosen to slot Tom Trbojevic into the centres inside Dane Gagai, a decision that rasied a couple of eyebrows given their experience in the opposite positions. Meninga loves the go forward that Gagai provides early in sets, and clearly Trbojevic has the ability to ball play from centre, so it may not be as left field a selection as pundits first thought. Jordan McLean is the bolter in the pack, starting up front alongside David Klemmer in a huge show of confidence from the coach. Skipper Boyd Cordner is alongside Felise Kaufusi and Josh McGuire, and the two Queenslanders could consider themselves a little lucky to be starting ahead of benchmen Tyson Frizell and Jake Trbojevic. All four will see big minutes, though, and Frizell can be particularly useful as an impact player against tired legs. Ben Hunt wins the utility role, and it will be interesting to see how much game time he gets behind Cook. It is likely he will give Cook a spell early in the second half, with Cook coming back on at the end of the game to terrorise the Kiwis around the ruck. Aaron Woods should buy a lottery ticket after finding himself in the 17, especially with Origin prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard left out. He would want to make the most of this surprising opportunity.
For the Kiwis, Michael McGuire has named a very different looking team to the one that met the English in Denver earlier in the year, with only 8 players retained from the 17. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is the new skipper and fullback, replacing the unavailable Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Storm rake Brandon Smith debuts at hooker, while Shaun Johnson shifts into the number 6 to accommodate Kodi Nikorima at halfback. Like the Aussies, this is a new look spine, and may be clunky to begin the game. There are some real strengths in the backline, with Joseph Manu finishing the season in outstanding form and Jordan Rapana and Ken Maumalo a couple of pure finishers. Up front, there will be some big bodies confronting the Australians, with Jesse Bromwich and Jared Warea-Hargreaves starting and Martin Taupau and Adam Blair coming off the bench. The backrow looks dynamic, and we should see a great battle between the edge players of each pack. This is Kiwi team that is new, bold, and has the potential to unsettle the Aussies.
With so many changes to the teams we have been accustomed to over the last five years, it is difficult to get a read on form heading into this one. Certainly both teams bring some very in-form players into their lineups, with the Kangaroos having a slight advantage in that 3 of their spine went deep into the finals in outstanding form. The unknown is how quickly Cherry-Evans can gel with his new teammates, but given the way he came back into the Queensland team for game 3 this year, and his display in the PM’s XIII game against PNG, he is well up to the task. The Kiwis will be targeting the middle third of the field as a place of strength for them, and their big boppers will know they have a responsibility to get their lightning halves on the front foot early. We have seen Nikorima struggle when playing behind a beaten pack, but also thrive when going forward, so the performance of the pack will be crucial. It’s hard to ignore the class dotted through the Kangaroos team, and if this one goes close they have a number of proven match winners in the important positions. If their pack can hold up, they should have the key players to get the job done.
As we have come to expect, the Aussies will start strong favourites despite being away from home, paying $1.36 to the Kiwis’ $3.15. There is some value there for New Zealand if you think there are too many unknowns in the Kangaroos line-up, but we think the Aussies will be too strong in the end. Australia to win both halves at $2.50 is our best bet of the week.
Head to Head
New Zealand $3.15
Australia $1.36
For the latest Rugby League Test Markets, click here.
Enjoy your footy!
