State of Origin Game 3
Queensland v New South Wales
8pm Wednesday 11 July 2018 - Suncorp Stadium
The NSW Blues have claimed the State of Origin shield for 2018, wrapping up the series in two games to finally put an end to the Queensland dynasty. Before we put this series to bed, though, we return to Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday night for game 3, a game both teams will be targeting, for very different reasons.
Where has this series been won and lost for both teams? In game 1, the Blues were simply too fast for the overwhelmed Queenslanders, with the lightning quick Damien Cook and James Tedesco carving the Maroons up the middle. Despite trailing the Maroons early in the second half, the Blues always looked in control, and the killer blows were landed out wide by rookies Latrell Mitchell and Josh Addo-Carr. For all money, the Blues looked like they would be far too good this year for the rebuilding Maroons.
In game 2, though, the return of Billy Slater sparked the Queenslanders, and the injection of Kalyn Ponga almost stole them the win. The Maroons looked sharp early, beating the Blues around the outside multiple times in the first half. Despite the early dominance, they trailed the Blues into halftime, and when the opportunities presented themselves down the stretch to grab the win, the Maroons halves weren’t good enough to take advantage. The Blues did a Queensland on the Queenslanders, nailing a win despite not necessarily being the most dangerous team all night. The series was theirs, and we now head to Brisbane for the dead rubber, knowing the players will be treating it as anything but.
NSW have not completed a clean sweep of a series since 2000, a long time to wait for a state with the vast majority of available players. Brad Fittler knows how rare the feat is, highlighted by the fact that during their streak of 11 series wins in 12 years, the most dominant team in Origin history only managed one clean sweep. The Maroons will have their own motivation though. Not only will they be desperate to avoid being on the end of a whitewash, they will also want to send their retiring hero, Billy Slater, off a winner. Slater draws equal with the great Wally Lewis on 31 games for Queensland on Wednesday night, and he will rightly go down as the greatest fullback to have ever played the game. A win in his final game in maroon would be a perfect send off.
There will be no time for sentimentality after kick off, though. NSW have made just the one change to their series clinching team from Sydney, with Matt Prior dropped to give Tariq Sims his first opportunity in sky blue. Sims has been in and around the squad for a number of years, and finally gets his chance to stake a claim for a bench spot for the next few years. His club form has been outstanding this year, and though it is disappointing for Prior, it is difficult to blame Fittler for having one eye on the future in this match. While it has been a relatively settled preparation south of the Tweed, it has been anything but in Queensland. Ben Hunt’s failure to ice game 2 has cost him the number 7 jumper, with the much maligned Daly Cherry-Evans recalled to steer the ship. The Maroons have also lost skipper Greg Inglis, young Kaylyn Ponga and big Dylan Napa to injury, so have been forced to shuffle both their pack and their backline. In comes Corey Oates, unlucky not to already be in the team, and Melbourne’s Tim Glasby, with Dane Gagai shifting into the centres and Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii moving into the front row.
The most talked about selection, though, is surely the recall of Cherry-Evans. This game is a huge opportunity for him, but it is not as make-or-break as some are suggesting. Admittedly, a poor performance will make it very difficult for selectors to consider him again, but game 1 2019 is a long way away, and selector Darren Lockyer admitted this week that the discussion next year would include DCE, Ash Taylor and Michael Morgan. Put simply, Cherry-Evans just needs to be solid, not spectacular, to do his job. The reason he is there is because the Maroons had no polish to the end of their sets, and no general that was steering them around. This has never been a strength of Hunt’s game, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone that he couldn’t do the job at Origin level. Cherry-Evans has runners and strike players all around him, so if he can get them to the right position on the field, and finish their sets with authority, his selection will have been a success. If he tries to force his hand, as he has done occasionally in previous appearances, he will stifle the men outside him. His selection also means we should expect Cameron Munster’s best game of the series, as he is freed from the shackles to run and create havoc as only he can.
The Blues, on the other hand, will simply be looking for more of the same. They will know there will be periods when the Maroons’ attack will come in waves, but they will back themselves to hang in the fight and land the killer blow when they have to. Nathan Cleary has been quiet so far in this series, so expect him to play with a little more freedom in this one, while James Roberts will be looking forward to not having to run at Greg Inglis this time. The forwards will like the look of the smallish Queensland pack, so the likes of David Klemmer and Paul Vaughan will look to establish some dominance in the middle third. This has been James Maloney’s team, however, so the five-eighth will again have his hands over everything NSW do. Sensing their chance to write the names in the history books, this classy Blues team will be very difficult to stop.
The Blues go into this one as strong favourites at $1.68, and with the series wrapped up and the Queenslanders struggling with key injuries, it’s difficult to argue. Don’t underestimate the Maroons’ ability to bounce back in a dead rubber, though, particularly at Suncorp Stadium. The last two times they have faced a whitewash, they won 32-8 and 36-6, and we know how much they will want to do it for Billy. Given their dominance for long stretches in game 2, and the advantage of playing at home, $2.20 looks good value for a Maroons win. This is sure to be a cracking end to a history making series.
