The Everest 2020 – Runner By Runner Preview | BlueBet

THE EVEREST 2020 RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW

OVERVIEW

The 4^th edition of the richest race on turf, the Everest, will be run and won on Saturday and another strong field of elite sprinters has been assembled as they race for a share in the whopping $15 million in prizemoney. The rail goes back to the true and with a relatively benign forecast, expect to be racing on a good track.

SPEED MAP

Our speed map see’s Dollar For Dollar holding out Nature Strip from gate 1, at least for the first 100 metres. Whether or not James McDonald rolls forward on the chestnut to find the rail is up in the air. There’s a little bit of pressure from out wide with Eduardo and Bivouac both looking to push into forward positions. Haut Brion Her has natural speed but as the stablemate of the favourite, expect her to hand up here and race behind lead. Classique Legend and Gytrash both look to find handy running line positions midfield, settling outside Trekking and Behemoth. Tofane and Libertini look the big losers from the draw and most likely have to head back from wide gates. Santa Ana Lane has no early speed and will be ridden for one last crack at them. 1.NATURE STRIP ($4.20) James McDonald/Chris Waller Slot Holder: TAB Current worlds highest rated sprinter and long-time favourite for this race, Nature Strip was displaced from the top of markets a fortnight ago after his colours were lowered by rivals Libertini and Classique Legend in the Group 2 Premiere (1200). Has been well backed post barrier-draw from $6-$4.20 with BlueBet and has again made his way to the top of the market. It’s been an indifferent prep from him. Ran well 1^st up in the Concorde where he was run over late by Gytrash over the 1000m. He did start $1.45 that day. He then suffered a little setback when throwing James McDonald one morning at the trials. Ordered to trial again before arriving 2^nd up in the Premiere where he was $1.80-$2.30, and beaten quite convincingly it must be said by a widening 4 lengths. There might have been an excuse, with a significant wind presence that day at Randwick that made it hard for leaders (only one leader won on the day). Even accounting for that I still think there’s a bit of a question mark on how well he’s going this prep. Does he need complete control to perform at his best? Is he better with a bit of sting out of the ground? Perhaps. Dollar For Dollar gaining a start certainly adds nuisance factor to him here so it will be interesting to see what tactics J-Mac adopts. There is no doubting that at his best he’s the best horse in the race, but with the question marks on his interrupted prep and at the price I’m happy to look past him. 2.TREKKING ($16) Joshua Parr/James Cummings Slot Holder: Max Whitby Last year’s third place-getter Trekking is back in 2020 for a second tilt at the Everest for team Godolphin and will race in the slot owned by Max Whitby. Comes into the race 2^nd up off a very credible run in the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley where he ran 2^nd to the winner Pippie. In what was a fast run race, he ran the quickest 400-200m sectional of the race, before knocking up late with the 5^th quickest final furlong. That suggests that he may have just knocked up a little and should take good improvement heading into the Everest. He’s a horse that’s very hard to knock. Has a great 2^nd up record, is suited to good tracks and has only missed a place once from 5 starts this course and distance. Couple those factors with the fact that he can perform off strong tempos, he’s certainly a chance in a race like this where he looks to get a race pattern to suit. Would have preferred him drawn out a touch as he may need luck but he’s a great chance of finishing first half and even sneaking into a place. 3. CLASSIQUE LEGEND ($4.40) Kerrin McEvoy/Les Bridge Slot Holder: Bon Ho The grey Classique Legend is another runner returning in 2020 looking to better his 6^th place finish in 2019 where he had no luck. Has long had a boom on him this horse for the freak trainer Les Bridge and looks to have come back a stronger horse this time around with two very good runs this preparation. Overcame difficulties to salute first up in The Shorts (1100m) unleashing a devastating turn of foot to savage the line and down key rivals here in Bivouac and Eduardo. He found the right lane on the day but ran the 2^nd quickest last 600/400/200m of the meeting. In my opinion was unlucky 2^nd up in the Premiere when caught wide facing the breeze. Trucked up the rise only to be run over late by Libertini who had the suck run coming off his back. Even though the margin was decisive there, swap the runs and I think the result may have been different. Market was in love with him that day also $3.50-$2.50 late which says he’s flying and he looks to map for a great running line position not too far away. You only have to look at this race last year to be confident that he’s up to them. He finishes much closer with any luck. I think he’s good enough to absorb the fast tempo and has the turn of foot to be in the finish. This is the grand final so I’m expecting him to be cherry ripe and with the potential to rate right up. On top. 4. SANTA ANA LANE ($26) Sam Clipperton/Anthony & Sam Freedman Slot Holder: Coolmore The old boy Santa Ana Lane returns for his third crack at the Everest this year off a runner-up placing behind Yes Yes Yes in 2019. The rising 8 year-old returned to racing in the Gilgai (1200m) down the straight at Flemington where he was just fair in behind Tofane and Dollar For Dollar. Reports were that he paraded great that day, you’d have to think potentially due to the fact that the camp were looking to chase a slot with a big performance 1^st up. They secured the slot regardless a few days earlier so it will be interesting to see how he parades on Saturday. Is there further improvement to come? Regardless, the figure he returned 1^st up is very comparable to past preparations. He bounced through those runs to finish 2^nd in last year’s Everest and this year’s TJ Smith so there may be life in the old legs yet. Needs pace on due to his racing pattern but could get out to a ridiculous price here late. If they can make ground you could do worse than have something on/save at $41+. 5. BEHEMOTH ($9.00) Nash Rawiller/David Jolly Slot Holder: The Star The big horse Behemoth gets his chance in the Everest thanks to a fantastic spring campaign where he’s put up the picket fence with three on the trot wins, the latest both at Group 1 level in the Memsie (1400m) and Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m). A 6k buy for Grand Syndicates, he brings a little bit of the fairytale narrative into this year’s race. It’s hard to fault him however, with both of those Group 1 wins coming in dominant fashion. He’s showcased that he’s tactically versatile, can do it off slow or fast tempos, and that he has the ability to overcome trouble in the run like he did in the Sir Rupert Clarke. Was held up down the running until finding a gap late and sprinting sharply to record a last 200m of 11.40 (10^th quickest of day). Untested at this trip against this opposition but he ran a huge race in this year’s Goodwood where he got back off a slow tempo to record the best closing sectionals of the race behind Trekking and Gytrash. I think he’s improved since then and don’t mind the 4 weeks between runs stepping back in trip. Will need a gap at the right time from this draw but with Nash Rawiller aboard he’s right in the ball game. 6. BIVOUAC ($18) Glen Boss/James Cummings Slot Holder: Godolphin Touted as an Everest contender last year in his 3 year-old season, Godolphin opted for the Coolmore path instead and he now finds himself in the race 12 months later. Chosen in the Godolphin slot, you’d have to think that they regard him as their number 1 seed. Runs Saturday 4 weeks between runs after a 3^rd placing in The Shorts (1100m) 1^st up behind Classique Legend (SP’ed $5 v CL $4.40). Was trapped wide that day however that was on a slow tempo so he did seem to have his chance. Trialed since that run last Friday over 800m where he produced a strong piece of work recording the quickest final 400m of the heats run that morning. Despite the fact he looks primed to run well on Saturday, he’s hard to come into for me. Looking at his best wins (Golden Rose/Newmarket) they tend to come off slow/moderate tempos where he’s been able to dictate with races run to suit. He won’t get that race shape on Saturday and especially from the draw, where he could be caught deep early, I’m happy to let him go around without me. 7. GYTRASH ($6.00) Jason Collett/Gordon Richards Slot Holder: Inglis Sitting on the third line of betting for South Australian trainer Gordon Richards and Jason Collett is the 5 year-old gelding Gytrash. Ultra-consistent is this galloper who boasts an almost 50% winning strike rate from 20 starts where he has raced against elite company. Perhaps always thought of as a solid Group 2 sprinter, this horse has come of age in his last two preparations winning a G1 Lightning and placing in G1’s the Newmarket, William Reid and Goodwood. Adapted to the Sydney way of going with ease with a huge 1^st up win in the Concorde (1000m) where he knocked over Nature Strip and returned a huge figure (16 lengths above the 1000m Randwick benchmark). Loved his strength through the line there and love the fact that this horse seems to perform at his best when the speed is on. Is 6 weeks between runs but this horse performs at its best fresh, and with this race having been the target from a long way out I’ll trust the camp to have him peaking Saturday. Has drawn a nice gate here for in form hoop Jason Collett and with an economical run, expecting him to be right in the finish. 8. EDUARDO ($26) Rachel King/Joe Pride Slot Holder: miRunners With Rothfire going amiss in the Golden Rose miRunners have selected the Joe Pride trained Eduardo in their slot for 2020. Sensational training performance to get this horse back to near his best after showing early promise in Melbourne. Has had three runs this prep for two wins (on his favoured rain-affected tracks) and then ran a credible 2^nd in one of the key lead-up races The Shorts (1100m). Showed his typical fight there but on relative starting prices, along with the fact that he is unlikely to find the lead, which is where he races best, I don’t think he’s a winning chance in the race. 9. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR ($81) Tim Clark/Tony & Calvin McEvoy Slot Holder: Aquis 11^th hour call up to the race for the McEvoy team trained Dollar For Dollar after the withdrawal of the reigning slipper winner in Farnan. Honest horse who’s had a decent campaign this time in with runner up placings in the Sir Rupert Clarke and the Gilgai. That ties it into a few runners here. Despite this, it faces a huge task here having to eyeball Nature Strip on a good speed. Couple that with the fact that it’s never been to Randwick, and its last win came over two years ago, hard to see it featuring. 10. TOFANE ($21) Tommy Berry/Michael Moroney Slot Holder: Yulong Very interesting runner is Tofane who brings the Melbourne form line through the Gilgai. She started a dominant $3.30 favourite there and was held up for a run the majority of the straight. Still recorded the fastest last 200m sectional of the race and looked like she had more to give. Will be third up on Saturday, in which she has a peak career figure last preparation when she was just touched off in the G1 Galaxy (1100m) at Rosehill. Her run subsequent to that in the TJ Smith was also very good, getting back and wide off a moderate tempo to savage the line in race best closing sectionals (beating home Bivouac and Trekking). Crippling draw for her as it looks like Tommy Berry will have to go right back and hope for a solid tempo, which she should good, however giving starts to Classique Legend and Gytrash just might be too much of an ask. Best Roughie. 11. LIBERTINI ($7.50) Regan Bayliss/Anthony Cummings Slot Holder: James Harron What a return from Libertini 1^st up in the Premiere that almost immediately cemented her position in the Everest for 2020. She has always been a filly with good ability, racing well through the Princess series as a 3 year-old before running 3^rd to boom colts Exceedance and Bivouac in last year’s Coolmore. Seemed to lose her way after that, but on the back of two sharp trials she was sensational 1^st up running very strong time at the Randwick 1200m. I think it has to be said that the race was a perfect storm for her. She got good cover off a moderate tempo, was able to stalk Classique Legend up the rise (getting cover from the wind) and then launch late to record a very strong last 400m. The overall figure she returned was almost identical to what she produced first up in the Silver Shadow going back a preparation. Of most concern for her admirers, was that 2 weeks later in her 2^nd up run, she rated 4 lengths down on the 1^st up effort. Simply put, it can be very hard for horses to recreate or better such a good run after such a huge exertion 1^st up. So if history tells us anything, I’m predicting a similar step back in the Everest. Of course, she may just have come back better and bounce through the run, but along with a poor draw on Saturday, I have her marked more of an $11 chance. 12. HAUT BRION HER ($26) Brenton Avdulla/Chris Waller Slot Holder: Three Bridges Thoroughbreds Very capable mare on her day who returned this preparation with a very strong win in the Sheraco over the 1200m at Rosehill. Stepped to the 1400m in the Golden Pendant where she started a dominant $2.20 favourite only to do too much work in the run and eventually get run over late. Back to the 1200 here looks a tick but hard to place seeing as this is the stiffest test to date in her short career. Does have a close 2^nd placing to Tofane earlier in her career. Is a course and distance winner but looks tested in this, especially on the map where she looks to land leaders back and inside horses. Not sure that is the best spot for her to produce her best. Runs well but not up to them.

PICKS:

1. CLASSIQUE LEGEND 2. GYTRASH 3. BEHEMOTH 4. TOFANE This year’s Everest once again looks an intriguing edition with no clear standout ensuring a spirited betting market. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of runners specked away at here and I think the track pattern on the day will be crucial in the eventual make-up of the race. With that said, siding with the grey in Classique Legend who looks primed for this event 3^rd up off two very strong runs. Set for the race, and with a favourable map and race shape he should be in the finish. Think his biggest danger comes in the form of Gytrash who also maps great. Likely to lob midfield also and love this horses ability to finish off on strong tempos. Gets his chance. Like the set-up for Behemoth next who is flying. Slight freshen 1400-1200m was the formula used by last year’s winner and that should hold him in good stead. Will need luck from the gate but can feature. Tofane best of the rest. Good luck punters!