Melbourne Cup Preview

1. Snow Sky ($51): He is a quality European stayer with gun jockey Ryan Moore aboard but hasn’t been missed by the handicapper carrying topweight of 58kg.  Has got under the radar a little and sure to have some fans at current quote of $51.  Knockout hope.
2. Criterion ($13):  One of the best locally trained hopes.  Very good win in the Caulfield Stakes and then very solid behind Winx in the Cox Plate.  There is a slight question mark at the 3200m but I think he will stay and is the class runner in the field.  My top pick.
3. Fame Game ($4): His Caulfield Cup ran had a flashing light and siren on it saying back me at Flemington.  He is the shortest priced Melbourne Cup favourite since the great Makybe Diva and I am happy to let the punters on.  Deserves to be favourite but I think the market has overreacted and I will be betting the best price in Australia him.
4. Our Ivanhowe ($19): He has been very solid in all his Australian runs and kept working right to the line in running third in the Caulfield Cup.  Sure to have admirers at big odds but Melham will have a job to get him in from the wide gate.
5. Big Orange ($61):  He is a winner over the 3200m and has form around Caulfield Cup runner up Trip to Paris.  Has a bad gate but I think he is the genuine knockout chance at huge odds.  I will be keeping him safe and he wouldn’t shock me at huge odds.
6. Hartnell ($31):  Has won over two miles and has Australia/New Zealand’s best jockey, James McDonald, on board.  Run in the Cox Plate was solid and can run a race at big odds.
7. Hokko Brave ($51):  Had no favours in the Caulfield Cup when caught wide.  There was money around for him that day and Craig Williams has stuck him with.  Place chance in exoticbets probably the best for him from bad draw.
8. Max Dynamite ($13):  The great Frankie Dettori rides from the perfect draw and he is sure to be in it for a long way.  Easily beat Trip To Paris recently and getting better odds than him here.  Very good record at the distance and only concern is no run in Australia.
9. Red Cadeaux ($26):  This Pom loves it so much in Australia he is looking to retire here.  Three time runner up in this race who you simply can’t write off.  At 10yo his best days are probably behind him but you must include if you have been with him in the past.
10. Trip To Paris ($9.00):  Ground away very well in the Caulfield Cup and is second favourite here.  That run in Australia is sure to bring him on and gives him an advantage over some slightly better performed Europeans who haven’t had the benefit of the run here.  Good local jockey and strong support suggests he will there when the whips are cracking.
11. Who Shot Thebarman ($21): Chris Waller stable is flying but not sure he is going as well as he was this time last year.  Has still been going OK and happy enough to say can run in top 5 or 6 but not sure he has the class to win.
12. Sky Hunter ($31);  Lightly raced Godolphin horse who can surprise at odds.  The camp have enough experience to know how to prepare them for this race.  Will have fans at big odds.
13. The Offer ($61): Won the Bendigo Cup but not sure that form is good enough to travel the big guns here.  Gai Waterhouse/Damien Oliver combination will give it every chance though.
14. Grand Marshal ($41):  Excellent run when had no luck in the Caulfield Cup.  Certainly not the worst and the Pumper will be riding his ears off in hope of going out a winner.  Very good roughie.
15. Preferment ($13):  Excellent wins in the Hill Stakes and the Turnbull before unsuited in the Cox Plate.  Hugh Bowman is the form jockey in Australia at the moment and the stable is flying.  Slight question mark at the two miles but Flemington track should suit.
16. Quest for More ($151):  His quote of $151 looks to be around the mark.  He was well beaten in the Geelong Cup and would need to find many lengths to get near them here.
17. Almoonqith ($15): No Luck in the Metropolitan before winning the Geelong Cup well.  Gun stable and jockey make him a serious player here.  Has been well backed over the past 24 hours and one of the main chances.
18. Kingfisher ($31):  European stayer who will benefit from Lloyd William’s knowledge on how to win this race.  Aidan O”brien is one of the world’s leading trainers and sure to have supporters.
19. Prince of Penzance ($101):  Ran well in Moonee Valley Cup but this is another level and risk at 3200m.  Might give a sight but can see him getting wind burn.
20. Bondi Beach ($26):  Looks the pick of the O’Brien/Williams challengers.  Brett Prebble comes back from Hong Kong to ride and he is a genuine winning chance.  Sure to be popular with Sydney siders and New Zealanders.
21. Sertorius ($201):  Local stayer who is trying to be the little Aussie kid who could.  Don’t think he can.
22. The United States ($19):  Won the Moonee Valley Cup well but far from convinced that is the right form line here.  Happy to take him on although do respect Hickmott/Williams/Moreira combination.
23. Excess Knowledge ($31):  Did a bit of work in winning Lexus and that race has improved as a guide in recent years.  Outside gate will probably mean few favours again.  Jockey and trainer have won the race before but happy to risk here.
24. Gust Of Wind:  Got home very well in the Caulfield Cup and the step up to 3200m at Flemington should suit perfectly.  I think she has a real knockout chance and she is in my top four selections at a big price

TOP Selections: 2. Criterion, 10. Trip to Paris, 24. Gust of Wind Roughie: 5. Big Orange

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