SURROUND STAKES PREVIEW
Group 1 - 3YO Fillies - 1400m
The second of two Group 1's at Royal Randwick on Saturday, the Surround Stakes will see a strong lineup of talented fillies battle it out over the 1400m. The likes of First Seal, Dear Demi and More Joyous have all won this race on their way to autumn riches in recent times so it's no surprise to see this race elevated to Group 1 status for the first time in 2018.
Sorting through them and I think the favourite Alizee ($2.65) has to be the top pick here coming off a tradesman like performance first up in the Light Fingers (1200m) where she was able to get the job done, albeit not in the dominant fashion that many expected. Trainer James Cummings publicly stated that this girl can take a bit of work to get fit and if she was vulnerable at all it would have been first up, so the fact that she was able to win only adds merit to the performance. Being a big, strong filly, I think she can only strip fitter here and with natural improvement she can continue on her path to a possible start in the Doncaster, for which she is a live $12 chance. If there's a concern at all, it looks to be where she gets too in the run with Glyn Schofield having to make a decision whether to press forward or ease back from the wide draw. I think if she can slot in one off the fence, three or four pairs back, then Glyn can produce her at the top of the straight and she just looks to have too big a motor for her rivals here.
The obvious danger to the favourite is the filly from the Waterhouse and Bott yard Shumookh, who has been extremely well supported since markets first went up on Wednesday firming from $6.00 all the way into the current quote of $3.90. Still in her first preparation, this daughter of Dream Ahead has done nothing wrong in her three career starts having won with authority on debut before being beaten by two very handy ones in D'Argento and Alizee in the Light Fingers. There was market support to say she'd beat Alizee a fortnight ago and you could argue she should have after having absolutely no luck in the run being forced to race three wide the trip. She had every right to lay down with the run she had but continued to fight all the way to the line to only go down by a head. Drawn gate 1 on Saturday so Tim Clark should be able to lead quite comfortably and with not a whole lot of pressure expected she'll be the one they have to get past topping the rise. Not sure that she has the same improvement to come as Alizee but if it's hard to make ground then she's the one you want to be with.
Torvill ($16) looks to have come back in exceptional order for Clarry Conners after really catching the eye at the trials and running a beauty first up to run third in behind our top two selections Alizee and Shumookh. She recorded the fastest last 200m sectional (12.17) of that race to really savage the line and give the impression that she's looking for the 1400m. Was a winner over this course and distance last preparation so she can definitely find her way into the money here.
Throwing Shoals ($11) in for fourth who was simply too bad to be true first up at Caulfield in the Kevin Hayes (1200m). This filly took all before her in the spring winning the Myer Classic on Derby Day as well as running second to Aloisia in the Thousand Guineas (beating home Alizee). Like the fact that Michael Freedman has given her three weeks off to get over the first up run and her trial in the interim was solid enough. Has won at Randwick before and with a cushy run just in behind the speed, a return to her best form would see her in the finish.
TIPS
1. Alizee ($2.65)
2. Shumookh ($3.90)
3. Torvill ($16)
4. Shoals ($10)
For the latest Surround Stakes betting odds, click here.
