2024 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions
As the AFL season charges into Round 6, anticipation is at an all time high as teams battle for a top 8 position. Here's our AFL Round 6 betting preview, which starts with a crucial matchup between the Saints and Dogs at Marvel.
St Kilda Saints (12th) vs Western Bulldogs (11th)
St Kilda came back strong with six straight goals against Greater Western Sydney, but they knew they dug themselves too big a hole, ending up with their third close loss this season. The Saints are now 2-3 and gotta start bagging more wins against teams in the same boat to keep up with the top eight. Which makes this matchup against the Dogs even more crucial
The Dogs blew their chances and got wrecked by Essendon, ending in a pretty embarrissing loss. They've got a golden chance to bounce back against another team shooting for the top eight, maybe even settling the debate on whether they're gunning for finals or just building for the future this year.
7 of St Kilda's last 8 matches at Marvel Stadium have seen the Under salute and I'm hoping for a low-scoring contest again.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 3-2 in their last 5 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 4-3 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (14th) vs Essendon Bombers (9th)
Adelaide finally broke their losing streak, snagging a thrilling win against Carlton. They even looked slicker on the field, hitting the 100-point mark for the first time this season. But after an 0-4 start, they've got no room for slip-ups this week and must win this home game.
It's been a wild ride for Essendon, keeping up with the Western Bulldogs and then blowing past them in a crazy final quarter, right after getting smacked by Port Adelaide. After their win-loss-win-loss-win pattern, the Bombers are itching for some consistency along with another win, especially since they've won the last six matches against the Crows.
Essendon has dominated in the last six matchups against Adelaide. Additionally, the underdog has covered the spread in eight out of Adelaide's last ten night games.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-4 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 6-0 against the Crows since 2018.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (13th) vs Port Adelaide Power (3rd)
Collingwood got a breather with the bye after a rocky start to their premiership defence, losing three games before finally finding their groove with two wins in a row. They haven't hit their peak like the last couple of seasons, but they've still got the firepower to shake things up, especially against a top-four team like Port Adelaide on their home turf.
Port Adelaide has cruised through the games they were expected to win this season, although they only just scraped past Fremantle at home last week. Now, they've gotta step up against the top dogs to prove they're the real deal. Playing against the reigning champs, who've been struggling this season, might just be the perfect chance for them to make a statement.
In the last 12 matchups between Collingwood and Port Adelaide, the favourite has always come out on top. Also, Collingwood has beaten the spread in their last four matches against Port Adelaide at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Port Adelaide are 5-4 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-2 against the Power in the last 5.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (6th) vs GWS Giants (1st)
Carlton's luck finally ran out when they lost to Adelaide after winning their last six nail-biting matches. That defeat brought them back down to earth after their crazy streak of close wins. Now, we're gonna see where they stand, with this game kicking off a tough stretch against top four teams.
GWS got a bit too comfortable too early against St Kilda, almost paying the price until the clock saved them. But they also had some key players like Sam Taylor and Stephen Coniglio go down with injuries, leaving them short-handed. Now, they're gearing up for a showdown against Carlton and might just enjoy the underdog tag despite sitting atop the ladder.
GWS is 8-4 against the Over in their last 12 and good conditions under the roof should see a high-scoring contest.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. GWS are 4-5 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues hold a 3-2 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (10th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)
Brisbane's turning things around after a rough 0-3 start, smashing their MCG curse with a solid win against Melbourne last week. They still gotta fine-tune some stuff, especially in their attack, but now they've got a chance to do that back home and start rebuilding their fortress at the Gabba.
Geelong's facing their toughest challenge yet after cruising through games against weaker teams in their unbeaten start to the season. Now they gotta step up their game every week, starting with this match against the Lions, which kicks off a tough run.
The Cats have secured victories in their last five matches, leading in every quarter. They have the wood over the Lions lately too and Brisbane has struggled at the Gabba this season.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Geelong are 0-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Cats are 6-3 against the Lions.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Fremantle Dockers (7th)
West Coast hasn't had much to cheer about lately, but they'll be buzzing after a big win against Richmond heading into the Derby. Their solid victory was a mix of old and new, hinting that they might give the Dockers a run for their money for the first time in a while.
Fremantle started strong this season but have stumbled with a couple of close losses and their scoring has dried up lately with only nine goals in each of their last three games. The Eagles might not be as easy to beat as before, but the Dockers are still gunning to match their longest winning streak of six in the derby by taking down their local rivals once again.
Fremantle has seen six of their last seven matches stay below the total match points line so I like the chances of a low scoring contest.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. Fremantle are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Perth Stadium.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (4th) vs Gold Coast Suns (8th)
Sydney kicked off the season like a rocket but stumbled into the bye week with a surprise loss to Richmond and a nail-biter against West Coast, barely sealing the deal in the final quarter. But with some fresh legs, the Swans are gearing up to take on the Suns, who aren't afraid to step onto the SCG turf. Brodie Grundy will celebrate game 200 and his matchup against Witts in the middle will be key.
Gold Coast has been playing well lately, especially with their up-and-coming talent, but they're itching to prove themselves against a top team. They haven't nabbed an away win yet this season, but they can look to their decent track record at the SCG, with three wins in their last five matches against the Swans there.
Five out of the last six day games for Gold Coast have seen the Over salute and the smaller SCG should see the Over get up.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the SCG. Gold Coast are 2-1 at the SCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (17th)
North Melbourne has had another tough start to the season, even though they've been lingering near the bottom for the past few years. But they can't make excuses, especially when facing Hawthorn, who's also struggling. The Kangaroos haven't exactly been defensive juggernauts, but they might catch a break against the Hawks, who've been having trouble putting points on the board - it's a showdown between the last two teams without a win.
It's also been a tough start for the Hawks as they sit 2nd last on the ladder. Their performance against the Suns on Saturday night was another disappointing effort and coach Sam Mitchell wasn't happy. But, they do have a good recent record against the Roos and I think they'll be able to finally get their first win.
The Hawks have beaten the spread in the last four games against North Melbourne.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-27 at this venue since 2021. Hawthorn are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
