Our best bet for Saturday's AFL Preliminary Final between Hawthorn and Brisbane is the Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.90, with all eight of the Lions' MCG finals since 2022 going over the total points and Cam Rayner kicking a goal in nine of his last ten games at the ground.
The Brisbane Lions look to make their fourth consecutive Grand Final, with the Hawks standing in their way. Will Chris Fagan's men be too good, or can the Hawks make their first Grand Final since 2015?
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions
What a contest we have at the MCG on Saturday evening, with the Lions marginal favourites off the back of their demolition job on the Crows.
Brisbane did belt the Hawks recently at the Gabba, winning by 67 points in Round 22, but don't expect a similar scoreline this time around.
Sam Mitchell will no doubt make some major adjustments this time around, but will it be enough against a Lions outfit full of firepower?
Leg 1 - Over 188.5 Total Points
The Lions don't generally play in low-scoring grinds. At least one team is going to kick a score, and we should see the total points clear.
Brisbane has the highest total points coverage rate in the AFL season, going at 72%, which includes nine of their last 12 games.
At the MCG, it's even more evident in finals. Since 2022, the Lions have played in eight finals matches at the MCG and all eight have gone over the total points. Their last five games at the MCG have gone over the total points, and in these twilight conditions on Saturday we should see plenty of goals.
Leg 2 - Dylan Moore 15+ Disposals
Dylan Moore hasn't had an outstanding year compared to what we've seen in past years, but his last nine games have shown enough.
Moore has averaged 18.8 disposals from his last nine, hitting 15+ disposals in eight of those games.
Over his career, Moore has been consistent against the Lions, averaging 18.3 disposals across seven games and hitting 15+ disposals in all seven.
Leg 3 - Cam Rayner 1+ Goals
Does play well at the MCG, and does play well against the Hawks.
Cam Rayner had a career-best outing in Brisbane's win over Adelaide last week, and although backing it up can be an issue for Rayner, this scenario maps out nicely for him.
Rayner has kicked a goal in nine of his last ten games at the MCG, including two goals in each of the last two Preliminary Finals. Against the Hawks over his career, Rayner has kicked at least one goal in ten of 11 games, totalling 18 goals against Hawthorn dating back to 2018.
Leg 4 - Hugh McCluggage 3+ Tackles
Was certainly more involved in Brisbane's win last week, finishing with three tackles, and should do so again in this Preliminary Final.
Despite an underwhelming year, McCluggage has recorded 3+ tackles in five of his last seven games.
In finals, McCluggage has had 3+ tackles in ten of his last 12 finals matches, and he's produced big tackle numbers against the Hawks across his career, hitting 3+ in his last six games against Hawthorn where he's averaged 6.5 tackles.
Same Game Multi
Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles = $5.90
