Our best bet for Sunday's AFL Preliminary Final between Sydney and Fremantle is the Fremantle 1-39 / Johnson 15+ Disposals / Treacy 2+ Goals / Curnow 2+ Goals Same Game Multi at $5.50, with the Dockers ranked second for restricting points from defensive half this season and Josh Treacy kicking 2+ goals in each of his last four games against the Swans.
The Swans enter this as underdogs but showed what they're still capable of in their Qualifying Final win over the Lions despite an undermanned squad. Can they cause another upset against the Dockers?
Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers
Can the Swans pull off the impossible and reach this year's Grand Final? They enter as underdogs, and for good reason. They'll be without Heeney, Warner, Blakey and Mills for this Preliminary Final against the Dockers.
Fremantle's second half against the Swans in Round 18 was as explosive as we've seen from any team this season. This game won't be at Optus Stadium which makes the task a more difficult one, but the Dockers will enter with a level of confidence off the back of how they played last week against the Cats.
Leg 1 - Fremantle 1-39
What Sydney did to Brisbane in the Qualifying Final was simply incredible, but I don't think Fremantle's system will allow the Swans the same luxuries they had in Week 1.
The Swans scored 55 points from defensive half against the Lions, with Sydney ranked number one for defensive half scoring in the competition this year. Unfortunately for the Swans though, the Dockers are the second best team at restricting points from defensive half this season, which was on display in Fremantle's Round 18 win over Sydney with their second-half onslaught.
The Crows are ranked first for restricting points from defensive half this season and beat the Swans in Round 19 at the SCG.
I don't see Fremantle blowing out the Swans. Throughout the year they didn't beat any of the teams that made finals by 40+ points, and it's more likely this margin is within three goals.
Leg 2 - Matthew Johnson 15+ Disposals
An integral piece to this Dockers midfield mix, mainly playing as a wing but also tasked with defensive midfield roles. He may run with Gulden in this Preliminary Final.
Johnson has hit 15+ disposals in 14 of his last 15 games, falling one short in the Qualifying Final against the Hawks where most Dockers were poor.
He's played well against the Swans over his career, hitting 15+ disposals in his last five games against them, including 20+ in four of those. He recorded 24 disposals in Fremantle's Round 18 win.
Leg 3 - Josh Treacy 2+ Goals
Has played well against the Swans in recent years, and was close to best-on-ground in their Round 18 win, kicking four goals to go with 18 disposals.
The big man is definitely due for a big finals performance. He was poor in their loss to Hawthorn, and although he was solid last week against Geelong, he still only finished with one goal.
Treacy's record against Sydney stacks up though. He's kicked 12 goals from their last four games, kicking 2+ on all four occasions.
Leg 4 - Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals
Key forwards can get a hold of the Dockers, and Curnow caused them huge issues in Round 18 kicking five goals.
Oscar McDonald is probably the matchup here, which has to work in Curnow's favour. The Coleman Medalist has played well against Fremantle in recent times, kicking 2+ goals in the last five games he's faced them and combining for 17 goals in those games.
Curnow has been huge at the SCG lately, kicking 2+ goals in six of his last seven at the ground, including four games with 5+ goals, a total of 29 goals from those seven.
Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles = $5.90
