From the Trader's Desk - Winx Stakes Day
This week's headline play is the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Randwick, with Autumn Glow our primary selection at 5.5 units at $1.90. Gringotts is our each way play at $26 win and $4.20 place, while King of the Sea and Boniface are our strongest Traders' Best Bets at 3 units apiece.
Randwick takes centre stage this weekend as the first Group 1 of the new season takes place with the running of the Winx Stakes. Supported by a strong undercard, let's take a look at the key races and who our traders are targeting in early markets.
Feature Races
Randwick
Winx Stakes - Randwick - 1400m G1
Good contest for the first Group 1 of the season. The market tells you it's a match race between Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi and it's hard to argue, especially first up at 1400m. Autumn Glow comes off a failed run at 2000m last start, this suits her much better and the camp has been open in saying she's forward. Gets the run of the race from the draw and looks hard to hold out. The $1.90 currently on offer looks enticing simply off her SP profile and the fact that I think she's in front of Sheza Alibi in the run.
Sheza Alibi I think has the more upside of the two and is potentially more brilliant, but gate one is just horrid. Likely three or four back the paint and will need the gaps at the right time. Can see the market chipping at Beiwacht or Lindermann from a map perspective if on pace, with the latter having trialled particularly well. If there's to be an upset, I think it could be Gringotts who has similarly trialled up enormous and is well suited at 1400m. Gets a great run from the draw and is an underrated galloper.
Autumn Glow @ $1.90 (5.5 Units)
Gringotts @ $26 / $4.20 EW (0.2 Units Win / 1.5 Units Place)
Silver Shadow Stakes - Randwick - 1200m G2 - 3YO Fillies
The three-year-old fillies line up here in the first leg of the princess series. Not a star-studded field in my opinion so looking to take on a few of those towards the pointy end of the market. Agrarian Girl boasts some nice form from her two-year-old campaign but looks a speedy type and vulnerable at six furlongs. Striking Alibi I have no idea what to make of having transferred stables from the west to Chris Waller. She won on debut at 60/1 then failed at $14 in the Karakatta. Trialled nice enough but I couldn't possibly have. Pembrey draws awkward. Cherry Bombshell trialled nicely and up against the top liners. Love the way she went out with a win at this course and distance, but I don't love the rider here. Bangkok Hottie looked the winner first up before potentially just giving out late. Comes on from that and the race fitness may be to her benefit. Global Goal very interesting. Out of this camp they are usually looking for further, but the Friendly Fire form reads ok and I liked her trials. $13 looks a good price to find out in a race that looks very open.
Bangkok Hottie @ $8.00 (0.7 Units)
Global Goal @ $11.00 (0.5 Units)
Toy Show Quality - Randwick - 1100m G3
Not much of a field this year for the sprinters with Apocalyptic the headline horse resuming from what was a lacklustre autumn campaign. She has trialled sharply for this, it's just whether or not the 1100m is her go, but a small field and a bit of speed on paper does see her set up well. I can't take the shorts. Savvy Hallie was the one to knock her off last prep, but she doesn't get it all her own way on Saturday on the map. Prima Bella a question mark at 1100m. I'm happy to have something small on Karinska here who is likely needing further but sprinted every bit as well as Apocalyptic first up last prep. She's moved nicely at the trials and in a small field I would not at all be surprised to see her sit off a hot speed and hit the line.
Traders' Best Bets
Randwick Race 1 - Isawyou
Scratched from an easier race at Hawkesbury on Thursday which is a nice pointer. Question marks on the form out of his maiden but had no right to win. Tough race here with a capacity field but think he has a bit of upside and happy to be on at double figures.
Isawyou @ $10.00 / $3.30 EW (0.5 Units Win / 2 Units Place)
Randwick Race 4 - King of the Sea
Resuming stayer who was very good in his first Australian prep without winning. Finds a weak BM race first up at the mile with McDonald going aboard.
King of the Sea @ $2.60 (3 Units)
Randwick Race 5 - Boniface
Should have won last start without traffic issues when the market loved him. Peaks out to 2000m.
Sandown Race 7 - Extragalactic
Will be the best horse in the race, just whether the 1000m first up is too sharp. Sandown and with speed on I think she can get over the top. Monitor the track pattern and bet accordingly.
Extragalactic @ $4.20 (1.6 Units)
Running Total: -19.1 Units
Big Bets
Where the money has been going across the weekend's major meetings.
Randwick
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 4 No.1 | King of the Sea | $3,000 | $2.90 |
| Race 5 No.5 | Boniface | $5,000 / $2,000 | $3.20 / $3.30 |
| Race 7 No.1 | Cherry Bombshell | $2,000 | $6.00 |
| Race 9 No.8 | Autumn Glow | $10,000 / $6,000 | $1.95 / $1.95 |
| Race 10 No.1 | Columbia Blue | $2,000 | $4.40 |
Sandown
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 2 No.5 | Cruiserweight | $2,000 | $3.40 |
| Race 3 No.9 | Think Giant | $3,000 | $3.40 |
| Race 4 No.5 | First Chorus | $5,000 | $2.75 |
| Race 8 No.7 | Gold Coast Belle | $2,000 | $3.80 |
