Our best bet for Sunday's AFL Round 23 clash between the Western Bulldogs and Carlton Blues is the Under 173.5 Total Points / Freijah 15+ Disposals / Cerra 20+ Disposals / Cowan 15+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $4.60, with the Bulldogs missing Bontempelli, English, Darcy and Dale and Carlton featuring in unders in nine of their 12 games under Josh Fraser.
The Bulldogs enter Round 23 depleted including managing Marcus Bontempelli. Can they cause a major upset against the Blues juggernaut?
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues
The Western Bulldogs enter Round 23 without two of their most important players in Tim English and Marcus Bontempelli, who join Sam Darcy and Bailey Dale on the sidelines.
As a result, the Blues are red-hot favourites, but it's a position they've previously struggled to be in, with this now emerging as a danger game.
A Blues win will lock them into the wildcard round. Can Carlton hold their nerve?
Leg 1 - Under 173.5 Total Points
They've built a reputation as featuring in high scoring games in recent times, but it's been quite the contrary in 2026 for the Western Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs have the lowest overs coverage rate in the AFL this season, with only six of their 21 games going over, including just one of their last seven.
As for Carlton, since Josh Fraser took the helm they've been a big unders team, with nine of their 12 games going under the total points.
Expect the Blues to put the stranglehold on a team that's scored 80+ just three times from their last nine games.
Leg 2 - Joel Freijah 15+ Disposals
There's no real pattern or consistency from Bevo with his midfield mix, but we did see Joel Freijah attend 61% of centre bounces last week, and without Bontempelli we should see him around that mark again, if not greater.
Freijah had 17 disposals last week against North Melbourne, and has hit 15+ disposals in his last three games, despite overall having a quiet 2026.
With the extra run around the ball though, it's hard not to see Freijah hit 15 in this.
Leg 3 - Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals
Defenders fill up against the Bulldogs, and Adam Cerra has moved behind the ball with Nic Newman out, looking like a completely different player.
Cerra was injured early against the Pies a few weeks back, but if we remove that game from the sample, from Round 17 onwards Cerra has averaged 22.6 disposals per game hitting 20+ in all five games.
He has been using the ball well from half back, and will split responsibilities with Ollie Florent as the designated kicker.
Leg 4 - Lachlan Cowan 15+ Disposals
Another defender in Carlton's back-six that should get a fair bit of ball against the Bulldogs.
Cowan had 20 disposals when he played the Bulldogs earlier this season, and has been averaging 16.1 disposals per game under Josh Fraser.
He has hit 15+ disposals in three of his last four games, and we think we'll see Cowan push 20 once again.
Same Game Multi
Under 173.5 Total Points / Freijah 15+ Disposals / Cerra 20+ Disposals / Cowan 15+ Disposals = $4.60
