Our best bet for Thursday's NRL Round 22 clash between the North Queensland Cowboys and Sydney Roosters is the Cowboys +5.5 / Under 48.5 / Nawaqanitawase to Score Same Game Multi at $6.00, with the Cowboys one of just five sides to beat the Roosters this year and nine of Sydney's last ten games falling under 48.5 points.
Two teams at opposing ends of the eight clash to open Round 22 of the NRL this Thursday, with the Cowboys taking on the Roosters in Townsville.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters
The Roosters edged their way into second place after netting their fifth-straight win last round.
Big picture, they've found a way to win without being convincing. Tight victories over the Knights and Storm most recently, with underwhelming showings against the Eels and Broncos before that.
For the Cowboys, they've been hot and cold. A searing performance to upset the Panthers was followed up by a tight win over the Sea Eagles then a big loss to the Dolphins. Last week, they got past Brisbane 18-10.
Leg 1 - Cowboys +5.5
North Queensland are one of just five sides to beat the Roosters this year, pipping them 18-12 back in mid-May.
They've also been strong in Townsville, winning six of nine there this season.
While second-placed Sydney should have just enough to get over the line here, expect the hosts to cover the spread.
Leg 2 - Under 48.5 Points Total
Nine of the last ten games the Roosters have been involved in have fallen under 48.5 points total, including their last five straight.
The Cowboys are a little more mercurial, but have still had three matches under 48.5 in their last four.
A tight, grinding contest is the most likely outcome on Thursday night.
Leg 3 - Mark Nawaqanitawase to Score
Nawaqanitawase is unlucky to have not crossed over since Round 16, considering he began the season scoring 12 tries from his first 10 matches.
He's too good a player to stay off the scoreboard for much longer, and should add to his tally in this fixture.
Same Game Multi
Cowboys +5.5 / Under 48.5 / Nawaqanitawase to Score = $6.00
Value Bet
This time last month, the Cowboys beat the table-topping Panthers by 14 points.
Conversely, of the Roosters' five losses in 2026, four have been by 13+.
There's value in tipping the home side to win by a blowout, even if immediate form isn't pointing that direction.
