Our best bet for Friday's NRL Round 20 clash between the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm is the Storm +11.5 / Nawaqanitawase to Score / Warbrick to Score Same Game Multi at $5.20, with Melbourne's desperation and head-to-head dominance making them strong value to cover the spread at Allianz Stadium.
Round 20 of the 2026 NRL sees the Roosters take on the Storm in a fascinating Friday night blockbuster at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.
Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm
The third-placed Roosters come into this match pushing for a top-two finish, while the Storm are down in 10th, scrapping to even make the post-season at all.
Both sides are in decent nick, with four wins from their last five.
Most recently, Melbourne edged past the Titans thanks to a late try, while Sydney comfortably saw off the Eels.
Injuries and Origin play are a factor for each team this round, with Sam Walker returning for the Roosters and the Storm losing Jahrome Hughes.
Leg 1 - Storm +11.5
Melbourne have traditionally dominated this head-to-head, winning eight of the last nine meetings between these sides.
They're also the more motivated side, with desperation a factor as they fight to make the eight.
Their record on the road in 2026 (2-6) doesn't inspire confidence for an outright bet, but they should still cover a +11.5 spread at minimum.
Leg 2 - Mark Nawaqanitawase to Score
Sydney's Nawaqanitawase has been a brilliant finisher this season, scoring 12 tries from 12 matches plus two in Origin Game 2.
It's been a fortnight since he scored in the NRL, but before that he bagged five tries in two matches.
With Walker back driving things for the Roosters, expect more of their attack to be funnelled towards Nawaqanitawase's edge.
Leg 3 - Will Warbrick to Score
Warbrick is another consistent try scorer that should cross over in this match.
The Storm winger has been on the scoreboard in his last four appearances, including a hattrick in Round 16, and has 15 tries for the season.
Last time these two played, Warbrick found space down the edge and scored early in the second half. Expect him to do so again on Friday.
Same Game Multi
Storm +11.5 / Nawaqanitawase to Score / Warbrick to Score = $5.20
Value Bet
Both teams have skin in the game as far as the ladder goes, but the stakes are much higher for Melbourne.
A win here and they move within striking range of the top eight. A loss, and they potentially fall six points adrift of the cut off and may need to rely on other results to qualify.
For a team that's not missed out on the top eight since 2002, bar their salary-cap affected season in 2010, this is the kind of spot where Melbourne find a way to win.
