The best two sides in the NRL clash to conclude Round 13, with the Panthers hosting the Warriors in Penrith on Sunday.
Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors
This is a true top-of-the-table derby, with the Panthers sitting first and the Warriors two points behind in second.
Neither side have lost since early April, and share just three defeats between them all season.
Penrith had the bye last round, before which they'd won five straight, beating the Dragons soundly at home most recently. They're sweating on a glut of Origin players ahead of this fixture though, with Nathan Cleary, Isaiah Yeo and Brian To'o all named in the reserves.
For New Zealand, they've won six on the bounce, including an impressive 42-12 thrashing of the Broncos a fortnight ago. They have their own Origin-inflicted absences, however, with Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell out, as well as Roger Tuiavasa-Sheck and Tanah Boyd due to injury.
Leg 1 - Under 44.5 Points Total
Not only are these two teams top of the NRL ladder, but they're also the top defensive sides.
Across 11 matches, the Panthers have leaked just 146 points while the Warriors have let in 194, an average of 13.3 and 17.6 per game. Each have only conceded more than 20 points twice.
With a bit of attacking power missing from each side, this should be a gritty, low-scoring affair.
Leg 2 - Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to Score
The last time Watene-Zelezniak failed to score was in Round 4. Since then, he's dotted down at least once per match, racking up 12 tries in seven matches.
The Warriors' winger is a ruthless finisher in the corner and a pivotal piece of the Kiwis' attack.
He's also got two tries off intercepts this season, so is a chance to score even if New Zealand aren't dominating.
Leg 3 - Thomas Jenkins to Score
Jenkins began 2026 with a bang, running in 16 tries in the first seven weeks. Since then he's cooled, failing to add to his tally for three rounds.
But against the Dragons he reacquainted himself with the line, netting a double in the first half.
With To'o unlikely to be playing, the Panthers will lean on Jenkins even more than usual as a finisher in their attacking structures.
Same Game Multi
Under 44.5 / Watene-Zelezniak to Score / Jenkins to Score = $8.00
Value Bet
If Penrith are without their four Origin players, what already feels like a 50/50 contest would swing strongly in the favour of New Zealand.
Even if the likes of Cleary and Yeo do make the field, they emptied the tank on Wednesday to get New South Wales up in Game 1, and may well not have it in them to give it all in a top-of-the-table clash so soon.
The Warriors, however, will be stinging from their finals loss to Penrith last year, and should throw the kitchen sink at this one.
